Global equity markets continue to carry a strong supportive tone into Q1. The percentage of rising stocks within the broad-based NYSE is holding above 80%, which represents an overly bullish reading.

Shorter term, models continue to indicate that the next low can be expected in late February to early March. The NYSE has been trading on an average 14-16 week cycle. The previous trough was in late November. As the bullish participation level for the NYSE remains high, the low can be anticipated to be shallow and short lived.

Bottom line: The NYSE is nearing an expected low with a high level of supportive strength. This market action is anticipated to hold the index above the 7800 level by early March.

Investment approach: The 2009-2013 bull market shows no signs of weakening and is progressing forward as expected. Investors are reminded that bull markets last on average about four years. This suggests that there is at lest another 18 months of advancing markets.

More research is available in the February Newsletter. Go to www.technicalspeculator.com and click on member login.

Your comments are always welcomed.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
www.technicalspeculator.com

COPYRIGHT © 2011 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present. He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms. He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

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