Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast for 2008 - NO Recession

Economics / UK Economy Dec 24, 2007 - 12:43 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe UK economy is being hit hard by the ongoing credit crunch with its sizable financial sector under strain and the UK housing market finally showing signs of the long anticipated downturn after one of the biggest bull runs in history. These and much other bad news will undoubtedly hit the UK economy hard during 2008, and in advance of this the media has finally turned decidedly bearish with much speculation of a recession during 2008.


In the Telegraph last week - David Owen, chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Investment Bank, gave the odds of a recession in the UK during 2008 at 50%.

In The Independent today, Stephen King, the managing director of economics at HSBC warns that the Chancellors luck has run out and of the risks of a bust in the UK during 2008.

The opinion of my recent articles has been to expect growth of some 1.5% for the UK during 2008, therefore this technical analysis of GDP growth is to see if the economy is still on target for growth of 1.5% growth or if the increasingly bearish opinions of a recession are the more probable outcome.

Analysis of UK GDP Growth for 2008

UK GDP Growth Forecast 2008

Key points which stand out from the GDP chart are :

1. That Britain has enjoyed a remarkably stable growth trend during the last 13 years, oscillating between +4% and +1.5% growth with-in a clearly defined channel and easily recognizable cycles.

2. That third quarter GDP failed to reach the upper boundary of the growth channel which implies weakness.

3. That the GDP growth cycle is clearly signaling a downtrend with previous downtrend cycles converging to a target low in the third or fourth quarter of 2008.

4. That the first half of the trend tends to be the severest, therefore expect a sharp drop in the GDP growth rate during 1st quarter of 2008 (4th quarter 2007 - Christmas boost), then subsequent quarters.

5. That GDP Trend is targeting a downtrend to between +1.3 and +1.6%

The risks to the trend picture is that there will be a breakout to the downside, and therefore develop a new much weaker trend pattern than the chart suggests. This is possible given the UK housing bear market and the credit crisis. However whilst implying weaker growth, it does not mean that the UK will go into recession.

Conclusion

The forecast for UK GDP growth by the end of 2008 is for a an annualised growth rate of between 1% and 1.3%. This is marginally below the original expectation of growth of 1.5%. But does confirm that despite much bad news on the economic front, the UK looks set to not only avoid a recession during 2008, but seems likely to grow at a comfortable rate given the recession expectation circumstances. Also that the first half of the year will be much tougher in growth terms then the second half, which now allows me to complete the next analysis with more confidence on the prospects for the UK stock market.

Summary of Forecasts for 2008
Forecasts for 2007
UK House prices to fall by 7% - (22nd August 07) , Buy to Let Sector April 08 Crash UK house prices to rise by 3.5% (Dec 06)
UK Interest rates to fall to 5% from 5.75% by Sept 08 (18th Sept 07) Peak at 5.75% between Aug and Oct 07 (Dec 06 - 5%)
UK Inflation - Fall to below 3% RPI from January 08 4.4% RPI peak (26th Nov 07) None
US Economy 2008 - NO Recession - GDP Growth of 1.5% to 3% (11th Dec 07) None
UK Economy 2008 - NO Recession - GDP Growth of 1%-1.3% (24th Dec 07) None
UK Stock Market - Pending FTSE 100 to End 2007 at 6900 - (Dec 06 - 6220)
US Stock Market - Pending Dow Jones End 2007 at marginally higher new high then Dec 06 - 12,600 (Dec 06 - 12340)
Gold 2008 - Pending Gold to end 2007 at $920 (Jan 07 - $636)
British Pound 2008 - Pending British Pound to Break above £/$2.00 (4th Jan 07 - 1.95)
Emerging Markets Outlook 2008 - Pending China & Eastern European stocks to outperform India and other stock markets (Dec 06)
Stock Picks for 2008 - Pending Suggested portfolio - (Dec 06)

 

Your analyst thinking about how rare and brief GDP contractions tend to be, compared to the amount of speculation in anticipation thereof.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright (c) 2005-07
Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 100 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Johnny Onith
03 Feb 09, 06:00
Embaressed

I hope, Nadeem, that you're truely embarressed with yourself after this piece of 'analysis' which not only suffered from a complete lack of logic or rational basis at the time, but has now been prooved to be utterlly and totally wrong. I can only believe that your 20 years of experience has been 20 years of errors and mistakes.


Nadeem_Walayat
03 Feb 09, 06:47
Recession Forecasting

1. The mainstream forecating organisation, OECD, IMF, treasury, IMF etc were forecasting growth for 2008 of between 2% and 2.7%

2. My ongoing analysis concluded in April 2008, that the UK was heading for an imminent recession, long before the mainstream press and forecasting organisations caught on.

Therefore contrary to your above assertion, if you actually took the time to check the facts as of Dec 07, you will see that I was and remain AHEAD of the CURVE and therefore beat the OECD, IMF, UK Treasury and many other in terms of being closer to the eventual outcome then they were at the time.

All forecasts are best guesses that need to be reappraised in response to real-time events, especially black swan events such as Financial Armageddon during Sept / Oct 2008.


David Hatchman
04 Mar 09, 00:30
Your Forecast 08

Nadeem,

Your classic mistake is that you have used official statistics to try and grapple with constructing economic forecasts. You have been either too engrossed in this or blind to what has actually been happening in the UK economy since 2000, the writing, writ very large was on the wall then. Governments ignored it economist ignored it – at least classically trained ones did and commentators tended to spin massive spurious positives out of alarming FACTS.

Some of us anticipated, dare I say forecast, very accurately the current situation at a range of 4 years and have been able to benefit greatly from it.


Nadeem_Walayat
07 Mar 09, 13:57
UK GDP Forecast 2008 - 2009

2000 ? The country boomed economically from 2000 to 2007, so that statement resembles that of a perma bear / doom variety that tend to miss the booms but eventually prove right, given enough time.

UK GDP 2008 - The Facts

2008 ended with GDP at +0.71%

The forecast as of Dec 07 was for between +1% and +1.3%

This is against the majority of forecasts at the time which were for 2008 GDP of between +2% and +2.7%.

Therefore forecast made in Deceber 2007 proved highly accurate, however it has prompted me to undertake far more indepth analysis for all future forecasts with a view to improving on the accuracy as evidenced by subsquent forecasts, such as that of Febuary 2009

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8926.html

The Feb 2009 forecast for GDP contraction of 6.3% for the recession and -4.75% for 2009 year. This is far in excess of mainstream forecasts that range from -1% by the government to -3% IMF / OECD. Whilst a 100% hit is highly improbable, however as 2008 proved far more accurate than that of forecasting institutions that recieve funding in the hundreds of millions, so will my forecast for 2009 by year end prove far more accurate than that of the likes of the Treasury, IMF or OECD which as far as my analysis concludes have failed to comprehend the degree to which the UK economy has fallen off the edge of a cliff.



Regards

Nadeem Walayat

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules