Monday, January 09, 2023
Are Stocks In a New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
On Friday the S&P 500 was the highest since mid-December - will the short-term uptrend continue?
The S&P 500 index gained 2.28% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. The broad stock market’s gauge broke above its recent trading range and it went the highest since December 15, as the daily high was at 3,906.19.
The broad stock market is expected to open 0.5% higher this morning, so stock prices will likely extend their short-term advance. There may be a selling pressure and some profit-taking action as the market gets closer to the resistance level of around 3,920-3,930, marked by the previous local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:
Monday, January 09, 2023
Stock Market Bad Is the New Good / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
Fitting summary of S&P 500 rally – we‘ve seen one of the largest 2y yields daily declines on slowing wage inflation. ISM Services PMIs also added to the Fed hawkishness reappraisal. Squeezing the bears, credit markets were confirming with a risk-on turn likewise.
Daily market breadth was really good, and spells that the move isn‘t over in the least. It progressed fast on the double punch – NFPs not coming in too hot, and real economy slowdown. Where does that leave us? With more prospects for LEIs moving lower, real estate declines, earnings downgrades and ultimately unemployment increase.
All in the name of fighting inflation, after the transitory debacle I called Apr 2021 vocally. Now, the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy (and ready to overdo it), and its targets of CPI below 5% in 2023 and at 2.5% in 2024, are too rosy.
Apart from the shape of the recession, and how well it would be cushioned by the U.S. consumer (look at confidence, expectations, retail sales, deliquencies etc), the key questions are just how far the Fed would take the Fed funds rate, and how long it wishes to keep it at its own evolving definition of a restrictive level.
Sunday, January 08, 2023
ASML Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Sunday, January 08, 2023
Will Gold Manage to Break Above Its Mid-2022 Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started this year with a quick rally, but it was mostly erased. It’s still above its mid-2022 high, but will it stay there for much longer?
Is It All Bearish?
Sunday, January 08, 2023
Stagflation to Terrorize the US Economy in 2023 / Economics / Stagflation
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver markets got off to a strong start in the first couple days of trading this year before running into some selling pressure on Thursday – only to bounce back again on Friday morning.A superficially strong jobs report has raised expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and boosted the U.S. dollar on foreign exchange markets. Metals futures traders reflexively responded by hitting the sell button yesterday only to turn around and buy today.
Investors often look at the first few trading days of a New Year for clues as to market trends that may develop for the rest of the year.
Financial News Report: U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as fresh evidence of a tight labor market deepened fears the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer than expected.
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Saturday, January 07, 2023
Qualcom QCOM Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Saturday, January 07, 2023
Financial Markets Outlook 2023 - Recession Will Create Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Submissions
Owen WIlliams writes: As we close out 2022, the worst year for stocks since 2008, we enter 2023 with an elevated risk of seeing an economic recession. From a U.S.-perspective, 2022 was a rare year during which both stocks and bonds suffered major losses. The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since the Volker era, with a 425 bp increase in the Fed Funds rate, penalized both major asset classes and will certainly have repercussions beyond 2022. As many market observers and Fed officials often remind us, interest rate hikes have a long and variable impact on the economy and markets.Before presenting our outlook for each asset class, we share a few general observations for the new year. First, we have never seen two consecutive years during which BOTH equities and bonds have had dismal years. One of the two asset classes should turn in a much stronger performance in 2023. As we explain below, our bet is on fixed income, although there are many attractive areas in equities (outside of the indexes) which are already worth moving into for a long-term position.
Second, we see the extreme reversal in central bank interest rate policy as all part of the Covid episode. The central bank monetary policy, along with the Federal government fiscal policy, reaction to the Covid shutdown was disproportionate, maintained too long, and in our opinion was unnecessary. Policy mistakes in one direction often must be reversed by policy mistakes in the other direction. We believe that this is what is playing out. The Covid episode in its entirety (including the lagged policy mistakes) will become what we refer to as a “watershed moment” for markets. A watershed moment is a major dislocation in markets after any type of excess, be it market-drive (Tech Bubble) or policy-driven (Covid and Housing Bubble). After each dislocation in the past 40 years, we have seen a change in market leadership. As we explain in the Equity section below, the change in leadership we are expecting in this cycle is for relative equity market leadership to shift to international stocks and away from U.S. stocks, which have massively dominated since the Financial Crisis.
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Saturday, January 07, 2023
What Triggered Silver Price Hiccup on the 5th of January? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed officials flexed their muscles during the last FOMC meeting. Silver tripped and fell in response, but that didn’t last long – why?The hawkish force was strong with this FOMC! The minutes from the last meeting of the Committee in December offered almost no dovish signals. In particular, the document doesn’t mention anything about the Fed’s pivot. Actually, we can read that “no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023”. That’s bad news for the precious metals, such as silver and gold.
What’s more, the minutes revealed the FOMC participants’ worries about the dovish hopes of investors. The Fed decided to emphasize that it’s not going to change its monetary policy and cut interest rates anytime soon, so investors shouldn’t bet on such a scenario. As the key paragraph says,
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Friday, January 06, 2023
How High Could the Impossible Stocks Bull Market Fly / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Temperate CPI sends stocks soaring to the moon with Fridays close of 3992 literally within touching distance of breaking above 4000. A week ago I wrote - "there may be more sideways to down price action given the drags we have this week with the Mid-terms and the 10th of November CPI release that could hold stocks back until after their conclusion. Nevertheless as long as the 3620 low holds then the pattern remains in tact for an eventual break higher of 3920 to target 4000+ where I would expect the S&P to achieve 4100 by Christmas and by the time this rally is done we may even see a break above 4300."
