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Are the UK Elections a Forgone Conclusion?

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 28, 2017 - 12:41 PM GMT

By: Submissions

ElectionOracle

Ryan writes:The General Election being confirmed on the 8th June is giving the UK’s main political parties a platform to promote their policies and present their updated manifestos to the public. Prime Minister Theresa May’s snap decision to hold the election has been viewed in varying ways with some calling it ‘opportunistic’ and others agreeing with Mrs. May’s explanation that Westminster is divided on the topic of Brexit and that “the only way to guarantee certainty and security for the years ahead is to hold this election”.


However, whatever the reasons for the election, it is a near certainty that the Conservatives will be emphatic winners on the day. This is has been reflected in all polls conducted thus far, and even online sports betting operators like Sportingbet, who are providing betting markets for this event, all pretty much have Mrs May as the odds on favourite.

Mrs. May’s Conservative party are expected to maintain their course, running in the same direction as they have done since May came to power. It is most likely that their manifesto will concentrate on Brexit and the fact that Britain’s reigning PM is the most suitable person to negotiate the best deal for Britain. Other topics expected to feature are domestic policies on the NHS and education with a ‘good school place’ available for every child, and plans to open new Grammar and specialist schools around the country.  As far as the NHS goes, they will need to carefully consider their strategy as the country’s health care system is currently at the forefront of discussion and Labour will be looking for opportunities to gain emotive votes from the public.

Labour’s current struggle with the popularity of leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is not going to aid their attempt to replace the Conservatives at the helm!  Corbyn’s popularity in London has fallen to an all-time low, the fact of which is damaging support of his party.  Their position on Brexit is still not clear as the parliamentary party campaigned to remain in Europe and the most of their supporters voted to leave.  Corbyn does not share Theresa May’s vision on Grammar schools and, if elected, is expected to put a stop to her plans.  Labour have unveiled their desire to make Britain’s children the “healthiest in the world”, pledging to ban primetime adverts of unhealthy food and theoretically halve childhood obesity within the next 10 years. The list of intended actions toward childhood health (including tackling obesity, mental health and leisure) is extensive and, along with NHS solutions, Labour will need to outline how much these changes will cost and where they will find the funds.

Liberal Democrats, led by Tim Farron, held only 9 seats (out of 650) in the House of Commons at dissolution of Parliament in May 2017. With so few seats in the Commons, it is considered that the Lib Dems aren’t realistic contenders but their Manifesto will be published and voters will make their decision. In contrast to the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats are very much pro-EU. Their commitment to the single market and free movement of people is strong enough for them to push for a second referendum which could turn Brexit negotiations upside down!  Much of their economic policy aligns with Labour and it is expected that Mr. Farron will lead his party to stand-for middle ground votes from centrist Labour and Conservative members jumping ship.

When Nigel Farage stepped down last year, and Paul Nuttall took over leadership of UK Independence Party (UKIP); he made it clear that he supports a hard Brexit saying, “If we don’t get real Brexit … then I’m afraid that is a betrayal”. Nuttal also supports a referendum on the death penalty (for those who murder children), a ban on the niqab for Muslim women and an end to foreign aid, but as the possibility of UKIP getting into government is slim, this party may have to settle as a supportive backing to Theresa May’s leadership.

Therefore, depending on how one looks at it, this election can be a foregone conclusion for the Conservatives; alternatively, one can look back at Brexit and the US elections and build a case for a chance of a huge upset!

© 2017 Copyright Ryan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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