Monday, December 03, 2018
The Bottled Water Bamboozle / Commodities / Water Sector
By: Richard_Mills
Bottled water is now the most consumed drink sold in a plastic bottle in the United States. The fact that North Americans don’t think twice about paying up to $5 for a bottle of H2O has allowed Nestle Waters - the largest bottled water company in the world - to sell $7.4 billion worth in 2016, and that was just for water, one of dozens of products from chocolate to baby food marketed by the Swiss food and beverage conglomerate.
Perhaps if Canadians and Americans knew what drilling for water, pumping it to the surface, and piping it to a bottling plant was doing to the world’s groundwater supplies, not to mention the world’s oceans where a lot of the plastic ends up, they would switch to the tap. Incidentally, tap water costs Canadians on the order of tenths of a cent per liter.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
Crude Oil After November’s Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
November was the worst month for oil bulls since July 2016. Over the past few weeks, the price of black gold has dived deeply, sometimes dropping even under the barrier of $50. What impact did this price action have on the long-, medium- and short-term picture of the commodity?
Let's start today’s alert with the long-term chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, December 03, 2018
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The continued efforts of our research team to identify and quantify the possibility that the capital shift which has taken place over the past 18+ months may be shifting to other assets is in the interest of all global investors. Is there a new, more opportunistic investment that will take away from the capital that has been rushing into the US equity markets over the past 2+ years or is the capital shift towards the US equity markets still intact? These are the questions before us and these are the questions that will determine if the US equity markets continue to rally or continue to top out.
Monday, December 03, 2018
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and South Korea’s Kospi stock indexes gained 2.2%, 2% and 1.6%, respectively. The Chinese yuan rose 0.36% to about 6.925 per U.S. dollar. Ahead of the U.S. open, S&P 500 futures also climbed 1.5%. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the deal on Saturday in Buenos Aires. It offers Beijing a reprieve from a planned increase in tariffs, scheduled for Jan. 1, on $200 billion in Chinese goods exports to the U.S. Tariffs were scheduled to rise to 25% from 10%.
We have been long equity markets in Novemeber from 2640 here: Be long S&P Since our trade, the equity markets have rallied over +4% in Novemeber.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession / Economics / Recession 2019
By: James_Quinn
“This country, and with it most of the Western world, is presently going through a period of inflation and credit expansion. As the quantity of money in circulation and deposits subject to check increases, there prevails a general tendency for the prices of commodities and services to rise. Business is booming. Yet such a boom, artificially engineered by monetary and credit expansion, cannot last forever. It must come to an end sooner or later. For paper money and bank deposits are not a proper substitute for non-existing capital goods. Economic theory has demonstrated in an irrefutable way that a prosperity created by an expansionist monetary and credit policy is illusory and must end in a slump, an economic crisis. It has happened again and again in the past, and it will happen in the future, too.” – Ludwig von Mises – 1952
Monday, December 03, 2018
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 03, 2018
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market rallied last week and is now sitting just under its 200 day moving average.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
DXY: “The Reports Of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated” / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those literary enthusiasts amongst us, you would recognize the title as the line supposedly penned by Mark Twain when it was inquired of him while in London regarding a published obituary written in the United States.
However, more accurately, his response to the reporter’s inquiry was “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” But, I digress.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is sitting right under its 200 day moving average right now. The stock market is demonstrating various late-cycle signs. These late-cycle signs are not immediately long term bearish, but it demonstrates that the long term winds will change in 2019.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.
Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.
This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis: Suggest Supported NZDUSD / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: ElliottWaveForecast
NZDUSD short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that a decline to 0.6751 low ended primary wave ((2)) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as double three structure where intermediate wave (W) ended at 0.6780 low in lesser degree zigzag structure. Up from there, a 3 wave bounce to 0.6852 high ended intermediate wave (X). Then finally a decline to 0.6751 low ended intermediate wave (Y) in lesser degree double three structure & finally completed primary wave ((2)).
