Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Fed’s Beige Book Paints a Rosier U.S. Economic Picture as Employment Improves / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, January 11th. In it, U.S. central bank officials included in the survey indicated that U.S. economic conditions in their respective regions seemed to have improved somewhat in December of 2011 compared with conditions observed the previous month.
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Thursday, January 19, 2012
Economic Reports Underscore More Positives of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Today’s economic reports present a bullish picture of the U.S economy. Industrial production in December was strong and optimism of homebuilders improved in January, while wholesale prices fell.
Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% during November. The 0.9% jump in factory production, which accounts for the bulk of total industrial production, stands out in today’s report after a 0.4% drop in November. Factory production rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in the fourth quarter vs. a 5.00% increase in third quarter that represents a rebound from the Japan disaster. Production of factory goods was widespread in December with wood products, primary metals, computers, machinery, motor vehicles, and aerospace equipment posting noticeable gains.
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Thursday, January 19, 2012
UK Inflation Mega-trend Second Anniversary Despite Continuing Delusional Deflation Propaganda / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation ended 2011 at 4.2% (December) coming down sharply from a peak of 5.2% (September) that despite the mainstream presses continuing academic backed falling inflation / deflation risk warnings remains at more than DOUBLE the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank whose primary remit is supposedly price stability. CPI 3% was supposed to have been the maximum level a break above which was supposed to trigger a series of panic measures to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to print money that to date officially totals £275 billion of electronic money printing that the fractional reserve banking system will eventually leverage to over £1 trillion for the primary objective for the monetization of government debt as warned of now 2 years ago in the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook (Free Download).
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
World Bank Global Economy Warning: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Jesse
In case your domestic financial press fails to deliver this important message to you so clearly, as the World Bank has done for the rest of the world's leadership.
Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.
Equities are pricing in a rosy scenario, but the bonds and precious metals are saying 'beware.'
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
India Economy 2012: What to Expect / Economics / India
By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous
The political situation in India remains murky, and elections will be held in key states early this year. Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven phases, which will unfold during most of February. Punjab, a significantly smaller state in terms of population, will also hold elections in January and March.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
China Economic Growth Far From Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, spoke to Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle about the Chinese economy and crisis in Europe.
O'Neill said that China's continued growth is "the most important thing in the world." On potential Greek default, he said that "China creates the equivalent of another new Greek economy every four months" and "Greece itself is not that important."
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
The Asian Coal Fired Economic Locomotive / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Andrew_McKillop
What If Its Thanksgiving But You Are The Turkey?
HOPING FOR GROWTH
Called the only rational strategy, but impossible in the current context, restoring economic growth in the debt-strapped OECD countries remains a religious-type hope for political and corporate leaders.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Expect a Global Economic Recession 2012 / Economics / Recession 2012
By: John_Mauldin
The "Quarterly Review and Outlook" from Hoisington Investment Management is one of the most significant pieces that crosses my desk – I try and drop everything else as soon as possible. This quarter's is no exception. The authors, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, get right down to brass tacks with their opening sentence: "As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio stands near 100%." They cite an influential 2010 historical study of high-debt-level economies around the world, by Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, that concluded that when a country's gross government debt rises above 90% of GDP, "median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more."
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).
Monday, January 16, 2012
Economic Crisis and the Theory of the Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jesus Huerta de Soto writes: The three years that have passed since the world financial crisis and subsequent economic recession hit have provided Austrian economists with a golden opportunity to popularize their theory of the economic cycle and their dynamic analysis of social conditions. In my own case, I could never have imagined at the beginning of 1998, when the first edition of my book Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles appeared, that 12 years later, due undoubtedly to a financial crisis and economic recession unparalleled in the world since the Great Depression of 1929, a crisis and recession which no other economic paradigm managed to predict and adequately explain, my book would be translated into 14 languages and published (so far) in nine countries and several editions (two in the United States and four in Spain).
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Global Aging Represents a Threat to World's Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: Barry_Elias
Sixty years ago, 34 developed nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had seven workers to support each retiree.
Today, there are only four workers per beneficiary.
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Friday, January 13, 2012
Keynesian Death By Debt Continues / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Debt constrains one's enjoyment of life. Without debt to repay, we could use our incomes solely for the pursuit of the good life. You get to define of what that consists, be it food and wine, debauchery or charitable deeds. With debt, life is miserable. Greece has learned that lesson. Spain and Portugal now know that. Those that lost their homes due to the bursting of the Federal Reserve's housing bubble know that. Seems just about everyone but Keynesian economists hiding in their academic cloisters, free of the real world, are fully aware of economic death through debt.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Euroland Factory Sector Posts Decline, Confirming Expectations of a Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen to watch and wait and did not take action after today’s meeting. The ECB has lowered the policy rate in the last two meetings to 1.00% from 1.50%. A preliminary report has indicated that real GDP of Germany contracted in the fourth quarter and German industrial production fell sharply in November.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
Increase in Initial U.S. Jobless Claims Could be a Timing Issue / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 399,000 during the first week of the year. Timing could be playing role in the large increase of initial jobless claims. The four-week moving average at 381,750 will be tracked closely to estimate if the recent downward trend of initial jobless claims has been reversed or if it is beginning of the year distortion. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, moved up 19,000 to 3.628 million.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
United States Coming Greek Moment, Collapse, No. Huge Losses, Guaranteed / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
I did a search on Google for "economic collapse" and "2011." I got over 7 million hits.
I read a short piece on the probability of social collapse. The author argues that complex systems require more energy. At some point, there is not enough energy to sustain the system. Then it collapses.
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
Tracking China’s Imports and Germany’s Exports / Economics / China Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Imports of China slowed to a 10.7% year-over-year growth in December 2011 (see Chart 1), the smallest increase since late-2009. Imports of China from Germany, the driver of economic growth in Europe, have posted a significant slowing, with the December increase amounting a paltry 4.2%, the smallest gain since October 2009. The broader implication of these trends is that not only is German business activity hit by a deceleration of imports of China but the intricate web of world trade has a wide reach and will translate into a setback in business conditions among other trading partners.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Outlook of Small Businesses Improves, But Still Short of Levels Seen in Good Economic Times / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index moved up to 93.8 during December from 92 in the prior month. The improvement is noteworthy and it is the highest since February 2011. However, the level of the index is within the range seen during the recession (see Chart 1).
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