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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Malaysia Bracing for Possible Indonesia Economic Meltdown / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Indonesia is the fifth largest economy in Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world. Thanks to the strong macro-economic reform and liberalization of its international trade. As a result a strong economic growth to the tune of 6-8% is achievable for the past few years. Since the last Asian Financial Crisis, Indonesia has made much stride in poverty eradication, economic growth and human capital development. To stabilize prices, Monetary Policy tools such as interest rates, liquidity management and macro-prudential measures are used. Other measures taken to ensure sustainable economic growth includes raising minimum wage, reduction in fuel subsidies, electricity and other essential items, increase cash payment to low income group and broaden the tax base.

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Economics

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Economic Forecasts and Drivers 2014 - The Fed, Inflation-Deflation, Interest Rates, Housing and Speculation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It's that time of year again, when we begin to think of what the next one will bring. I will be doing my annual forecast issue next week, but my friend Gary Shilling has already done his and has graciously allowed me to use a shortened version of his letter as this week's Thoughts from the Frontline. So without any further ado, let's jump right to Gary's look at where we are and where we're going.

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Economics

Friday, December 27, 2013

What's Fueling the Post Christmas Sales? / Economics / Shopping

By: Jonathan_Davis

I was on BBC Radio London yesterday talking about the Sales. The idea was that we’re all being duped into buying stuff we don’t need. Well Duh!!! Isn’t that the basis of our economy for the last 25 years?

However, I think this year is a watershed.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

How Government Austerity Cutbacks Ended Sweden’s Great Depression / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: MISES

Per L. Bylund writes: During the recent financial crisis, Sweden has emerged as one of very few financially sound economies. The country’s strong position, setting it apart from most Western nations, makes it an interesting example of what could — or should — have been done. Indeed, Paul Krugman, the former economist and Nobel Prize laureate, has repeatedly pointed approvingly at how the Swedes handled their depression in the early 1990s as the reason for their recent success. Specifically, he notes the nationalization of some banks at the time of the crisis. While he misses the point by focusing exclusively on a narrow selection of short-term measures rather than longer-term changes, as is the hallmark of a Keynesian, Krugman is right that Sweden has done some things right.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

U.S. Economy - The ‘Real’ Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Data / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Earlier today I posted an update on the December Advance Report on November Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let’s now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer an alternate historical context in which to evaluate the standard reports on the nominal monthly data.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Economic Illiterate Proposal: Inflation Creates Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Those looking economically illiterate proposals can have a field day reading Ezra Klein's "Wonkblog" on the Washington Post.

In Full Employment Gives People Jobs Klein states (citing two others) "The Federal Reserve Bank's focus on keeping inflation below 2 percent effectively sacrifices the other half of its dual mandate: full employment."

It's difficult to know where to start debating such economic lunacy, but let's briefly discuss the notion of a "dual mandate".

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Economics

Saturday, December 21, 2013

After the QE Taper: The Fed’s Non-Plan Is Unchanged / Economics / Inflation

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: As an economist, it is getting more difficult to understand the logic underlying current monetary policy in the U.S. There are two main channels by which economists think monetary policy can influence growth and employment. The first is to lower interest rates to spur investment and consumption spending. The second is to induce inflation so real wages drop, spurring output and employment.

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Economics

Friday, December 20, 2013

Fiat Money Quantity and it's Increasingly Likely Hyperinflation / Economics / Money Supply

By: Alasdair_Macleod

By November, the most recent month for which statistics are available, the US Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ) had grown to $12.351 trillion. This is $4.96 trillion more than it would be if it had grown in line with the established average monthly growth rate from 1960 to the month before the Lehman Crisis. By this measure monetary inflation since August 2009 is now 67% above trend. This is illustrated in Chart 1 below.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Portugal Europe’s Economic Comeback Kid? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Investment_U

Marc Lichtenfeld writes: I had just returned to my hotel room in Innsbruck, Austria, when my wife called. Before I could tell her about the beautiful scenery and amazing experiences I was having on The Oxford Club’s European Opportunity Expedition, she stopped me.

I needed to hop a flight to Portugal immediately, she said. My father – who also happened to be in Europe, though not part of our tour – was having emergency (though, fortunately, routine) surgery in Lisbon.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

If Money Printing Failed in Japan, Why Would It Work in the U.S.? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Profit_Confidential

What the Federal Reserve is doing in the U.S.—its effort to get the economy going via its money printing program—has already been tried by the second-largest economy in the world: Japan.

Unfortunately, the easy monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Japan didn’t spur the Japanese economy. So why would it work for the U.S. economy?

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The Mirage Called a “U.S. Economic Recovery” / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: “Just give up being so negative; there’s economic growth in the U.S. economy.”

These were the exact words of my good old friend, Mr. Speculator. Over the weekend, when I received a call from him, he added, “You see the average American is better off than before. There are jobs; and no matter where you look, you won’t find much negativity. Look at the stock markets; they probably will show a 30% increase for 2013.”

