Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 29, 2018
UK Government and Bank of England BrExit Economic Armageddon Propaganda / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hours after the UK Government published it's economic consequences of a NO DEAL BrExit, forecasting a 9% loss of GDP after 15 years. The head at the heart of Britains banking establishment, the Bank of England set forth it's NO DEAL Economic Armageddon scenario, literally warning of economic collapse on a scale twice that of the 2008 Financial Crisis. One of a near immediate NO DEAL currency collapse, GDP collapse of 9%, house prices crash of 30% and inflation soaring to over 6.5%. The people of Britain being subjected to Operation FEAR on an even greater scale than that which the Bank of England was peddling prior to the June 2016 EU Referendum, then warning of a BrExit recession if the people of Britain voted for freedom, NONE of which materialised as the UK economy continued to grow on a similar trend trajectory it was on as before the EU Referendum BrExit result.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From a high of $77 barely 6 weeks ago the crude oil price has been on a relentless downwards slide, slicing through key support levels all the way to a new low for the year of just $50! A move that NO ONE saw coming! With the key triggering price point coming late October when the oil price failed to hold support at $64.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Gold Joins the Decline – the Earth is Shaking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined in a quite visible way yesterday, which is in tune with our previous expectations. In the previous days it was only silver and miners that declined in a meaningful manner, but yesterday gold joined them, making this a sector-wide decline. Is this the groundbreaking decline that we have been writing about for so long? Time will tell, but the earth is already shaking.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: F_F_Wiley
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.
We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Graham_Summers
Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.
Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…
1) The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.
2) The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).
3) The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.
4) Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
GE’s Stock Price Crash Holds an Important Lesson About Investing / Companies / US Auto's
By: Jared_Dillian
The main problem with most investors is that they have a very small imagination.GE is a single-digit midget. Who could have predicted that?
I have been speculating about the probability that GE could go bankrupt.
Bankrupt? A stock that was in the Dow for 100 years?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
5 Rules for Successful Trading / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Dollar Trend Imposes: EURUSD to Fall to 1.11 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: FXCOT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 100 points after a White House official left open the possibility of a trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China later this week. Shares of companies that pay hefty dividends and tend to generate stable profits in challenging economic conditions, such as consumer staples like Walgreens Boots Alliance and health-care companies like Johnson & Johnson , rose throughout the session, helping the blue-chip index overcome a roughly 224-point pullback earlier in the day.
Stocks are off to a good start to the post Thanksgiving trading week. And they have at least three things working in their favor. One is the proximity to their late October low. The other is a short-term oversold condition. The third is seasonal support.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Are We Approaching A "Once-In-A-Century" Type Stock Market Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others -- along with the comments -- to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:
"For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70's, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Gold, Original Money, Fiat Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Kelsey_Williams
The first gold coins appeared around 560 B.C. Over time it became a practice to store larger amounts of gold in warehouses. Paper receipts were issued certifying that the gold was on deposit. These receipts were negotiable instruments of trade and commerce which could be signed over to others. They were not actual currency but are a presumed forerunner to our modern checking system.
Gold is original money. It was money before paper receipts were issued. The paper receipts were not money. They were substitutes for real money. Today, all paper currencies are substitutes for real money.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we approach the final month of this year, it’s worth reflecting on our thoughts and actions over the past year. Reflection is how you become a better investor and trader.
I posted the following chart in December 2017. Interesting how this year’s max drawdown is pretty much inline with the average drawdown of -12%
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Looking ahead: Why the Smart Money is Investing in Green Energy / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Andrew_Cioffi
Tech industry headlines might have been focused on Apple’s recent milestone, whereby they officially became the first company in history to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization, but the renewable energy sector had its own cause for celebration, also starting with the letter ‘t’.
The news from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the world’s total capacity for energy production through wind and solar has surpassed 1 terawatt, and we might not have to wait too long before we can get to the next terawatt, if the current pace of progress, uptake, and innovation keeps up into the future. As a matter of fact, the BNEF makes the surprisingly upbeat prediction that by the year 2023, we might see this achieved at only 46% of what the first terawatt cost.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
We Are Well Inside the Matrix / Politics / Propaganda
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Our politicians and media are not going to allow us to see Russia, and any incidents the country can be linked to, in any other way than black and white, in which we are the good party and they are the black, evil and guilty ones. So we’ll have to do that ourselves.
More than enough has been said about why NATO should have been dismantled when the reason for its existence, the Soviet Union, was dissolved, but nobody listened and NATO has kept expanding eastward and demanding more money, more members, more weapons.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Removing the Cloak from Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The new Alchemist is out. What can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!
Banque de France and Gold
The latest edition of LBMA’s Alchemist focuses on the role of central banks in the gold market. Sylvie Goulard, Deputy Governor of Banque de France, wrote the first article, entitled Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future. . According to her, the central bank of France has always been a major player in the gold market. Indeed, in the 19th century, Paris was a major gold centre, while Napoleon (20 franc gold coin) was one of the iconic coins of the 19th and 20th century. And, since its creation in 1800, the Banque de France has held one of the largest gold and silver reserves in the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Cashback Mortgage Deals Soar for both Residential and BTL Borrowers / Personal_Finance / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
With a limited number of people interested in applying for a new mortgage of any type at the moment, product numbers being at all-time highs and competition still pushing interest rates down, mortgage providers seem to be turning to cashback incentives as a way to stand out from the crowd.
The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk highlights that cashback incentives as a key product option are becoming more widespread within both the residential and buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance.
Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Silver Trading and the Hands of a Broken Clock / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on lessons learned and profits to be gained in silver trades. "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." ― Stephen Hunt, The Court of the Air
There are times when every investor has to look long and deep into a mirror and determine whether a well-thought-out strategy is actionable or whether it is simply an ad hoc "hunch," barely worth chasing. With regard to silver, this is just one of those times.
In 2003-2004, I was stopped out four times under $5 per ounce trying to establish a 10-lot futures position in silver (50,000 ounces), which, at the time, demanded US$18,000 in maintenance margin. When I finally threw in the towel, my $18 grand worth of "dead presidents" was worth slightly less than $6,000.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Will DOJ Finally Hold Bullion Banks Accountable for Gold and Silver Market Rigging / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Clint Siegner : It is hard to cheer for the Department of Justice these days, but federal prosecutions have begun to offer hope for precious metals investors hurt by rigged markets and crooked traders.
The DOJ looks poised to do what regulators at the CFTC have not. They will use evidence of blatant cheating and fraud to hold a few bankers accountable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
What's Inside SMIGGLE Christmas Advent Calender 2018 / Personal_Finance / Reviews
By: Anika_Walayat
Here's our third and final installment of what's inside an SMIGGLE christmas advent calendar 2018, so that you know if its worth buying with its £25 price tag (discounted to £22.50 in Sheffield). As we open up TWO SMIGGLE Calendars to see what goodies it contains. Two calendars because we wanted to check to see if the items vary from calender to calendar.
Read full article... Read full article...