Friday, December 11, 2015
Gold and Silver Exceptional Hypocrisy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Gold and silver finished largely unchanged in a lightly traded session.
There were no deliveries worth noting at The Bucket Shop yesterday. Nothing in gold, and a few bars of silver.
The gold warehouses were completely quiet, sitting tight with warranted (registered) bullion sitting at decades long lows, and with little historical precedent for their ratio to open interest.
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Friday, December 11, 2015
How Far Can The Syria Conflict Spiral Out Of Control - Interview With Pelicourt / Politics / Syria
Business is business, so why not buy oil from ISIS. The Russians claim the Turks are doing it, and in all likelihood even Assad is buying it. No one can fight a war without oil, according to Robert Bensh, partner and managing director of Pelicourt LLC oil and gas company. But while the politically unhinged are coming out the woodwork, the more important aspects of this story remain elusive to the public. Is the dangerously unspoken theory that ISIS is a bulwark against Iran what's keeping the West from tackling the Islamic State wholeheartedly on its territory? With no nation that can control it, the threat is now out of control and a war of ambiguous targets is emerging.
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Friday, December 11, 2015
SDR - China Takes a Big Step Forward / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
On November 30th the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would admit China's Renminbi currency, commonly known as the Yuan, to the select basket of reserve currencies that make up its Special Drawing Rights (SDR's). Having been stalled by U.S. influence for many years, the long-awaited IMF decision acknowledges the massive transfer of financial power from the old West to the new East. The move heralds an era of potentially great change with global implications for politics, economics and investments.
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Friday, December 11, 2015
Forex Trading Alert: EUR/USD - North or South? / Currencies / Euro
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 4 rose by 13,000 to 282,000, missing analysts' forecasts. As a result, the USD Index moved slightly lower, but did it change anything in the short-term picture of the euro?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
USDCZK Dips Worth Eyeing / Currencies / Forex Trading
With the end of the year rapidly approaching, traders and investors are busy squaring positions and taking profits in the lead up to the holidays. One of the most notably impacts has been the sustained downward pressure on the US dollar after the currency proved amongst the best performers of 2015, with the dollar index up 8.00% year-to-date. However, in the uncertainty leading up to the FOMC decision next week, the remains softer versus peers despite the potential for the unveiling of a new rate hike cycle. However, by comparison, Europe looks no closer to exiting crisis-driven policies and seems intent on keeping policy accommodative over the medium-term. The Czech Republic in particular has been mirroring the slowdown in Europe, marked by weak inflation and record low interest rates. With a major policy divergence approaching, USDCZK losses might present an exceptional opportunity to gain greater exposure to dollar upside in 2016.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Do You Have to Settle for Mediocre Returns in The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
"In the republic of mediocrity, genius is dangerous." ~ Robert Green Ingersoll
Morgan Stanley surprised everyone or, at least, tried to by stating that it was no longer going to be easy to make money in the equity markets. Let's stop, right there; was it ever really easy. If it were everyone that jumped into the markets would be wealthy, instead the opposite is true. Right of the bat, we can state that the best place for such advice is the dustbin.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold Bullion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
We’re at a moment of historic opportunity.
By Chris Martenson
Every year or two we update this report which lays out the investment thesis for gold. Here is this year’s version.
Silver is touched upon only as necessary; as a separate report of equal scope is required for that precious metal.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Stock Market Investors' Sentiment Worsens, New Downtrend or More Fluctuations? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140 and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Global Market Instability - Reversing the Damage of Economic Austerity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
A significant undercurrent of internal weakness is plaguing the NYSE broad market. This weakness is primarily visible in the dangerously high numbers of stocks making new 52-week lows. Lately that number has exceeded 300 on a daily basis, though it has been above 40 for the last few months in a sign that the market's health is less than optimal. The best way of showing this internal weakness is in the following exhibit which graphs the cumulative new 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Strippers Suffering From Low Oil Prices / Commodities / Oil Companies
With Prices Below $50, what is a stripper to do?With OPEC breaking down and any kind of coordination among its members on price cuts looking increasingly unlikely, it now appears that oil prices could remain below $50 a barrel for a year or more. As producers confront this unpleasant reality, some will finally start to significantly curtail or even shut down operations. And that is going to severely hurt an all but invisible group; strippers in the United States.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Will the Fed Rescue the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
If the Fed is going to rescue the market ahead of the FOMC meeting (they won't be able to raise interest rates unless they do) then they have two days left to repair the weekly charts. The intervention should start in earnest today. Personally I wouldn't advise trying to play the bounce as the forces trying to pull the market down are huge. This may be the first time the Fed fails to keep the market propped up.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
EURUSD Final Bear Rally Leg Underway / Currencies / US Dollar
Price recently traded down to support outlined in previous analysis before reversing and trading higher in impulsive style. While a turn back up was expected in order for the bear rally to embark on the final leg higher, this move was on the back of the ECB announcement.
