Wednesday, February 08, 2023
S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of my stock market trend forecast the Dow by now would be trading at approx 32,500 vs actual last close of 33,203 for a +0.9% deviation, imagine if someone told you where the Dow will be in 3 months time and by that time the Dow is within 1% of the forecast price, so the forecast is proving to be an accurate road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Clown Cramer META is FINISHED at $100 on CNBC Cartoon Network at Mother of Tech Stocks Buying Opps! / Stock-Markets / Mainstream Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Wonder why you did not buy META when the stock was trading down to UNDER $100! It is because it is not easy to buy stocks when they are dirt cheap unless one has a plan, already has a list of target stocks to buy and BUY THEM WHEN CHEAP! BUY THEM WHEN BLOOD IS POURING OUT OF ONES EYES at the draw downs they are generating! BUY THEM when MSM are SAYIING they are now DEAD stocks! As clown Cramer was saying during October, DO NOT BUY TECH STOCKS this clown was spouting as I and hopefully many patrons were catching the many falling knives during Octobers bloodbath, Clown Cramer on the CNBC Cartoon network was stating that the tech stocks were finished, META was finished at $100 per share! When it WAS the mother of all buying opps! CNBC IS the CARTOON NETWORK!
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Today’s Best Commodity Market Trading Setups / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free commodity-trading webinar!
Join Elliott Wave International's Chief Commodity Analyst, Jim Martens, this Thursday, Feb. 9 at 1 p.m. Eastern time for a special, live webinar: Today's Best Commodity Setups.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Crypto's, with Most Potential Upside / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly, one does not invest in coruptos, one gambles on coruptos that one day a greater fool will come along to pay more than what one paid because as far as I can tell crypto's do not have any intrinsic value. Still the one thing that could lift some is limited supply and low inflation rates, especially those that tend to undergo halving's in miner rewards such as Bitcoin, though most coruptos (99%) are SCAM COINS! As many have found out during the corrupt0 blood bath of 2022 when several so called pegged to the US dollar stable coins disappeared in a puff of smoke with the rest teetering on the brink, so a case of having ones eyes wide open. Again Crypto's are SCAM CENTRAL! Especially during the bull mania phase as the scam artist celebs all try to cash in at the expense of their followers, the likes of the Kim Kardashian who settled out of the court with the SEC for pumping EthereumMax scam coin, and mega youtubers such as Logan Paul with his scam Zoo token game that disappeared in a puff of smoke taking millions of dollars of his fans money with it, though the scammers ended up stabbing each other in the back to such an extent that most of the scammers also lost money, rug pull on the rug pullers as the Dev did a runner with $6 million leaving Logan Paul and his inner circle down collectively about $1 million. Anyway crypto's are a case of having ones EYES WIDE OPEN, if ones eyelids are droopy then steer clear!
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And similar trend for the Gold price, also attempting to break out higher off the October - November base that is likely to Gold target a trend to between $2000 and $2100 during 2023 vs the last close of $1804.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Could Silver Price Outperform Gold Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Richard_Mills
Gold sold off following the US Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 decision to raise interest rates another 25 basis points. The federal funds rate now sits at between 4.50 and 4.75%.
Spot gold at first gained about $20 to $1,956, within $80 of the all-time high of $2,034, reached in August, 2020. The dollar fell Wednesday along with bond yields.
The market’s initial take was that the Fed is nearly finished raising rates. A senior investment strategist from Allianz Investment Management told CNBC that the messaging leaned “slightly dovish”, with the lack of clarity signaling that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle.
After hikes end, Charlie Ripley said the central bank will likely “sit tight while the economic data catches up to the policy.”
“The Fed is essentially speaking out of both sides of the mouth as they signaled further increases are appropriate, but also acknowledged they will consider the cumulative amount of tightening in future policy decisions,” he said.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Silver ‘Sediment’ – Encore For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER SEDIMENT
“Sediment is solid material that is moved and deposited in a new location. Sediment can consist of rocks and minerals…” and “matter that settles to the bottom…”
The silver price closed on Friday at $22.30 oz., down $1.15 from its closing price the day before.
What is worse, though, is that it follows a drop of $.50 oz. on Thursday. And, on both Thursday and Friday, the silver price collapsed early in the day, found the bottom level and stayed there.
