Wednesday, December 23, 2015
UK Christmas Sales 2015 High Street and Online Start Dates Full List / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's shoppers with more cash in their wallets look set to go on a debt fuelled spending binge at the cathedrals of modern Britain, though not quite as jam packed with shoppers as in years past as 2015 also looks like the first year where online shopping could exceed bricks and mortar shopping totals. Nevertheless there is plenty of cash to go around given consumers infected with sales fever hunting for bargains as Christmas has long since morphed into a month long relentless advertising campaign to keep spending all the way into January.
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
U.S. Secular Economic Stagnation? / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Stagnationists have been around for centuries. They have embraced many economic theories about what causes economic stagnation. That’s a situation in which total output, or output per capita, is constant, falling slightly, or rising sluggishly. Stagnation can also be characterized by a situation in which unemployment is chronic and growing.Before we delve into the secular stagnation debate – a debate that has become a hot topic – a few words about current economic developments in the U.S. are in order. What was recently noticed was the Federal Reserve’s increase, for the first time in nearly a decade, of the fed funds interest rate by 0.25 percent. What went unnoticed, but was perhaps more important, was that the money supply, broadly measured by the Center for Financial Stability’s Divisia M4, jumped to a 4.6 percent year-over-year growth rate. This was the largest increase since May 2013.
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Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Investors Gear Up for a Violent Uranium Price Spike / Commodities / Uranium
By: The_Energy_Report
The price of uranium is still in the doldrums, but that will change soon—and violently, says Rob Chang of Cantor Fitzgerald Canada. In this interview with The Energy Report, he explains that electric utilities will begin to run short of fuel even before 2020, when 33 additional reactors are expected to come on line. With that in mind, Chang predicts that prices could triple in the next few years, and highlights a half-dozen equities that will likely supply the increased demand and thereby deliver multiples to investors.
The Energy Report: Does cheap oil depress uranium demand?
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Wednesday, December 23, 2015
SPX May be Turniing at the 50% Retracement Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I am remiss in not bringing up the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline as a potential target for this retracement. It appears that SPX may have just turned at 2042.74 while the exact location of the trendline is at 2041.61. The 50% retracement point is 2041.57. While I did mention the 50% level this morning, I had not recently calculated the position of the trendline. Now that I have located it properly in the chart, you can see how many times (at least 5) it has provided support in the past month. Today it finally appears to act as resistance.
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
HUI GOLD Ratio Chart…Another Grizzly Year! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Rambus_Chartology
I was just going over some old charts and came across this one which is a ratio chart that compares the HUI to gold going all the way back to the bear market low that was made back in 2000. I use to show this chart quite a bit when the blue triangle on the right side of the chart broke down. This chart shows you a good example of how weak the HUI has been vs gold. The initial impulse move out of the 2000 bear market low shows the HUI really kicking gold’s butt until late 2003. The ratio then declined into the 2005 low which ended creating a double top hump.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Trading with Elliott wave analysis - GPS vs. Road Map: Which Works Best? (Part 2) / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
(Continued; here is part one of this article, if you missed it.)
Think of Trading and Investing as a Trip
Here's my advice: View the Elliott Wave Principle as your road map to the market -- and your investment idea as a trip.
You start the trip with a specific plan in mind, but conditions along the way may force you to alter course. As I mentioned earlier, alternate Elliott wave counts are simply side roads that sometimes end up being the best path.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Gold and Silver: A Positive Big Picture View of Risk vs. Reward / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
While routinely following the precious metals as one of many sectors in NFTRH, we have mostly left it alone with respect to public writing over the last few years. That is because it is in a bear market and since I am not a slick short-term trader, I have felt it is best to mostly just let it play out to the bear’s will without overly active involvement.
But several indicators have us on alert that 2016 is going to be the year that the bear ends in gold and gold stocks. So why not publicly discuss the shiny rock a bit more in anticipation? I am still 100% in line with the value aspect of a monetary metal that is historically sought after in times of doubt about the Monetary Politburo’s (Central Bankers’) ability to manipulate the global macro backdrop as desired and to positive effect over the long-term.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 U.S. GDP Growth Upward to 1.99% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third (and "final") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.99% annualized rate, down -0.08% from their previous estimate -- and down nearly 2% (-1.93%) from the second quarter.
Almost all of the revisions in this report were minor, with the largest changes again involving the especially noisy inventory data. Most of the other line items were essentially unchanged. Inventories were reported to have been contracting at a -0.71% annualized rate, a -0.12% deterioration from from the -0.59% contraction rate reported in the previous estimate. As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was actually revised upward +0.04% to a +2.70% growth rate for the third quarter, from the +2.66% previously reported.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Is The BBC Global 30 Index Signalling a Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
"A wise man is he who does not grieve for the thing which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has." ~ Epictetus
Much the same way many experts felt that the NYSE was issuing a series of death signals, there are just as many who share the same sentiment towards the signals the Global BBC 30 Index is supposedly issuing. This index is thought to provide a more accurate reflection of what is going on in the markets as it is based on the economic data of 30 of the world's largest companies. In today's world where manipulation is the order of the day, over-reliance on such an index might not be the most prudent of actions. It has, however, confirmed that volatility levels have surged to the moon, but of course, we already knew this would occur as this was predicted well in advance by the Market volatility indicator (V-indicator).
