Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 08, 2009
Is the U.S. Economy Heading for Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation
By: Gerard_Jackson
Irrespective of how Obama's media supporters try to spin it the unemployment situation is grave and still deteriorating. This was not supposed to happen. According to his economic advisors the situation would be disastrous unless congress rushed through Obama's stimulus package. Dr. Christine Romer -- one of Obama's chief economic advisors -- predicted unemployment would hit 8.8 per cent unless swift action was undertaken.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
London Retail Price Inflation Falls the Most Over the Past 12 Months / Economics / Inflation
By: HBOS
London experienced the largest decline in retail prices1 over the past year with a 2.8% fall between 2008 quarter one and 2009 quarter one, according to new research by Halifax. This was more than twice the 1.3%* fall for the UK as a whole. However, despite this, the overall price level in the capital remains higher than any other UK region. All 12 UK regions recorded a decline in retail prices over the past 12 months.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Optimistic Unemployment and Housing Market Forecasts Looking Silly / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Economics may be the "dismal science" but economists as a group sure seem to be an optimistic lot. Yes, there are a handful of "doomers" like Nouriel Roubini but most economists did not see the recession coming until it was already 10 months old.
Please consider unemployment forecasts. The Fed forecast unemployment at 8.4% in 2009 and the "adverse forecast" was at 10.3% in 2010.
Sunday, June 07, 2009
U.S. Treasury Spread Model Suggests Economic Recovery has Started / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“According to the New York Fed, ‘Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.’
“The New York Fed just released its latest ‘Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread’, with data through May 2009, and the Fed’s recession probability forecast through May 2010. The NY Fed’s model uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates (currently at 3.11%) to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
U.S. Fed Throttling the Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Interest Rates
By: Andy_Sutton
Despite the calm appearance on the economic waters of late, there is quite a bit of turbulence building beneath the surface on a multitude of fronts. Several developments have emerged that fly directly in the face of the idea that we’re headed for a green shoots recovery. Even more surprising, when you take a deeper look at these issues, some rather remarkable inconsistencies emerge in that the methods being used in some critical areas virtually guarantee that they will not be successful. We’ll take a look at two of these areas, but first, let’s discuss manoeuvring room.
Friday, June 05, 2009
U.S. and European Economies Accelerating Decent into Marxism / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Ty_Andros
Fingers of Instability, Part III:
The Banks
Command Performance
Wealth Creation
Descent into Marxism!
Introduction - The descent into MARXISM is accelerating at a startling rate. Public servants and blind ideologues are stopping at nothing to achieve CREEPING CONTROL over the private sector of the United States of America. As the US economy continues to plummet, the mainstream media continues to talk about GREEN shoots and recovery to get the sheeple, er ... people to FEEL GOOD long enough to get their plans ENSHRINED in law. Once passed, never repealed, and essential to your future security.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
U.S. Jobs Contract 17th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Soars to 9.4% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April Employment Report.
Friday, June 05, 2009
Ending of Deflation Fears, Big Inflation Coming / Economics / Inflation
By: Zeal_LLC
At the height of the stock panic in late November, the flagship S&P 500 stock index had plunged 49% year-to-date. Fully 2/3rds of this decline happened in the 9 weeks leading into the panic lows! Naturally the psychological impact of such an epic selloff was utterly massive. Fear exploded to unprecedented extremes.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Claims Dips Green Shoots? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The string of 17 consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims ended today with slight dip in claims.
Continuing claims hit 6.788 million last week, setting a 17th consecutive record (revised slightly lower to 6.750 million). Today's number is 6.735 million, breaking the streak (assuming the number is not revised up later).
Thursday, June 04, 2009
United States Destined to Become the Great Britain of the 21st Century? / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
WHO ARE THOSE GUYS - Sheriff Ray Bledsoe: [to Butch and Sundance] You should have let yourself get killed a long time ago when you had the chance. See, you may be the biggest thing that ever hit this area, but you're still two-bit outlaws. I never met a soul more affable than you, Butch, or faster than the Kid, but you're still nothing but two-bit outlaws on the dodge. It's over, don't you get that? Your times is over and you're gonna die bloody, and all you can do is choose where.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
The First Steps towards Hyper-Inflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Paul_Tustain
Choose your poison: the trickle of excess cash or the trickle of excess bond redemptions...
NOT FOR THE first time the Financial Times says we gold buyers are "nuts" – a word which all too often follows on from "gold" in the financial media.
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Thursday, June 04, 2009
A Structural Change in the Global Debt Based Financial and Economic System / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Submissions
Brett Jordaan writes: What politicians and central bankers around the world are either neglecting to tell us, or to consider, is that the current economic crisis, now a global recession and fast becoming a depression, is a result of a fundamental structural shift in the very makeup of the world economy. The credit crisis is widely accepted as the trigger for the current economic woes, but those who take a broad view of the world will see that our current predicament was actually years in the making, and ultimately, inevitable. As inevitable as the collapse of a house of cards, or the implosion of a Ponzi scheme. In fact, the global monetary system actually fits the description of a Ponzi scheme.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
China Moves a Step Closer to Economic Superpower Status / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: When a Beijing court recently ordered three China automakers to pay more than $3 million in aggregate damages for allegedly selling a knockoff of an upscale German tour bus, it underscored that China is getting serious about intellectual property theft - one of the next major steps the Red Dragon needs to make as it evolves into a true global economic superpower.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
The False Economic and Stock Market Recoveries / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
Claus Vogt writes: The stock market has been jumping for joy over the last few days. Yet I can’t see exactly what investors are cheering about. Heck, two of America’s most prominent companies, GM and Chrysler, just declared bankruptcy!
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
ISM Report, Businesses Still Contracting, Economic Weakness Continues / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Institute for Supply Management Report On Business® shows the May 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM is Still Contracting, but at a lesser rate. As is often the case, details and the headline numbers suggest different things.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
GM Bankruptcy, There Goes The Country / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
Yesterday, after a painfully long death spiral, General Motors finally filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Oftentimes, bankruptcy portends rebirth. Unfortunately, the politically-inspired GM plan holds no such possibilities. Under the current deal, the restructuring of GM will cost taxpayers some $100 billion (after the hidden costs of interest and refinancing are included). Even then, it is highly unlikely that GM will ever be competitive or that its debts will ever be repaid. Far worse, the massive government bailout will delay rather than encourage broader economic recovery. And yet, U.S. stock markets rose on the GM announcement as if it were good news.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
The Geography of Global Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: STRATFOR
Peter Zeihan writes: The global recession is the biggest development in the global system in the year to date. In the United States, it has become almost dogma that the recession is the worst since the Great Depression. But this is only one of a wealth of misperceptions about whom the downturn is hurting most, and why.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Reagan Did What? The Fantasies of Paul Krugman / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: LewRockwell
William L. Anderson writes: Ronald Reagan has been dead for several years, but Paul Krugman continues to chase his ghost. In his "Reagan Did It" column, Krugman claims that until Reagan was elected, the U.S. financial system was in great shape and that government-created cartels in finance, communications, and transportation had enabled us to have a wonderful "equal-benefits-for-all" economy.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
The Austrian Cure for Economic Illness / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Don Miller writes: An ill person may have diabetes or an infection. When an economy becomes ill people lose their jobs and watch the value of their homes and stock portfolios fall.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Inflation or Deflation, Which is the Greater Risk Over the Next Five Years? / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I will not keep you in suspense. I believe that the greater risk for the global economy in general and the U.S. economy in particular is inflation, not deflation. I arrive at this conclusion both on secular and cyclical grounds.
Secular Factors
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