From its intraday peak on Thursday morning in New York to the closing price Friday, silver declined $2.30 oz., or more than nine percent.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
SILVER CRACKUP BOOM! Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last look at the prospects for SIlver of early May 2022 warned to expect the inflationary crack up boom to eventually make it's way to the precious metals complex - The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential
Silver is at the opportune level of $22 for long-term accumulation that first targets the top of the range at $28 and then on a breakout higher to ultimately target the previous all time high of $50.
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Monday, February 06, 2023
QUALCOM QCOM Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QUALCOM - $131, EGF -13%, EGF12M -12%. PE 10.5
And last but not least is Qualcom - Qualcom has a finger in so many pies, will power META's Quest 3 headsets and beyond and for all that it trades on multiple of just 10.5, bouncing off a low of $107. EGF's are negative so I don't expect positive earnings, though in the plus side pays a 2.5% dividend. Qualcom is comparable to AMD though at near half the valuation. The stock just cleared resistance which means it could be propelled higher to $150, a rally that I would embrace to trim on. I am 112% invested and don't fret about it's long-term prospects, it will come good in the long-run regardless of any gyrations over the coming months, a good stock to accumulate on the dips.
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Monday, February 06, 2023
AMAZON AMZN Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMAZON - $97.5, EGF -61%, EGF12M -65%, PE 51
Another FAANG stock that retail investors obsess over. The problem with Amazon is that it has never been cheap! That has always been at risk of a valuation reset hence it's recent dissent into the pit of investing hell for all those who failed to read the writing only recently bottoming out at $81. If you look at the charts then you will see that Amazon is to date the only one that has become MORE EXPENSIVE as the stock price has fallen! This is a function of PRINTING SHARES coupled with Amazon being Bezos' personal piggy bank to extract funds from for his boyz toyz. The stock price has bounced to resistance so I don't see much upside. Amazon is definitely not one stock to get carried away with accumulating, I am not seeing a way for this stock to get anywhere near it's all time highs for many years!
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Monday, February 06, 2023
Apple APPL Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Apple
By: Nadeem_Walayat
APPLE - 141 EGF 5%, ,EGF12M 6%. PE 23.1
The Apple stock is weak, targeting the bottom of it's current range at $120, which if breached would then target around $106. However as the graph illustrates that whilst Apple is not cheap at X23.1, the fact that Apple is engaged in huge buy backs as illustrated by Share dilution at 80% shows that the stock gets cheaper over time even if the stock price goes nowhere, and hence acts as support under the stock price. Apple has positive EGF's courtesy of the buy backs so the stock price whilst weak is unlikely to experience a waterfall moment, instead most probable is that the stock price will continue to trade within a range for some time. I am currently 25% invested and will continue to accumulate Apple on fresh lows, i.e. sub $120, and maybe some light buying sub $128. The bottom line is that if there is one stock that could trade at NEW bear market lows then that stock is Apple.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
GOOGLE Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GOOGLE - $101, EGF -10%, EGF12M -4%. PE 20.
Google declares WAR on Microsoft GPT as founders Larry and Sergey return to lead more than 20 AI projects some of which you will have heard of, many that will be revealed over the coming months. The problem with Google is that the current CEO is a bit of a *****, a manager rather than a visionary, not aggressive enough, not when one looks at Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, hence the founders have come back to get Google back on track to turn it into the ruthless Sky net that we all love, to crush the competition so as to ensure that Google remains the primary AI company on the planet. The bottom line is that Google already has everything to out compete GPT and anything else Microsoft is cooking in attempts to out search Google Search.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
META Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
META - $143, EGF -28%, EGF12M -20%. PE 13.7
META is crawling it's way out of the pit of investing HELL after having collapsed to an unimaginably low price of just $89! A collapse that prompted crazy talk amongst the weak hands if they should SELL to buy something else, that is what capitulation looks like! At the start of 2022 the lowest I could imagine META trading to was $140, well it BLEW through that and only now has recovered to be perched just above $140. The investing herd clearly HATE the metaverse even though it IS the FUTURE! With the next big step being the release of Quest 3 later this year. Meta awaits it's killer app's which will be centered around running simulations of the real world as I covered recently.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Stocks Broke Higher, Will S&P 500 Go to 4,200? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday, as it broke above the 4,100 level and some previous local highs following the FOMC interest rate decision announcement. Recently the broad stock market’s gauge was extending its bounce from January 19 local low of 3,885.54.Stocks will likely open 0.7% higher this morning after quarterly earnings, economic data releases. So the market will extend an uptrend, and the S&P 500 may get closer to the important 4,200 level. It went the highest since late August of 2022 yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Gold and Inflation: Here's a Market Myth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
"If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then..."Back in the days of the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold could buy a Roman a well-made toga, belt and finely crafted sandals.
