Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Trade Protectionism and Global Economic Contraction / Economics / Global Economy
By: Global_Research
Prof. Rodrigue Tremblay writes: “I almost went down on my knees to beg [President] Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot Tariff.”... “That Act intensified nationalism all over the world.” Thomas Lamont, banker and economic adviser, June 1930
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Consumers Will Lead the Way to Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Hans_Wagner
In recent recessions, consumer spending led the economy in the recovery. Many investors are counting on the same thing, taking place during this recovery. They will be disappointed.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Economic Depression: Anatomy of a Lost Decade / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: If you want a real look at what's headed this way, ask Hideko Toyotomi.
When Japan's so-called "Lost Decade" began with a bang in the early 1990s, she was an "OL" - an office lady - working in one of Japan's mightiest corporations and she kept her job, despite the downturn.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Are the US Consumers Ready to Go Shopping Again? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mark_OByrne
The recent Consumer Confidence survey conducted in the US revealed a surprising increase in consumer confidence for the month of May. In marked contrast to the previous few months, May's figure was the highest it has been since September 2008. However, while better than at the start of the year, the figure remains at historically depressed levels. Furthermore, US house prices have dropped over 18% in March from the same period last year.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Jobless Graduates Face Dismal Jobs Market / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
With unemployment rates soaring towards 9% and poised to hit 11% by the end of the year, college graduates are facing the toughest job market in years.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Labour Attempts to Ignite UK Consumer Mini Boom as ONS Revises Retail Sales Methodology / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The ONS finally came clean to confirm that the retail sales statistics are inaccurate and that it had revised the methodology in the way it calculates retail sales data, the data revision has ironically resulted in a better than expected boost to retail sales for a rise of 0.9% for April 09. The boost in retail sales data is inline with other observed trends in many areas of the economy which are feeding through towards a summer bounce in sectors of the economy such as for house prices in response to unprecedented actions of zero interest rates, 12% budget deficit spending and printing £150 billion out of thin air to buy government bonds and thus force down longer term interest rates.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Global Debt Deleveraging Recession Gets Worse as Government Deficit Grows / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
Things That Go Bump in the Night
A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See
The Global Recession Gets Worse
Where Will the Money Come From?
The Paradox of Deficits
From ghoulies and ghosties, And long-leggedy beasties, And things that go bump in the night, Good Lord, deliver us! --Old Scottish Prayer
There is something that is bumping around in my worry closet. The bond market is not behaving as if there is deflation in our future, and the dollar is getting weaker. Unemployment keeps rising, but most of all, the US government deficit looks to be spinning out of control. This week we look at all of this and take a tour around the world to see what is happening. There is a lot of interesting material to cover.
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Saturday, May 23, 2009
Deflation Hits Direct Mail Industry / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
On May 1, 2009 the US Postal Service issued a Notice of Market-Dominant Price Adjustment.
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Saturday, May 23, 2009
Depressed America No Longer the Safe Harbor It Was For Investors / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: Excuses from Wall Street and Washington DC, we have not hit the bottom with job losses, Currency crisis coming in the fall, IMF a creditors cartel,
we find ourselves faced with major growing unemployment, falling wages and via inflation and ever lower purchasing power, Most major banks and brokerage houses are insolvent, Finances at the state and local levels are a mess.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Economic Theory and Too Big to Fail Corporations / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Michal_Matovcik
Some thoughts for friday. Week before the GM is stamped finally “Too Big To Fail”
Friday, May 22, 2009
Arnold Schwarzenegger Terminates California's Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
Iconic bodybuilder, actor and politician Arnold Schwarzenegger is having really bad times now. The population of California rejected his package to balance the budget in the economically stricken state. A huge ‘black hole’ - $15 billion - appeared in the budget of California. The Californian electorate is seriously concerned about their governor.
