Thursday, November 29, 2018
How the Bitcoin Bubble Burst Could Lead to a New Golden Era / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MoneyMetals
One of the greatest asset bubbles of all time appears to have just burst.
It’s not the stock market. Despite recent downside volatility amidst bubble-like valuations, so far stocks have merely entered a correction.
Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have entered into a full-blown meltdown. Bitcoin will go down in history for its extraordinary rise from zero to a high of $19,783 on December 17, 2017. Its subsequent fall may be one for the history books as well.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Wednesday following breaking out above their week-long consolidation. The S&P 500 accelerated higher after breaking above 2,700 mark. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just another advance within a consolidation following the October sell-off?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 2.3-3.0% on Wednesday, as investors sentiment much improved following breaking out above the recent trading range. The S&P 500 index got back above the level of 2,700. It currently trades 6.7% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.0% on Wednesday.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,750, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,780-2,800, among others. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,680-2,700, marked by the recent resistance level.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Should Gold Bulls Open the Champagne? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell spoke yesterday. The gold market considered his remarks as dovish. And the market is always right, isn’t it?
Just Below Neutral
On Wednesday, Powell delivered a speech “The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability” at The Economic Club of New York. The majority of analysts judged the speech as dovish. Why? The key reason was Powell’s view that interest rates were close to neutral:
Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Well that was quick. Less than 2 months ago Fed chairman Powell said that interest rates were “far below neutral” (implying that rates needed to be hiked much more). After the stock market has fallen 10%, Powell now thinks that “interest rates are close to being neutral” (implying that fewer rate hikes are needed).
The stock market rallied on this news.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Love. Fear. Inflation. A Precious Metals' Trifecta / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: MoneyMetals
By David Smith: Going forward, there are – and will continue to be – three primary drivers of global physical gold (and silver) demand.
During certain times in the past only one or two of these elements provided most of the momentum.
However, as we move into 2019, and for possibly the next 5-10 years, all three will be in play. They will operate synergistically to consistently motivate increased precious metals' buying around the globe. This will happen, even as meeting that demand with sufficient new supply becomes problematic.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
BEA Leaves US 3rd Quarter 2018 GDP Unchanged at 3.50% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2018, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.50% annual rate, up +0.01% from their previous estimate but still down -0.66% from the prior quarter. The +0.01% improvement in the headline number masks a troublesome shift in the composition of that growth from consumer spending to even more inventory growth. The headline contribution from consumer spending on goods and services weakened by -0.24% and the growth is now lower than the prior quarter. Offsetting that was an upward revision to inventories (+0.20%), which are now reported to be growing at a +2.27% annualized rate. As a consequence, the BEA's "bottom line" measurement of the economy (the "real final sales of domestic product") was revised downward by -0.19%, now dropping by over four percent (-4.10%) from the prior quarter.
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
GBP/USD – Double Bottom or Further Declines? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous week, GBP/USD wavered around the lower border of the declining trend channel. Yesterday, currency bears pushed the pair below it, testing the mid-November low. Will we see a post-double-bottom rally in the following days?
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
UK Government and Bank of England BrExit Economic Armageddon Propaganda / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hours after the UK Government published it's economic consequences of a NO DEAL BrExit, forecasting a 9% loss of GDP after 15 years. The head at the heart of Britains banking establishment, the Bank of England set forth it's NO DEAL Economic Armageddon scenario, literally warning of economic collapse on a scale twice that of the 2008 Financial Crisis. One of a near immediate NO DEAL currency collapse, GDP collapse of 9%, house prices crash of 30% and inflation soaring to over 6.5%. The people of Britain being subjected to Operation FEAR on an even greater scale than that which the Bank of England was peddling prior to the June 2016 EU Referendum, then warning of a BrExit recession if the people of Britain voted for freedom, NONE of which materialised as the UK economy continued to grow on a similar trend trajectory it was on as before the EU Referendum BrExit result.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Why the Crude Oil Price Collapsed to $50 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From a high of $77 barely 6 weeks ago the crude oil price has been on a relentless downwards slide, slicing through key support levels all the way to a new low for the year of just $50! A move that NO ONE saw coming! With the key triggering price point coming late October when the oil price failed to hold support at $64.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Gold Joins the Decline – the Earth is Shaking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined in a quite visible way yesterday, which is in tune with our previous expectations. In the previous days it was only silver and miners that declined in a meaningful manner, but yesterday gold joined them, making this a sector-wide decline. Is this the groundbreaking decline that we have been writing about for so long? Time will tell, but the earth is already shaking.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: F_F_Wiley
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.
We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Graham_Summers
Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.
Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…
1) The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.
2) The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).
3) The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.
4) Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
GE’s Stock Price Crash Holds an Important Lesson About Investing / Companies / US Auto's
By: Jared_Dillian
The main problem with most investors is that they have a very small imagination.GE is a single-digit midget. Who could have predicted that?
I have been speculating about the probability that GE could go bankrupt.
Bankrupt? A stock that was in the Dow for 100 years?
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
5 Rules for Successful Trading / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Dollar Trend Imposes: EURUSD to Fall to 1.11 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: FXCOT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 100 points after a White House official left open the possibility of a trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China later this week. Shares of companies that pay hefty dividends and tend to generate stable profits in challenging economic conditions, such as consumer staples like Walgreens Boots Alliance and health-care companies like Johnson & Johnson , rose throughout the session, helping the blue-chip index overcome a roughly 224-point pullback earlier in the day.
Stocks are off to a good start to the post Thanksgiving trading week. And they have at least three things working in their favor. One is the proximity to their late October low. The other is a short-term oversold condition. The third is seasonal support.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Are We Approaching A "Once-In-A-Century" Type Stock Market Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others -- along with the comments -- to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:
"For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70's, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Gold, Original Money, Fiat Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Kelsey_Williams
The first gold coins appeared around 560 B.C. Over time it became a practice to store larger amounts of gold in warehouses. Paper receipts were issued certifying that the gold was on deposit. These receipts were negotiable instruments of trade and commerce which could be signed over to others. They were not actual currency but are a presumed forerunner to our modern checking system.
Gold is original money. It was money before paper receipts were issued. The paper receipts were not money. They were substitutes for real money. Today, all paper currencies are substitutes for real money.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As we approach the final month of this year, it’s worth reflecting on our thoughts and actions over the past year. Reflection is how you become a better investor and trader.
I posted the following chart in December 2017. Interesting how this year’s max drawdown is pretty much inline with the average drawdown of -12%
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Looking ahead: Why the Smart Money is Investing in Green Energy / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Andrew_Cioffi
Tech industry headlines might have been focused on Apple’s recent milestone, whereby they officially became the first company in history to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization, but the renewable energy sector had its own cause for celebration, also starting with the letter ‘t’.
The news from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the world’s total capacity for energy production through wind and solar has surpassed 1 terawatt, and we might not have to wait too long before we can get to the next terawatt, if the current pace of progress, uptake, and innovation keeps up into the future. As a matter of fact, the BNEF makes the surprisingly upbeat prediction that by the year 2023, we might see this achieved at only 46% of what the first terawatt cost.