Tuesday, August 20, 2019

UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall

The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!

However, against this consistent mantra of increasing house building is the reality of the real agenda which is actually not to increase house building to meet demand but rather one of leveraging house prices as being one of the primary drivers of the UK economy and thus the chances for electoral success, so forget opinions polls it is house prices that are one of the most accurate predictors for the outcome of UK general elections.

UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you’ve been following our research long enough, you’ll remember that we often discuss Fibonacci Price Theory and how we use it to try to identify opportunities and trends in the markets.  The basic premise of Fibonacci Price Theory is that price is always seeking to establish newer highs or newer lows with every rotation on the charts.  The theory is rather simple to understand and learn and it helps easily identify where support, resistance, and the trend is established.  Let’s take a minute to go over the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory before we continue.

This first example of Fibonacci Price Theory trend is a simple example that highlights the basic premise of the theory – price move always attempts to establish new price highs or new price lows in a trend.  Therefore, in a downtrend, we would attempt to observe price in a simple structure as you see on the left side of this example – establishing new lower lows and new lower highs in a series of waves.  In an uptrend, we would attempt to observe price in an opposite structure where new higher highs and new higher lows are set up.  Fairly simple so far – right?

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Case for Gold Keeps Getting Stronger As Negative Interest Rates Spread / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The world has truly entered uncharted waters with negative interest rates spreading so far and wide. 

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, recently noted that a whopping 25% of all bonds sold globally now carry a negative yield. “Investors” are even buying some “junk” rated bonds which will repay the bearer less than purchase price upon maturity. 

Now European banks, who have been absorbing the European Central Bank’s 0.4% charge to hold deposits, are throwing in the towel and getting ready to pass those charges on to clients. 

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

5 Ways to Save by Using a Mortgage Broker / Personal_Finance / Mortgages

By: Submissions

Monday, August 19, 2019

The Google Globalism Gulag / Politics / Google

By: BATR

The puzzling switch in the corporate motivation of Google seems confusing on the surface. But if you dig deeper into the manure of globalism, the notion that Google is primarily a business for profit is exposed as a distraction of what it really is and how it operates. It is entirely understandable that free internet services, especially when they usually work well and use superior features will attract the public in droves. However, the filtration of search results that only provide a biased outcome can no longer be denied. Notwithstanding, who benefits the most from the abandonment of the old motto, "Don't be evil"?

Monday, August 19, 2019

Stock Market One Step Closer to Confirming That August Low Is In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Ricky_Wen

The second week of August was pretty simple as the market followed our expectations from the previous weekend report. If you recall, the market chose to follow scenario 1 on the daily chart timeframe by backtesting into the 2858-2836 zone on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). This was the 50%-61.8% Fib retracement zone of the 2775 to 2940 V-shape recovery, creating a higher-lows setup. In addition, our must-hold level at 2823 held last Wednesday and Thursday as price stick-saved against this key level precisely and the bulls did their job in terms of the two massive feedback loop squeeze setups.

Monday, August 19, 2019

The Geopolitical Consequences of a Coming Recession / Politics / Recession 2020

By: Antonius_Aquinas

With the recent ominous inversion of the 2-10 year yield curve and its near infallible predictive recessionary power, the consequences for the economy are plain to see, however, what has not been spoken of by pundits will be the effect of a recession on US foreign policy. If a recession comes about prior to November 2020, or if economic indicators such as GDP plummet even further, the chances of a Trump re-election is extremely problematic even if the Democrats nominate a socialist nut case such as Bernie Sanders or Pocahontas.

Monday, August 19, 2019

Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This time is different. This is what the experts say. The inversion of the yield curve did a great job in predicting recessions in the past, but the current inversion is not like the previous. The predictive power of the yield curve has weakened, so it does not signal the recession. This is what the pundits claim. We invite you to read our today’s article and find out whether the experts are right and what does it mean for the gold market.

This time is different. This is what the experts say. The inversion of the yield curve did a great job in predicting recessions in the past, but the current inversion is not like the previous. The predictive power of the yield curve has weakened, so it does not signal the recession. This is what the pundits claim. Are they right?

