Thursday, November 24, 2022
Why INTEREST RATE HIKES Are INFLATIONARY! / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Unfortunately I will have to leave this mostly for next time. But basically INTEREST RATE HIKES to bring INFLATION DOWN! Is NOT going to work because INTEREST RATES DO NOT CONTROL the RATE of INFLATION. So that which academics have built their whole careers on is BS! All I hear is Volcker raised rates that brought inflation down and so rinse and repeat, was it Interest rates that killed the Inflation of the 1970's? Are you sure your not lapping up the propaganda which is ECONOMICs perpetuated by the propaganda arms of Governments called central banks who's primary remit is to put up a smoke screen of misinformation so as to allow governments, to get away with printing money!
As I have voiced for well over a decade, Inflation is a function of governments PRINTING MONEY, of which QE is part of the equation i.e print money to monetize government debt, which despite all of the noise continues to this very day! Governments printing money on an epic scale for which the smoking gun is the Governments deficit spending, the US Federal Government is spending $1.4 trillion more than it earns in revenue that is PRINTING MONEY! For the UK it's about £120 billion,
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Are I-Bonds Predicting a drop in Inflation ? / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A patron commented - Interesting take on inflation: the US Treasury I-bonds (which one can invest $10k each year) will pay an annualized interest from November 1, 2022, through April 2023 of 6.89%, down from the 9.62% rate offered since May 2022. Probably an indicator that the inflation stats that are forthcoming will show we’ve peaked. https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Could Bitcoin’s Movements Indicate the Fall of Junior Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While comparing gold and bitcoin gives some idea of the patterns in the market, can the slide of junior miners be predicted by the same method?
Those of you who have been following my analyses for a while may be expecting me to write that it is based on the stock market's rally and thus only temporary, as miners will follow gold sooner rather than later. That’s their ultimate source of revenue (current or expected). While that’s true, right now there is another huge factor that’s likely contributing to the situation.
It's most likely the unfolding crypto-drama.
Remember when I previously commented on the link between juniors and cryptocurrencies? What I wrote back then was particularly important with regard to the less known (obscure?) ones with a shady background. In fact, some even call them “shitcoins.”
Thursday, November 24, 2022
FTX, The Rise and Fall of a Crypto Ponzi Scheme / Stock-Markets / Scams
By: MoneyMetals
By now, you have heard about the FTX exchange bankruptcy. But you may be justifiably desensitized. Desensitized because the frequency of crypto disasters is at least yearly.
This FTX crypto scandal is a next-level scandal reading like an over-the-top Hollywood film, a bizarre crypto con story ending badly.
FTX frontman Sam Bankman-Fried was in his twenties when he became a billionaire last year.
His daily routine is highly dysfunctional, and his personality is profoundly impaired. This contrasts with most con men who are charming and charismatic.
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Winter Is About To Wake up the Natural Gas Price / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
An unusually warm October has helped natural gas inventories, but gas prices don't seem to believe it. Oil has seen three days of heavy selling volume ending with a hammer candle stick Monday. Birchcliff, Callon, and Earthstone should benefit.
Gold stocks have started a new bull market. The question is, will the gold price confirm it?
The HUI index ran from a low of 180.41 on November 3, 2022, to a high of 224.88 on November 10, 2022, which is a +24.6% move. The gold stocks often lead to a move in gold, and the gold price did move from US$1631 to US$1775 in the same time frame.
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
COVID Is Still KILLING! - UK High Excess Deaths / Politics / Coronavirus 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There is silence in the MSM and that silence concerns the continuing high number of Excess deaths still taking place which is running at about 12% above the 5 year average, and not just in the UK but right across the world, for instance for Australia it is even higher at +17%. It's as though just like what QE did for the economy, it appears that the vaccines have done for the pandemic by kicking the covid deaths can down the road!
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Crude Oil Price Predicis the US Economy and Stocks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.
I built a few new combo chart this weekend, related to oil sector, to see if I could paint a more clearer picture of what is taking place. Since the 2020 crash low the USO, US oil fund, has had a very strong rally with the high being made back in the middle of June around 93 or so. The USO has been forming a new trading range since the June high and is currently testing the top rail of the blue falling wedge and the bottom trendline the 2020 uptrend channel. So the moment of truth has arrived.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
US Senate Report Concludes Lab Leak Origins of SARS-CoV-2 / Politics / Coronavirus 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Want to make sense of the U.S. midterms? Watch this... / ElectionOracle / US Politics
By: EWI
Hi,
Well, it happened again: Here in the U.S., election pollsters have egg on their face. In the midterm elections, a "red wave" -- Republicans winning by a landslide -- didn't come ashore.