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The SPX Index is trading within a Blue Box in our system, these boxes are areas in which the Market needs to define whether it will become an Impulsive sequence which runs in 5-9-13 waves or corrective sequence in which runs in 3-7-11 waves. Many traders who follow The Elliott wave Theory understand the idea of 5 waves followed by 3 waves back as shown in the following chart.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
Will AUDUSD Rally Higher? / Currencies / Austrailia
By: ElliottWaveForecast
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
AUDUSD BUY/LONG Trade Setup: October 26/2018 AUDUSD found a bottom and bounced higher. The bounce higher has formed a bullish Elliott Wave Impulse Pattern. The current wave count higher can now be seen as a five wave move with red wave 1 terminating at the high of November 16/2018. The pair corrected lower and terminated wave red 2 at the November 27/2018 low which was then followed by a five wave move higher to terminate wave ((i)) at the November 29/2018 high. If looking to trade AUDUSD, traders will need to watch and wait for a pullback lower towards the blue BUY ZONE and watch for the possible termination of wave ((ii)) in that preferred area. Watch for buying signals and a reversal in the blue box BUY ZONE and expect a rally higher for the strong red wave 3.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity / Currencies / BlockChain
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
The key to success in cryptos is to approach this wild market in a way that insulates you from the hype, frenzy and rumors -- and helps you act when others flounder.
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Saturday, December 01, 2018
Junior Gold Stocks Q3’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent recent months mostly languishing near major multi-year lows. That spawned a sentiment wasteland riddled by bearishness and bereft of bids. But these companies’ battered stock prices aren’t fundamentally righteous, as proven yet again by their latest earnings season. Faring far better in a challenging third quarter than stock prices imply, they need to mean revert way higher.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Saturday, December 01, 2018
Little-Known BDC Stocks Thrive Amid Rising Rates and Earn Investors +7% Yields / Companies / Investing 2018
By: John_Mauldin
BY ROBERT ROSS :
Volatility is back.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—also known as the Fear Index—has recently hit its highest level in six months. The S&P 500 has lost 10% in 30 days.
The reason is rising interest rates.
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Saturday, December 01, 2018
Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Science tells us energy can neither be created nor destroyed within a closed system. The form may change, but the amount will only stay the same. If this only held true for debt.Within the closed system called Earth, we create debt much better than we eliminate it.
Well, when we have too much, we eventually get rid of it. But we do so in painful and unpleasant ways—via some kind of debt crisis.
This has happened over and over again throughout history. And there’s real possibility that we will soon face another major debt crisis...
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Saturday, December 01, 2018
Bank of England Warns UK House Prices 30% BrExit Crash! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week saw the harbingers of the NO DEAL Brexit economic apocalypse set forth their forecasts of what awaited Britain following a No Deal exit from the European Union on the 29th of March. At the top of the doom merchants was the Canadian Governor of the Bank of England warning of a string of catastrophes for Britain where at the top of the doom list was a 30% CRASH in UK house prices. The following graph illustrates what the Bank of England's 30% crash in house prices would look like if it were to materialise post Brexit.
Friday, November 30, 2018
Debt, Death, and the US Empire / Politics / US Military
By: Antonius_Aquinas
In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt. Speaking before the Alexander Hamilton Society, Bolton warned that current US debt levels and public obligations posed an “economic threat” to the nation’s security:
It is a fact that when your national debt gets to the level ours is, that it constitutes an economic threat to the society. And that kind of threat ultimately has a national security consequence for it.*
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Friday, November 30, 2018
The World-Class Lessons of China’s Shanghai Free-Trade Zone / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Amid the fifth anniversary of the Shanghai Free-Trade Zone, new economic zones are proliferating in China’s critical productivity centers. Despite trade wars, China is opening but in its own terms.
The Shanghai Free-Trade Zone (FTZ) was launched in September 2013, some five years ago. It was the first FTZ in mainland China and has progressively been expanding its territorial coverage. Yet, territorial coverage is only a part of its strategic significance.