And so as soon as the CPI dark clouds were lifted the stock market soared, though you would not think it had if you read or watched any of the usual suspects, that's tweeters, youtubers, and the blogosfear. Not a bull in sight! Were they all caught with their short pants down? Glum faces all round! A collective case of WTH is going on! Confounded disbelief which I suspect will only lift towards the end of this rally when the herd FOMO's into the top similar to August.
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Friday, January 06, 2023
US Real Estate and Banking Warning Signs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Here's a paradox for you: The more investors are convinced of a trend, bullish or bearish, the LESS likely that trend is to continue.
Yep. The big crowd gets aboard right as the trend is ready to change.
What about now? Is now one of those moments?
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Friday, January 06, 2023
The Role of AI in Forex Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
According to estimates, the global forex market is worth $2.409 quadrillion, while some $6.6 trillion is traded each day across three separate trading session.
These figures have increased markedly since 2016, thanks to the rise of automated trading and the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) to help minimise risk and optimise returns over time.
But what exactly is AI, and how has it helped to change the world of forex trading over the course of the last decade or so?
Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Alphabet Google GOOG Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Is the US Dollar Building Strength to Push Gold Prices Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index is a key driver of gold prices (apart from real interest rates). How much strength has it shown recently?
In yesterday’s analysis, I compared the current situation in the precious metals to the one in stocks that we saw last year. It appears that the similarity remains up-to-date as gold is up in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words).
As you may recall, last year, stocks didn’t decline until the second session of the year. Of course, the history doesn’t have repeat itself to the letter, but I wouldn’t make too much of the upswing in the first few days of the year. Here’s what we wrote about this matter yesterday:
Do you remember the “January rally” that we saw in early 2022? It lasted less than two days. Stocks moved higher in the first session of the year, and they formed an intraday top during the second session of the year.
Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last SEP that was released in September.
And yet, the Deep State of Wall Street is busy telling investors that the Fed is almost done raising rates, hence, and a new bull market is right around the corner. But history proves this premise to be false. For example, during the preamble to the Great Recession, the Fed Funds Rate reached its apex in June of 2006 at 5.25%. It took 3 years for it to ascend to that level, up from the 1% starting level back in June of 2003. Ben Bernanke then began to cut rates in September of 2007; but the Great Recession began anyway in December of that same year. And, exactly one year from that first rate cut, the stock market went into freefall. This is another clear example of many throughout history that shows rate hikes work with a long lag.
Monday, January 02, 2023
CORSAIR CRSR Stock Analysis / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Price $18.2.P/E 57, EGF +56%, +27%
Corsair investors have paid the price due to bad company management, poor quality control of products where what one buys does not match the brand image, unfortunately when customers are once bitten they then tend to avoid that brand. On the plus side Corsair has been around for decades and has always had the potential to become something much bigger as we await the advent of Corsair Motherboards and perhaps eventually GPU board partners with the likes of Nvidia. In terms of earnings outlook then there are signs of life as EGF's suggest to expect earnings surprises ahead for both the next quarter and 2023, which is also evident on the stock price chart with most recent price action rising from a bone crushing low of $11 to approaching a doubling to $22 as the stock attempts to break above $18 resistance which would mark the END of Corsairs bear market.
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Monday, January 02, 2023
THE TWIN TOWERS OF BABEL ARE COMING DOWN EQUITIES AND BONDS / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When leveraged debt is money, what’s to worry?
For three hundred years, the banker’s ponzi-scheme of debt-based money brought wealth to the bankers and power to governments. Nothing lasts forever, however. In 2023, the dangers long dormant beneath the bankers’ debt-based markets are going to erupt.
BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other and 'what worked in the past won't work now' – December 8, 2022
A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock.
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager.
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Monday, January 02, 2023
Outrageous Gold Price Prediction for 2023 by Saxo Bank / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold will rocket to $3,000 next year – at least that’s what Saxo Bank says. Does this prediction make any sense though?Did you hope gold would break finally $2,000 in 2023? What if I told you that gold is going to soar to at least $3,000? Have I gone mad? No; that’s not my forecast, I only summarize the Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2023.
According to the publication, next year, the markets will finally discover “that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future”. In the spring, China will fully pivot away from its zero-Covid policy, unleashing demand and a new surge in commodity prices. Inflation will soar again, but this time it will coincide with the Fed’s easy monetary policy amid elevated market volatility and a recession. It will then become clear that the US central bank will fail on its 2% inflation mandate, sending gold prices much higher. The yellow metal is said to be additionally supported by the rising global liquidity and “geopolitical backdrop of an increasing war economy mentality”.
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Sunday, January 01, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold Is It Weird to Have Two Corrective Upswings Instead of One? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Here's how history rhymes in the precious metals market and what we can glean from recent movements in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
History tends to repeat itself. Not to the letter, but in general. The reason is that while economic circumstances change and technology advances, the decisions to buy and sell are still mostly based on two key emotions: fear and greed. They don’t change, and once similar things happen, people’s emotions emerge in similar ways, thus making specific historical events repeat themselves to a certain extent.
For example, right now, gold stocks are declining similarly to how they did in 2008 and in 2012-2013.
This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks, similar to what we saw in 2013 before the worst of the slide. This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks – something that we’ve also seen in 2013 before the biggest part of the slide.