Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019
Currencies / Bitcoin Feb 04, 2019 - 10:50 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
2018 was the year the bitcoin crypto bubble burst that witnessed the bitcoin price first collapse to a floor of $6000, from which each attempted bounce failed to generate any follow through, and the longer the failure for a breakout higher continued then the greater the probability that the price would eventually break lower, below the $6000 floor. Which is what transpired during November that saw Bitcoin plunge to a new low of $3,100 by Mid December, a far cry from the fantasy of first revisiting $20k and then $50k that a naive 'manipulated' Bitcoin community had pinned their hopes and dreams on whilst immersed in an endless feedback loop of perma bull bitcoin pump mania commentary, that was the mainstay of the internet during 2018, whilst the manipulators were dumping their holdings onto the naive players. Just like what the pump and dumpers have been doing with penny stocks for over 100 years!
This analysis was first made availale to Patrons who support my work. https://www.patreon.com/posts/bitcoin-analysis-23665835
So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And it was an even worse experience for holders of Alt coins such as Ethereum that collapsed from $1000 to $100, and that's before over $1 billion of theft of crypto's straight out of the exchange held wallets of retail investors.
But first a recap of my forecast expectations for 2018 which I published when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing lower towards a target of $5,000, a forecast that at the time was met with much denial from the bitcoin community who were focused on fantasising about the crypto soon revisiting $20k.
02 Jan 2018 - Bitcoin Crash Not Over, Crypto Gamblers Prepare for Spike Down to $5,000
As for what bitcoin could do during 2018, well the price may have recovered by some 30% from the recent $10k low but I doubt that the decline is over, so it looks like bitcoin holders are currently in the calm before the next Bitcoin storm, another down leg to well below $10k, probably a spike down to $5k! Following which I would expect Bitcoin to be pretty much dead for the rest of the year, i.e. don't expect a return to $20k anytime soon! So Bitcoin gamblers beware!
And my update of 5th Feb at BTC $8k reaffirmed expectations for downwards price spiral now towards lower to $4k
05 Feb 2018 - Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom?
So what does the chart say for the prospects for Bitcoin, well the declines momentum has fallen slightly which suggests that the rate of decent should gradually become milder.
However, the downwards trend / collapse remains in progress so there has been little deviation against my forecast to date which means Bitcoin remains heading for a spike down to $5,000 this year.
With my look at Bitcoin on 19th March warning against getting sucked into a suckers rally at the time which had seen BTC rally from a low $7,200 to $8,600. Where instead I warned that the Bitcoin price rather than recovering could slice through $5k, then $4k and even $3k and that I would not be surprised if Bitcoin went as low as $2,000!
19 Mar 2018 - Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack?
Bitcoin Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019
So here we stand at then end of December 2018 with the Bitcoin price currently trading at $3,680! Mission accomplished in terms of my forecast for 2018.
The Bitcoin price failed to hold the line at $6000 which acted as support from June through to November after repeated failures to breakout higher sent the Bitcoin price slicing straight through $4000, and barely managing to hold $3000 before bouncing during the latter half of December, Though without any significant strength behind the current bounce.
The long-term Bitcoin illustrates just how catastrophic was Novembers break below $6000, that not only sowed the seeds for a further 50% CRASH in the price to $3000 but potentially sows the seeds of far worse to come i.e. the chart to me implies that the Bitcoin price could even trade below $1000!
Forecasting 2019
The bounce off of $3000 has been pretty weak, coming nowhere near retracing the 50% CRASH from $6000 which to me heavy overhead selling pressure, itching to get out of their bitcoin holdings. Which sows the seeds for a break below $3000, regardless of the perma recovery mantra that you will tend to be reading elsewhere online, instead to likely conclude in another 50% in CRASH in Price.
The outlook for Bitcoin going into 2019 is for chopping trading during the first half of the year between a range of $3000 and $5000, with heavy resistance between $6k and $6.5k that Bitcoin is unlikely to trade into. However this trading range is a primed for a 50% CRASH on the current price of $3815. Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a first half of 2019 for the Bitcoin trading range to resolve in a 50% CRASH to below $2000, targeting a crash to at least $1900 and likely much lower which I will revisit the prospects of during 2019.
The bottom line is that the Bitcoin HODL's are going to feel much more pain during 2019 with NO Signs visible of any price recovery for at least the first half of 2019. Regardless of what the Bitcoin manipulators are trying to engineer for the retail investing community to get sucked into.
Peering into the Mysts of Time
Could the Bitcoin price collapse to under $100, $10, even $1? That's going to sound like an impossible nightmare scenario for all the Bitcoiners out there, but remember this, at it's heart Bitcoin is just a cyber technology, and ALL technologies eventually become obsolete, especially given the fact that there are already over 1500 alt coins out there, with many more innovations to come during 2019. And then we have the role of government regulation, control and taxation of crypto currencies.
So take this as a warning that the 2008 vintage Bitcoin could be on a downwards death spiral towards ZERO!
2019 Analysis
Going into 2019 my primary focus remains analysis of the housing markets towards concluding in a high probability multi-year trend forecast for UK and US house prices, and I will likely touch on other housing markets as well, the following illustrates the depth of work involved -
This this analysis will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Your analyst,
Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