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Thursday, May 21, 2009
Bankrupt Britain's Debt Credit Ratings Crash / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On the day when the Government announced a surge in net public borrowing for April 09 totaling £8.5 billion against £1.8 billion a year earlier (the deficit is the difference between what the government earns against what it spends), the S&P credit agency cut Britain's credit worthiness to negative from stable which puts Britain's AAA credit rating into question, the direct impact of which would be that Britain would near immediately be required to pay a higher interest rate on the continuing huge surge of bonds being issued in advance of the 2010 general election, as Labour throws all of the fiscal rules out of the window in an attempt at turning the economy around by 2010 to prevent a Westminister wipeout.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Can President Obama’s Policies Heal the US Economy? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Submissions
Frank Shostak writes: In his interview with the New York Times on May 3, 2009, President Obama said. I know how to ask good questions of my doctor. But ultimately, he's the guy with the medical degree. So, if he tells me, you know what, you've got such-and-such and you need to take such-and-such, I don't go around arguing with him or go online to see if I can find a better opinion than his.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Fed's Economic Forecast Worsens; Still Ridiculously Optimistic / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The peak in initial claims might be in but the peak in unemployment is nowhere close. Continuing claims hit 6.66 million, setting a record for the 16th straight week.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
U.S. The Toll Booth Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Submissions
Michael Hudson writes: It looks like bookstores are about to be swamped this summer and fall by advisories which publishers commissioned a year ago, as the economy was going off the rails. The preferred marketing strategy is to offer advice by celebrity insiders on how to restore the happy 1981-2007 era of debt-leveraged price gains for real estate, stocks and bonds. But the Bubble Economy was so debt-leveraged that it cannot reasonably be restored.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Financial Implosion and Economic Stagnation, Back To The Real Economy- Part2 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Global_Research
A Political Economy - Economics in its classical stage, which encompassed the work of both possessive-individualists, like Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Thomas Malthus, and John Stuart Mill, and socialist thinkers such as Karl Marx, was called political economy. The name was significant because it pointed to the class basis of the economy and the role of the state. 39 To be sure, Adam Smith introduced the notion of the “invisible hand” of the market in replacing the former visible hand of the monarch. But, the political-class context of economics was nevertheless omnipresent for Smith and all the other classical economists. In the 1820s, as Marx observed, there were “splendid tournaments” between political economists representing different classes (and class fractions) of society.
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Thursday, May 21, 2009
Financial Implosion and Economic Stagnation, Back To The Real Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Global_Research
John Bellamy Foster and Fred Magdoff write: But, you may ask, won’t the powers that be step into the breach again and abort the crisis before it gets a chance to run its course? Yes, certainly. That, by now, is standard operating procedure, and it cannot be excluded that it will succeed in the same ambiguous sense that it did after the 1987 stock market crash. If so, we will have the whole process to go through again on a more elevated and more precarious level. But sooner or later, next time or further down the road, it will not succeed… We will then be in a new situation as unprecedented as the conditions from which it will have emerged. —Harry Magdoff and Paul Sweezy (1988) 1
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
One Thought Could Change Your Life / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Michal_Matovcik
One thought could change your life, your wealth, your trading day, your happiness. Mostly they come and go, but few stay. This is something that you can find usefull, it’s not only about trading, but it could change your feeling of the market and make you become more resistant to “green shoots”, government stupidity, manipulation and many other things. There is no need to comply with these thoughts, the purpose is to start thinking.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Economic Recovery or Economy Resetting At Lower Activity Levels? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The financial channels are abuzz with talk of a recovery, but we're not out of the woods yet. In fact, the deceleration in the rate of economic decline is not a sign of recovery at all, but proof that the economy is resetting at a lower level of activity. That means the recession will drag on for some time no matter what the Fed does. The problem is the breakdown in the securitzation markets which has cut off the flow of easy credit to consumers and businesses. The credit-freeze has caused a sharp drop in retail, auto sales, furniture, electronics, travel, global trade etc.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
UK CPI Inflation +2.4%, RPI Deflation -1.2% Hits Forecast Target / Economics / Deflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK RPI Inflation data of minus 1.2% for April 09 represents severe deflation in the official data. Whilst the Governments preferred CPI inflation measure has recorded a smaller decline to 2.3% which still stubbornly puts it above the Bank of England's target rate of 2%. RPI deflation is not surprising given the panic interest rate cuts from 5% at the beginning of October 2008 to just 0.5% by the last cut of March 2009, these cuts in interest rates coupled with quantitative easing aka "money printing" to drive down long-term interest rates and hence mortgage rates is resulting in real deflation for those with large mortgages of as much as minus 5%, therefore this is providing for mini 'temporary' cash flow boom for those mortgage holders that have secure employment during the recession and therefore contributing to the summer bounce in house prices.