Monday, October 03, 2016

An Interest Rate Hike Would Be Ugly for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve taken bond math classes out the wazoo. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that became synonymous with bond trading itself. I was ready to start whipping ‘em around. Pity I ended up in stocks.

Now, the tables have been turned, and I am the old, wizened professor, dropping some knowledge on the younger generation. I occasionally teach finance to MBA students, and there are a couple of chapters on bonds where the students have to get their calculators out.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Deutsche Bank #1 Systemic Risk at $100 Billion (BNP Paribas 2nd, Societe Generale 3rd) / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Inquiring minds may be interested in a cornucopia of relevant numbers on Deutsche Bank including market cap, leverage, capitalization, deposits, liquidity, derivatives multiple ways, and systemic risk.

Systemic risk numbers are from Nobel Laureate Robert Engle.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Central Banks’ Bank Warns That China Could Cause Global Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve been saying for the past couple of years that the next recession in the US will probably be triggered by an external macro event or cascade of events, coming out of Europe or China.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph sharpens the focus on China. He writes about the recently released quarterly report of the Bank for International Settlements (“the central banks’ bank”). The report repeats Michael Pettis's warning that China faces growing risk of a major debt and banking crisis.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Out-of-Touch Fed Is Hurting the Average American / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : For the world’s top central banks, “the blind leading the blind” isn’t just a proverb. It’s reality.

A European Central Bank official recently said the ECB wants our Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in December. Why is that? In their twisted minds, it will confirm that years of monetary insanity actually worked.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Sterling Gold Rises 1.3% as Sterling Slumps On ‘Hard Brexit’ Concerns, Up 36% YTD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Sterling gold rose 1.3% today as sterling slumped again after the UK set a March deadline to start their ‘Brexit divorce’ proceedings from the European Union and on deepening nervousness regarding a ‘Hard Brexit’.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Stock Market Closer To All-Time High, Will Uptrend Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, October 03, 2016

Strongly Bullish US Equity Markets Will Drive Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: John_Mesh

Only one of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted a week-over-week advance, down from eight up the previous week. The S&P 500 was the sole winner with a fractional 0.17% gain. India's SENSEX was the biggest loser at -2.80%. The -1.15% average of the eight contrasts sharply with the 1.92% average for the previous week. The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Ken_Ticehurst

We continue to forecast a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.

Monday, October 03, 2016

As Predicted, Deutsche Bank Is Failing, ATMs Go Dark on Jubilee End Day / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

On Friday, Deutsche Bank’s stock (DB:NYSE) rose 14% on rumors that it had negotiated a settlement with the US Department of Justice’s demand for $15 billion (which is the entire market capitalization of Deutsche Bank) down to $5.6 billion (which would still decimate Deutsche Bank).

Well, it turns out that rumor was completely unsubstantiated.

There is no settlement. And it’s just amazing that the US Dept. of Justice, knowing that Deutsche Bank’s failure would rip the heart out of the European banking industry, is pushing ahead with their demands anyway.

Monday, October 03, 2016

Stock Market Correction to Worsen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening.  Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend:  The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Deutsche Bank - Signs of Stock Market Panic! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

John Rubino and Gordon T Long discuss the unfolding mayhem in the European banking sector and specifically what is behind the panic selling in Deutsche Bank stock.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Donald Trump's HUGE $916m Tax Loss Equivalent to $300,000 Trillion! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump often bangs on about how much debt the US has accrued to date and how is going to fix it. Yes, the government debt truly has mushroomed from $1 trillion in 1980 to nearly $20 trillion today. However, the New York times has given everyone a glimpse into Donald Trumps own personal financial affairs as the NYT has managed to get hold of Trumps 1995 tax return which shows a loss of $916 million for a single year! The NYT concludes that this effectively converts into Donald Trump not having paid any tax for 18 years. And this is just for one year, we can only imagine what any one of the Donald's other tax returns would show up in terms of paying zero tax.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Gold And Silver – Qrtly, Monthly Charts. Last Weekly Commentary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

This will be our last weekly commentary on the markets. What we know for certain is that the globalists have a stranglehold on the markets, and more importantly, a stranglehold on all Western nations to the point where life has become a theater of the absurd, negatively and without an end in sight.

We have been leaning in this direction for some time. Time off at the end of August, when access to a computer and news was limited to an hour a day, and we chose to use only a small portion of the allotted time, drove home the point, or more appropriately the pointlessness of what is going on all around the world.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Precious Metals Complex Monthly Charts Argue for Lower Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The trading month doesn't always end on a Friday but when it does we like to take a look at the monthly charts. Generally, I prefer daily and weekly charts because they have more data points. However, monthly charts carry more significance than weekly charts which carry more significance than daily charts. You get the point. One reason and a good reason we expect the current correction to continue is the sector monthly charts.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Choppy, Toppy Stock Market into Early October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, we saw the stock market whipsaw: up one day and down the next. That pattern should continue into October 4th with another down day Monday. Buy the dip! A cycle top is due on Oct 4. The whole pattern smacks of a sideways 'b' wave bear flag that should give way to a nice 'c' wave drop into week's end.

I believe we finally see that false break of the rising wedge I've been talking about. A test of SPX 2099/2100 looks likely by Oct 7. October 6th should be a huge down day, somewhat similar to September 9th. What a messy strewn out 'Z' wave we've had (see chart below).

Saturday, October 01, 2016

How Trump Can Win the U.S. Presidential Election After 1st Debate Meltdown / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Trump lost the 1st debate, it was not even close and Trump's statements following the debate have not helped trigger any recovery as going on the offensive against for instance with his 'fat' remarks against a former Miss Universe that even had Trump backers grimacing or claiming winning in fictitious opinion polls has just resulted in a greater erosion of Trumps chances of winning as illustrated by the betting markets that have continued to trend in Clinton's direction all week.

Saturday, October 01, 2016

SPX: corrective advance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started this choppy week at SPX 2165. After a gap down opening on Monday (DB related) the market declined to SPX 2142 by Tuesday’s open. After that it rallied to SPX 2173 Thursday morning. Then sold off (DB related) to SPX 2145 by Thursday afternoon. After a late day rally on Thursday the market gapped up on Friday (DB related) and hit SPX 2175. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Economic reports were mixed. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, the Q3 GDP estimate, pending/new home sales, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: Q2 GDP, consumer confidence/sentiment, personal income, the Chicago PMI and the PCE. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls and ISM.

Saturday, October 01, 2016

Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Commodites - It’s January 2013, With a Twist / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be.  The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.*

So, why is today like early 2013 and why is there a twist to that view?  Because two indicators have come together to point to economic stability (at least) in the US, with the twist being that other indicators are pointing to a potential unchaining of inflation this time, unlike the 2013 time frame, which was in the grips of global deflation (and Goldilocks in the US).

Saturday, October 01, 2016

Why Nervous Pensioners Are Running for the Exit / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: EWI

The Dallas pension system embraces risk with alternative assets

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

Friday, September 30, 2016

I Don’t See How Germany Can Contain the Deutsche Bank Collapse / Companies / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s talk about Deutsche Bank (DB).

Deutsche Bank is the 11th largest bank in the world. It has assets of $1.8 trillion and over ~$60 trillion in derivatives on its books.

From a balance sheet perspective, DB’s balance sheet is 50% the size of Germany’s GDP. By way of comparison, imagine if JP Morgan was a $9 TRILLION bank. That’s effectively DB’s status in Germany.