In modern day Rome, lo and behold, a businessman can become sharply dressed via the value of that same ounce of gold.
So, yes, gold has maintained its store of value over the centuries.
However, in the relative short term -- which can last years -- gold may not be the inflation hedge that gold bugs believe it to be.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Fed Postures as States Grow Alarmed at Currency Debasement / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
By Mike Gleason: As the Federal Reserve winds down its rate hiking campaign, precious metals bulls are anticipating a favorable environment for gains ahead.
On Wednesday, Fed policymakers raised their benchmark rate by just a quarter point. Chairman Jerome Powell also delivered remarks widely interpreted by markets as dovish. He suggested the Fed was close to declaring victory over inflation.
Powell also claimed that disinflation is now taking hold. After getting his inflation forecast wrong for two years by insisting it would be “transitory,” he is now trying to take credit for predicting the supposed trend of disinflation.
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
NHS GP's Forcing Patients to go Private - UK Healthcare Crisis 2023 - Delisting, Deducted / Politics / NHS
By: N_Walayat
Virtually every patient knows how difficult is is to get an appointment with their GP as patients as they tend to get kit by the brick wall that are the reception staff whose primary function is to STOP patients from getting an appointment unless they try several times. However not everyone is going to phone day after day requesting to be seen by their GP with many, especially men giving up. And so guess what happens next? The patient gets a letter from the same said reception staff informing them that they are being deleted, no deducted from the practice list because the patient has not seen their GP for the last few years. Seriously you cannot make this shit up! Prevented from seeing one's GP, where to be frank the 60 second consultations did not amount to much anyway, and then the patient giving up is informed they are being 'deducted' from the practice list because they have not seen their GP over the past couple of years. The NHS is a FAKE health service, where patients have no choice but to either go private or rely on Google for diagnoses and self treatment.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
AMD Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / AMD
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AMD - $76.5, EGF -29%%, EGF12M -8%. PE 20.3
AMD continues to crush Intel in terms of gaining market share by means of utilising TSMC technology against which a stagnating Intel could not compete that had propelled the stock to an eye watering high of $160 only to result in an even more spectacular collapse to $55! In fact when the stock was trading at it's low I posted - "The bottom line is buying AMD today at $55 is akin to buying AMD at it's cheapest valuation EVER! Which is why I am 154% invested!" Today I am still invested to the rafters in AMD at 150%. The stock price has recovered to $76, that is a near 50% advance off it's low that could run to heavy resistance at $100. However EGF's are strongly negative. which means AMD is going to find it tough going at over $80, every dollar gained will be a battle until earnings start to grow once more, so my strategy is to trim north of $80 with a view to accumulating below $70. So for AMD earnings are definitely looking like BUY the rumour and SELL the news.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
KLAC Q4 Earnings - Buy the Rumour Sell the News / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
KLAC - $414 EGF 20%, EGF12M -9%, PE 17.5
KLA is on of my favourite higher risk semi stocks that trades on X17.5 on a market cap of $59bn about half that of AMD so not exactly a small cap high risk stock. What sticks out is it's relentless earnings growth as the below chart illustrates. The great bear market gave us two great sub $300 opps to accumulate in a stock that today at $414 carry's a lower valuation then when it was trading at $200 barely 2 years ago! If any of the semi stocks on my list is going to blast off to new all time highs then it is going to be KLA! I trimmed on the rally which brings my exposure down to 75% so I am eager to accumulate on the stocks next dip below $400 in advance NEW ALL TIME HIGHS. EGF of 20% strongly suggests to expect KLA to beat earnings.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Market Wake Up Call / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.
Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:
(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.