What we got instead was a strong show for the status quo: a Senate hold for Democrats and a narrow House majority for Republicans.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
'No Mas' to Hawkish Fed Says Precious Metals Expert / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
In light of the controversy with FTX Corp., expert Michael Ballanger shares his opinion on current news coverage and the state of the gold market and U.S. dollar to tell you his view on the precious metals and whether he believes we are headed toward a bear market rally.
A tad over forty-two years ago, an absolute freak of a boxer named Roberto Duran lost a rematch with another fine battler named Sugar Ray Leonard when he uttered the two words “No más” and ended the bout.
As disappointed as I was to watch one of my favorite boxers (“scrapper” would be a better term) throw in the towel, I was actually appalled at the physical condition of the “Manos de Piedra” (Hands of Stone) Duran, who appeared to have ended his partying off the first bout about three days earlier.
However, the words ending the match were absolutely appropriate, and they are reminiscent of my current stance toward all this controversy and outrage surrounding FTX Corp., which is dominating the digital airwaves while swiftly becoming a major vote-getting platform for politicians. Surprise, surprise .
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.
Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.
Tuesday, November 22, 2022
GOLD AND THE NORMALCY BIAS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing?
NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITION
normalcy bias (noun)
“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe.” …Wictionary
Here is a better, more complete definition from a different source…
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
FTX Collapse Reconfirms Bitcoin Is NOT “Digital Gold” / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: MoneyMetals
John Ray III oversaw the bankruptcy liquidation of Enron when the giant energy trading firm collapsed in an inferno of fraud and malfeasance in 2001.
Last week, Ray was appointed to handle the unwinding of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. He had the following to say, and it's a lot given his experience:
"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."
Monday, November 21, 2022
CPLIE - The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
People need to learn to forget about graphs such as this (Annual percentage change in CPLIE) -
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Monday, November 21, 2022
Gold Price Formed a Bearish Star, and It’s Not Even Christmas Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Last week was full of events, but the most important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed a reversal “shooting star” candlestick.
The implications are just as you think they are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellow metal is now about to slide again.
Let’s take a closer look.
Monday, November 21, 2022
Economic Challenges face the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Donald_W_Dony
One of the biggest challenges that face the continuation of the 14-year economic expansion is inflation. Years of near-zero interest rates, an accommodating Fed, and low unemployment have resulted in the highest inflation rate in 40 years.
To counteract this rapid rise in inflation, the FOMC started increasing the Fed Funds Rate in May. First with small increments and then with four jumbo increases of 75 bps.
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Sunday, November 20, 2022
Why Most Amazon Black Friday Sales are FAKE! Stock Price Set to Crash to NEW BEAR Market LOW / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's Back Friday, no wait it's Black Friday WEEK, In fact longer than a week as Amazon spreads Black Friday from 18th November all the way to 28th of Number, A 10 DAY SALE! But is it real or is it fake find out in my latest video as I take a look at this creaking tech giant, on the tricks it tends to pull to try and get people to hit the buy button on items that can cost more DURING the sale then barely a few weeks ago!
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Sunday, November 20, 2022
Stock Market Investors Aren’t Buying the Fed’s Hawkish Posturing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As warning signs for the economy mount, investors are cheering for more bad news. That's because they expect economic weakness will force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and eventually re-embrace loose monetary policy.One reliable indicator over the years of an upcoming recession is an inverted yield curve. An inversion occurs when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates.
Typically, a 3-month Treasury bill or 2-year note will yield less than a 10-year note or 30-year bond. Shorter-duration debt instruments entail less risk and therefore deliver less reward under normal circumstances. But over the past four months, short-term IOUs have begun to yield more than longer-term paper.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
WHY PEAK INFLATION IS a RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Inflation Mega-trend
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
As for the United States, shadow stats does a good job of calculating the real rate of inflation which ia based on the US governments own 1980 formulae that resolves to 13.5% vs 8.2%.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector
The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.
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