There is always a reason for a move and the market does indeed work in mysterious ways. Some will say this was just a lucky coincidence and I must admit I don't truly understand it. However, what I do understand is that I have seen this type of stuff happen on too many occasions for it to be just a coincidence.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Currency Markets Anticipating a U.S. Interest Rate Hike Next Week / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Watching the price action in the currency markets it is becoming clearer to me that the Forex crowd has now moved beyond any expected rate hike by the Fed next week and has shifted its focus to "WHAT COMES AFTER THAT?"
In other words, we have probably seen the high in the US Dollar for a bit since the impact on the currency has effectively already been discounted into its price. Seeing the Fed Funds futures showing a probability of a Fed rate hike next week above 80%, for all practical trading purposes, it is now a done deal.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Stock Market 20-Day Back-Test Failure.....2020 Getting Closer.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The market is slowly, but surely, turning. We haven't taken out 2020 on the S&P 500, yet, so there's nothing to get bearish about. But you can see the subtle changes. The market head faked the masses today as these markets tend to do by blasting, and I mean blasting, up and through the 20-day exponential moving average. The bulls are in full control, or so it seemed. That's when a tiring market, such as we have kicked in, and left the buying bulls feeling bad about those purchases. About chasing the rally. The market fell, and fell hard, initially letting the bulls know they had made an error in their constant bullish behavior. A swift move below the 20's, and the selling was on. It's always about knowing where you are in the market in terms of bull, bear, or agnostic. Then you have to determine if the agnostic market is really a market sending a new message.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
U.K. Buy-To-Let King Liquidates Entire £250 million Property Portfolio - Video / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
Excerpt: Just a little video here about the UK housing market
really an interesting article in The Daily Telegraph that the title is
Fergie's Wilson Britain's most iconic buy to let investor sells up all nine
hundred houses for 250 million pounds for people around the world by two lakh
basically is one you you buy a house just to rented to someone else as an
investment in its quiet quite popular in the in the UK the last ten fifteen years
the rules and regulations have been quite favorable for buy to let investors
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Why Getting Valuation Right Is So Important To Retired Dividend Growth Investors / Companies / Pensions & Retirement
Although getting valuation right before you buy a stock is critically important to the long-term oriented retired dividend growth investor, it is not a short-term market timing concept. My point is that short-term market movements are typically volatile and unpredictable. The reason is simple. Over short periods of time, which I define as less than a business cycle (3- 5 years), emotion has a major effect on stock prices.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Petition to Ban Donald Trump from Entering the UK Heading for 1 Million Signatories / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
Donald Trumps latest electioneering 'calculated' outburst has succeeded in mobilising much of the world against him, let alone fellow Republicans condemning his Islamophobic statement that ALL muslims should be banned from entering the United States and then going on to drag the UK into his propaganda 'Info War' by stating that there were no go areas for UK police in London, something which the Metropolitan Police immediately rejected. Donald Trump's subsequent response has been to blindly continue on with his 'Info War' as he repeated his comments several more times throughout the day. In response to which there has been world wide condemnation as exemplified by a petition to the UK Parliament requesting that a debate be held to vote on banning Donald Trump from entering the UK as a hate preacher.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Stock Market Panic Decline May Have Begun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
We didn’t have long to wait for the sell signal. At 2058.00. The interesting part is that the 50-day Moving Average is now at 2051.80.
The Orthodox Broadening Top trendline is at 2045.00 and the 2-hour Cycle Bottom is at 2042.45, which have also been violated. Beneath that is a lot of air, which strongly suggests a panic decline.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Buckle Up, It’s Very Likely the Bull Market in Stocks is Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As I warned last week… it’s very likely that the Bull Market in stocks is over.
Stocks have broken their bull market trendline. Not only that, but they’ve been rejected by this line TWICE, indicating that the momentum is GONE.
The next move will be SHARPLY DOWN.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Government Debt Is Not Like Private Debt / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
Simon Wilson writesL As the Labour Party fights with Tories over the need to slightly rein in government spending in the UK, opponents of even the slightest bit of austerity have turned out to claim that there is no virtue in “living within your means.”
In a recent article in The Guardian, Ha-Joon Chang, attacked even the Tory government’s timid claim that it wasn’t a great idea to spend more than the government collects in tax revenues. But for the new radical left Labour Party on whose behalf Chang’s article was written, this notion is as quaint as it is “simply wrong.”
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