Tuesday, November 08, 2022
The Fed Induced Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Dan_Steinbock
From early 2020 to early 2021, the Fed funds rate had been at 0.25%. Though the inflation rate in the US slowed for the third month to 8.2% in September 2022, it remained above market forecasts.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market Into 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 (Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022) analysis -
So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!
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Monday, November 07, 2022
UK Economy and British Pound GBP Trend Forecast / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big problem is this that as the Dollar rises investors SELL their domestic currency for dollar assets which is what all those outside of the US do when they invest in US stocks and other assets which drives down currencies such as sterling in a feedback loop, as a weaker currency tends to be accompanied by weaker economic fundamentals i.e. higher interest rates because there is less demand for domestic bonds and inflation rises because the cost of imports go up which feeds through to more selling of sterling for dollar assets in attempts to escape the falling currency which is where many outside of the US find themselves today, as my earlier example of the US stocks bear market in GBP illustrate. The consequences is that the US can bring inflation umder control whilst there's fat chance of the UK bringing inflation under control with a freefalling currency and given Britains perpetual trade deficit the odds of an significant sterling recovery is pretty slim.
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Monday, November 07, 2022
Powell May Be Planning a Post-Election Fed Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) took a dive last Friday following a middling jobs report. Could the move be the start of a bigger breakdown?
The DXY, a measure of the dollar’s relative strength versus a basket of foreign currencies, peaked in late September. Since then it has fallen into a sideways trading range, failing to make new highs despite another jumbo rate hike by the Federal Reserve last week.
Currency traders may be looking ahead – specifically to the likelihood of a U.S. economic downturn in 2023. The potential of another housing-led Great Financial Crisis also looms.
Monday, November 07, 2022
Stock Market Bullish Catalyst / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have done a lot better – and I mean especially those multinationals with a high ratio of foreign earnings. Tech though merely complied with the almost obligatory upswing – it‘s the formerly leading $FAANG stocks that are still most vulnerable, and especially so when the year end tax loss selling kicks in in the final two weeks of December. An underperformer, simply put.
For now, markets were lifted by the ongoing speculation about possible China‘s zero covid policies easing, and that concerns especially those related stocks such as BABA or real assets. If I were to pick a single best thing to have happened Friday, it would be the rise in yield spreads on a reasonably positive advance-decline line move.
Now, let‘s look at the headline reversal – once the existing China policies were confirmed to be maintained, risk-off was expected to raise its head again, yet didn‘t get too far. Already before the open, we‘re trading above my 3,780s level marking the daily bias as either bullish above, or bearish (consolidation only unless confirmed by outside markets) below. Cryptos are likely to confirm limited downside potential today if you look at Bitcoin at $20,700 currently (lower knot in the making).
Sunday, November 06, 2022
US Dollar Strength Implications for Global Economies / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US Dollar Big Picture
Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.
Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
Yield Curve Flashes Recession Alert! Better Times for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key yield curve has inverted, shouting loudly that a recession is coming - and with it, better times for gold.I activated the high-degree recession alert! I’ve been writing about the downturn for some time, but in October, another important indicator flashed a red light. As you can see on the chart below, the key yield curve has inverted.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
The 78 Year Interest Rate Cycle - Why Investors in U.S. Treasuries Face Major Risk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
Rising rates will be "disastrous" for governments, other debtors and creditors
The market for U.S. Treasuries is the biggest bond market in the world, and it appears that potentially big trouble may be afoot.
Earlier this month, none other than the U.S. Treasury Secretary herself (Janet Yellen) acknowledged ...
... "a loss of adequate liquidity in the [U.S. government debt] market."
Then, in a statement last week, Bank of America strategists expressed concerns about ...
... "large scale forced selling [of U.S. Treasuries]."
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
How to Trade and Earn on CS:GO / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Sumeet_Manhas
...
Sunday, November 06, 2022
Another Jumbo Rate Hike, Another Decline in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Mp> The Fed delivered another 75-basis points hike. Gold didn’t like the FOMC meeting and declined further.November’s FOMC gathering is behind us. It was quite boring. You know, another meeting, another 75-basis points hike…
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to -3-1/4 to 4 percent.
The Fed raised interest rates by that much for the fourth time in a row. It’s quite impressive, given that in the last tightening cycle, they increased the rates only in 25-basis point moves. As a result, the target range for the federal funds rate is now at 3.75-4.0%, the highest level since early 2008, as the chart below shows. Thus, we can say that the interest rates have finally normalized after the Great Recession! Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2022
US Dollar Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.
Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.
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Friday, November 04, 2022
Is Crude Oil Switching into Bullish Territory Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Oil prices are trading this Friday at their highest in nearly a month, benefiting from the looming tighter supply as an effect of market speculation around potential zero-Covid policy relief in China.
Available to premium subscribers only – New trading projections on Crude Oil Futures DEC22
In addition to the reduction in the OPEC+ production target of 2 million barrels per day for the month of November, the EU embargo and the planned cap on the price of Russian oil add to the pervasive tension in the market.
In addition, the G7 member countries and Australia have agreed to set a fixed cap for the price of Russian oil rather than a variable rate in the interests of clarity, while the United Kingdom has aligned itself with the European Union by prohibiting British ships and service providers from contributing to the maritime transport of Russian oil sold above the fixed price set by the G7 and Australia.
Friday, November 04, 2022
Fed Continues Tough Talk, but Gold & Silver Show Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Precious metals investors remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s latest jumbo rate hike.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced another three-quarter point bump up on interest rates. It’s the sixth straight hike by central bankers and brings the Fed funds rate up to 4%. That’s the highest it has been since 2008.
Investors fully anticipated the Fed’s latest move but hoped it would be accompanied by a dovish statement from Chairman Jerome Powell. Instead, Powell threw cold water on the idea of a pause or pivot at the FOMC’s next meeting. In his remarks, he sounded less like a dove and more like a grinch who was preparing to severely punish Americans for the Fed’s past mismanagement and impose more pain to financial markets as the holiday season approaches.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The yield curve has inverted which initially saw the stock market trade to a new bear market low following which entered into a powerful bull run, as has happened virtually every time that the yield curve has inverted i.e. initial stock market dips followed by a bull run that typically extends to over a year which the current price action looks set to replicate despite the recent double dip.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Are you Cut Out for Investing in Microcap Stocks? / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
By Chris Wood : I love microcaps.As a group, they generate 24.5% higher returns than bigger stocks, based off nearly 100 years of data.
They’re largely “undiscovered” by Wall Street, which means you can gain a real “information edge” 99% of the public isn’t privy to.
And unlike big stocks, you can get in on the “ground floor”... before the most explosive growth occurs.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Fed Hawkish Interest Rate Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may have done his last 75bp rate hike on November 2nd. But another 50bp hike is likely coming in December, and then the regular 25bp variety is coming in February. Meanwhile, $95 billion per month of Quantitative Tightening is rapidly destroying the money supply.
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Why PayPal (PYPL) Stock is Dying and Global Payments Inc (GPN) is a Better Fintech / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is why Paypal is a dying stock and why Global Payments Inc (GPN) is a better Fintech stock to be invested in which goes far beyond the fundamentals of P/E ratios and earnings yields and EPS as Paypal is due to release it's latest earnings report later today as this video illustrates
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Thursday, November 03, 2022
Tesco Cheap Budget Fireworks 2022 for Bonfire Night - Unboxing Midnight Mania box, What's Inside / Personal_Finance / Tesco
By: Anika_Walayat
It's bonfire night soon so off we went to our local Tesco's super market to get some FIREWORKS! Tesco usually have some sort of offer on i.e. to get 2 boxes at a lower cost than single boxes. There wasn't much choice though we weren't expecting much from a small counter, anyway we bagged ourselves 2 boxes of Midnight Mania for a total of £45 with each box containing 17 fireworks which was an upgrade from what we bought last year i.e. 2 boxes of Sky Fire £35, so lets open up the box and see what we got for our money!
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022
SMASHED Bond Markets Brewing Opportunity / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus script is that when stocks fall bonds go up, instead 2022 saw that consensus view blown apart as the below chart illustrates. In fact bonds have NEVER under performed stocks during a downturn, not even during the raging inflation of the 1970's!
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022
MONEY PRINTING - How an Ugly Yellowish Machine Minted Fortunes / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
By Chris Wood : Have you ever been lucky enough to own a “tipping point” stock?
They can create extreme sums of wealth in relatively short periods of time.
The greatest tipping point stock in history handed early investors a 102,400% gain in 10 years. That turns every $1,000 invested into over $1 million.
We might never see anything quite like that again...