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market Retracement Not Yet Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
SPX appears to need one more probe higher to 2033.00 – 2035.00. Of note is that the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2033.27, so this retracement appears to be quite muted, compared to earlier ones. Of course, it may go higher, so the 50% retracement is at 2041.57, just in case...
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market Reversal Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX appears to have completed an impulse from its Thursday morning high. The correction, which is nearly complete, appears to be a flat one, indicating a further decline ahead. Today is a Pivot day, suggesting a reversal may be about to take place.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Is This Interest Rate Hike Rigged? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It’s official.This week the Federal Reserve raised the key overnight Fed Funds rate by 0.25%. The move was discussed, debated, argued, and telegraphed to death. We all heard about it until we hoped anything else financial would happen so we could finally put the tired story to rest.
Now that the rate hike is on the books, we can start talking about outcomes, like how in the world the Fed intends to enforce the rate hike, what it means, and what comes next.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
U.S. Housing Market Warning - Don’t Sit On Your Real Estate! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I suppose you could say we have World War II to thank.Upon returning from the war, soldiers had their GI benefits to enjoy and a deep-seated desire to start a family. And so was born (quite literally) the baby boom, and an accompanying surge in home buying.
Out of the ashes of destruction arose an American middle class and the first generation able to more broadly buy homes with long-term mortgages.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Jesus Christ Second Coming Imminent, Why There Could Also be a Third Coming / Politics / Religion
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The long wait for the always imminent Second coming of Jesus Christ may soon be over, and not just for the worlds 2.1 billion Christians but 1.6 billion muslims who have also waited for millennia for his return that is said would follow the destruction of the city of Damascus.
Christians - Isaiah 17:1 :
"The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap."
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Gold Price Not Signaling a Long-term Bear Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Toby_Connor
Gold isn't doing anything unusual. It's not signaling a long-term bear market. It's just doing what every D-wave except one has done by retracing to test the previous C-wave top.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
UK Mortgage Interest Rates Recap of 2015 / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
The year of 2015 will been seen by many as the year of the mortgage: competition increased until it reached boiling point, with all sectors of the market becoming embroiled in a fight for borrowers. As a result, rates plummeted until they eventually reached new all-time lows.
Indeed, calculations from Moneyfacts.co.uk based on the average two-year fixed rate mortgage show that a new borrower would now be £805.44* a year better off than they were a year ago.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
UK Savers - Make Sure Your Bank Deposits Are Protected / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Most banks looking for deposits from UK consumers have a UK banking licence and deposits with them are covered by the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) for up to £85,000 per person (reducing to £75,000 per person from 1 January 2016).
However, European banks are also allowed to operate in the UK under their home country’s regulations. This is called passporting.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Jesus is the Only Way to Salvation / Politics / Religion
By: BATR
The meaning of the true Christmas has been obliterated in the secular society that has turned away from religion and scripture. Churches are as much to blame as the popular culture. No sane person can be confident in the future. The country is in decay and disintegrating. Morals, values and ethical mores have been abandoned or been reduced to relativism that personal responsibility is practiced by only a small segment of the population. Christmas is supposed to be the celebration of the birthday of the baby Jesus. Mournfully, you would need to take a pilgrim's journey to find any evidence that this lesson of purpose exists.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market 1993 Or Bust..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
We can spend forever talking about what the market will do. Will it break down or will it break out. What will be the catalyst, or will it not, and so on. Here is the bottom line folks. Until the bears can take away 1993 on the closing basis with a bit of force, the trend remains basically trend less, with a bullish bias, meaning just meandering. But the bears are unable to take control. Control is different than meandering. Since we're still in a bull market, to me, meandering within it is not bearish. It's only bearish when a critical level of support is removed in a fashion that suggests much lower prices. We have yet to see that on any level. We get that if we can push some volume in to a break down below 1993. To be completely blunt, losing 1993 on light volume would likely lead to a head fake down. When a market breaks one way or the other away from a trend that was in place prior, big money usually lets you know it's occurring.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Four Mining Stocks that Can Survive Gold $1,050 and Silver $15 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
The price of gold has see-sawed since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Dec. 16, and market experts debate if the action is good or bad for gold. Rob Chang of Cantor Fitzgerald Canada believes that after the small rate hike doomsayers are overstating their case and that gold should sell in 2016 for about $100/oz more than today. In this interview with The Gold Report, he argues that in today's climate cash costs of $1,000/oz are the bare minimum necessary for survival. Happily, Chang highlights three gold producers and one silver producer that have what it takes.
The Gold Report: Some say the price of gold has for some time been suppressed by fear of a Federal Reserve rate hike. What do you think?
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