Monday, August 19, 2019

New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Monday, August 19, 2019

Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we wrote that near-term risk in precious metals (Gold and GDX especially) was rising and a correction could begin soon. 

As Gold nearly reached major resistance at $1550/oz, the miners already began to correct. That negative divergence is an ominous signal for the sector in the short term.

However, the good news is, at least at present, Gold remains very strong in real and intermarket terms.

The first example of that is Gold’s strength against foreign currencies (Gold/FC). Gold/FC made a new all time high a few weeks ago and is now 4% above the previous all time high.

Monday, August 19, 2019

The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere In The Last Twelve Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

So, as the bulls pat themselves on the back for holding all the way down last year for a 20% draw down so that they can “enjoy” the rally we got in 2019, I hope they don’t hurt their arms and shoulders from all their back-patting. But, they may be in for a dose of realism when they realize that the market has now been completely flat for the last twelve months.

Allow me to show you a simple fact that should make bulls feel like they have exerted a lot of energy and worry, only to be completely flat over the last year. (And, yes, I am going to use a date from the middle of this past week for a reason). On August 14th of 2018, the SPX closed at 2839.96. And, now, one year later, on August 14th, 2019, the SPX closed at 2840.60.

Monday, August 19, 2019

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  We have started a correction of intermediate nature.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, August 19, 2019

The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: OilPrice_Com

Sunday, August 18, 2019

The State of the Financial Union / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold makes available the first two chapters of his most recent book that delve into the current state of the economy. After being bugged unmercifully by a couple of my so-called friends, I finally sat down in early January to write a tome about investing in resource stocks. It took me sixteen days to write. And another four weeks to get the cover and layout right. I had some important charts in it that couldn't be shrunk and still understood.

A couple of days ago I was reaching for a quote that I thought I remembered from the book so I picked up one of my test copies.

I read through the first two chapters and thought to myself, "Damn, this guy got it exactly right." That was before I realized I was the person who wrote it eight months ago.

One of the great advantages of getting old, other than just getting old, after all the alternative is far worse… One of the benefits of getting old is that you get to hide your own Easter eggs. That is if you can still remember when Easter is.

I never did find the quote. But I did realize that what I wrote in January could have been written twenty minutes ago and not be more timely. So I thought it would be a nice idea to share it with you. This isn't a sale pitch. If you have read the book you, too, will have already read it but have forgotten. If you haven't and think it might be worth finishing, you are just going to have to figure out how to buy it by yourself.

Sunday, August 18, 2019

The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months / Economics / Recession

By: QUANTO

Consumers continue to power economic growth, as retail sales rose 0.7% in July, after a 0.3% increase in June, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding autos, sales soared 1.0%, after a 0.7% climb in June. Economists polled by IFR Markets expected a 0.3% rise in the headline number and 0.4% excluding autos. Auto sales were down 0.6% in July, after 0.3% growth the prior month.

Preliminary second quarter productivity figures also were positive news for the economy, as non-farm productivity grew a healthy 2.3% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, albeit down from the first quarter’s 3.5% growth, the Labor Department reported. Unit labor costs grew 2.4% in the period, after a revised 5.5% jump in the first quarter, previously reported as a 1.6% decline.

Economists projected a 1.5% gain in productivity and a 1.8% rise in labor costs.

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our research to heart. 

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+ months.  So, please understand that our predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date, based on our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown event.  Thus, if you have already prepared for this event – perfect.  If this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following research posts.

Saturday, August 17, 2019

JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing / Companies / Healthcare Sector

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.

My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.

Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe.  We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions.  We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Things are worsening quickly now.

The S&P 500 has failed to recover its 50-day moving average (red line). Even worse, the 13-day moving average (blue line) has staged a bearish cross with the 50-day moving average, signaling DOWNWARDS momentum is building.

Saturday, August 17, 2019

It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Colombia’s peso is in trouble, again. Against the U.S. dollar, the peso has shed 20% of its value in a little more than a year and 7% in the last month. Like most Latin American currencies, the Colombian peso bobs up and down like a yo-yo, but its long-term trend is one of weakness. Indeed, since August 2014, the peso has lost 45% of its value against the greenback. Talk about a theft! The chart below tells the peso’s most recent tale.