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Inflation in the United States - Keeping it Real! / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“One only needs to reflect on the dramatic decline in the value of the dollar that has taken place since the Fed was established in 1913. The goods and services you could buy for $1.00 in 1913 now cost nearly $21.00. Another way to look at this is from the perspective of the purchasing power of the dollar itself. It has fallen to less than $0.05 of its 1913 value. We might say that the government and its banking cartel have together stolen $0.95 of every dollar as they have pursued a relentlessly inflationary policy.” - Ron Paul – End the Fed

The BLS reported the CPI this morning. They tell me that inflation is well contained and has only risen by 1.2% in the past twelve months. Our beloved Federal Reserve chairman is worried inflation is too low. It is fascinating that the only people worried about inflation being too low are Ivy League educated economists and bankers whose wealth depends upon the middle class sinking further into poverty.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Economic Lessons from Nazi Germany - Starvation and Military Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Julian Adorney writes: Many Americans, from the Glenview State Bank of Chicago to author Ellen Brown assume that the Nazi economic regime was successful, but closer examination tells a tale of rationing, shortages, and starvation. Learning why their economy failed can teach us how to avoid the same fate.

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Economics

Thursday, December 12, 2013

U.S. Sub-Par Economic Recovery With a Propensity Towards a Downturn / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It is a regular ritual for major US businesses: the end-of-the-quarter conference call in which the CEO dissects what just happened and gives us some insight on what to expect for the future of the company. My good friend Rich Yamarone, the chief economist at Bloomberg, is the creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from the comments CEOs and CFOs make on their quarterly earnings conference calls. He not only sits and listens to them present their views, he also picks up the phone and talks to them. He is very clued in on what's happening in the real world of business.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Why Last Month’s Employment Numbers Should Worry Investors / Economics / Employment

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Finally some good news in the U.S. jobs market?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that, in November, 203,000 jobs were added to the U.S. jobs market. As a result, the unemployment rate went down to 7.0% from 7.3% in October. In addition to this, the BLS also revised the job numbers from October and September, saying 20,000 more jobs were created than previously reported. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 6, 2013.)

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Economics

Sunday, December 08, 2013

Enormous Discrepancy Between U.S. Jobs and Employment / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Now that employment distortions related to the government shutdown in October are behind us, let's take a detailed look at the recent and growing discrepancy between jobs as reported on the establishment survey and employment as reported on the household survey.

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Economics

Saturday, December 07, 2013

Will The Real U.S. Economy Please Stand Up? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Are economic reports finally indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery - or not?

Markets need to know. Investors need to know. Most importantly, the Fed needs to know.

The prognosis changes from month to month, even week to week, and this week even day to day, as expectations for Fed action move from taper on, to taper off, to taper on and back again.

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Economics

Friday, December 06, 2013

QE Euthanasia of the Economy? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

Today's Outside the Box comes to us from my good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London. Niels gives us an excellent summary of how QE has affected the global economy (and how it hasn't). I have found myself paraphrasing Niels all week.

I also want to call to your attention an interview first posted at ZeroHedge between my friends Chris Whalen and David Kotok. This is an inside-baseball view of a not-so-minor issue involving central banks and ZIRP. The FDIC charges 7-10 basis points on deposits for the national deposit insurance scheme. At close to the zero bound, the fee means that banks can lose money on deposits. As Chris and David point out, this is just another distortion being fed into the system. David was the first to introduce me to this concept (and rather passionately). I have not written about it because it gets complicated quickly, but it highlights a very serious problem and one that is not dissimilar to the deflationary aspects of the Basel III requirements, working at odds with what central bankers are trying to do. This goes with my long-held contention that the models the Fed and all central banks are working with are simply inadequate to describe the complexity of the global economy, and we have no true idea what we are doing, just a guess and a hope.

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Economics

Friday, December 06, 2013

U.S. Fed QE Money Printing Volume to Triple Not Taper / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The US Federal Reserve bond monetization support for government finance support, financial markets, banker welfare, economic props, redemption coverage, and liquidity fire hose functions will continue to expand and definitely not diminish. Only the brain-dead, the system wonks, and the deeply deluded believe the QE volume will taper down. They are paid to think that way in the public forum, their minds compromised, their hearts darkened, their paychecks dependent. As preface in order to properly comprehend the national situation, keep in mind that the USEconomy is stuck in a nightmarish quagmire, with growth steadily in decline at between minus 3% and minus 5% annually, when reality is required. The propaganda must be pushed off the road, the price inflation not labeled as growth, and the system perceived for what it is. The USEconomy is in grotesque deterioration with absent critical mass of industry, widespread debt defaults, retail liquidations, idle plant and equipment (including malls), and systemic capital destruction from the monetary hyper inflation and the imminent specter of ObamaCare tax. In queer fashion, the modern day US factories have become shopping malls. They suffer from at least a 25% vacancy rate nationally.

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Economics

Friday, December 06, 2013

My Big Fat Chinese Plenum, Taking China's Economy to the Next Level / Economics / China Economy

By: HRA_Advisory

No, it's not a glandular condition. China's leaders concluded the third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress a couple of weeks ago. Party Congresses last for five years and Plenums (full meetings) are annual except for the first year of each Congress where there might be two or three full meetings.

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