Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, December 14, 2020
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, December 13, 2020
Copper & Bonds Telegraphed the 2020 COVID Stock Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020. T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020. Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020.
My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand” failure, while the breakout in Bonds suggests risks are elevating. This is something we should continue to watch for in the future as Copper and Bond prices typically move before the US stock market begins to react.
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Sunday, December 13, 2020
Yes, "Active Stock Investment Managers" DO Behave Like the "Crowd" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
...and that's not a good thing
When people hear the phrase "investing crowd," they tend to think of Main Street investors. Usually dipping their toe in the water after the trend has been underway for quite some time, they are typically seen as the "more cautious" types than Wall Street pros.
Of course, there is a flip side to that "cautiousness": The "investing crowd" is known for panic-selling near market bottoms and going "all in" near major market tops.
What's more, Main Street investors are not alone in their "crowd" behavior. It actually permeates most of the investment world, including the professionals.
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Thursday, December 10, 2020
US STOCK MARKET Custom Index Charts Show Clear Bullish Trending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
My research team and I have created Custom Index charts that highlight the continued upside/bullish trend that is taking place in the US stock markets. We continued to stay moderately cautious in late October and early November because of the extensive price rotation at that time and because of the US election event. The dramatic rally in the US markets that started before the US elections prompted our research team to pause and evaluate how must risk was being ignored by the upside price rally. Initially, we discounted the rally as a speculative move in the market – likely to end badly and quickly.
Now, after our Custom Index charts have established moderate momentum signals and what appears to be a very solid global market influx of capital into various US market sectors, we believe this rally may still have some legs behind it.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2020
Stock Market New Short-term Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2020
Stock Market Is Terribly Stretched / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
When the market rallies after bad news hits the wires regarding the vaccine, and when the market rallies after news of lower job growth, well, that is the hallmark of a bull market.
You see, during positive sentiment trends, the market rallies on good news, and the market rallies on bad news. In effect, the news is truly meaningless, as the general market sentiment is all that matters. And, if this has not become abundantly clear to you since the lows in March, then there is no hope for you. In fact, the market rallied 1400 S&P500 points and over 63% during the worst of the Covid news, and during a full country economic shut down. How much more evidence do you need to see that sentiment is the true driver of market price?
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Tuesday, December 01, 2020
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
hen the market was crashing back in March, I distinctly remember how palatable the fear within the market was at the time. Many were even talking about how the market itself was about to “break.”
Yet, once we broke down below the 2400SPX region, and began to approach our long-time target of 2200SPX for that correction, I told the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that I was now putting my cash back to work in the market. And, yes, many of them thought me to be crazy at the time, with those members now telling how much they had wished they had listened to me and followed my lead.
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Sunday, November 29, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, November 28, 2020
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run!
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE
The starting point for this analysis is to remind my Patrons of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!)
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
One would think the Financial Sector would be doing quite well related to the booming housing market and a decline in overall consumer debt and delinquency levels. Historically, the XLF chart shows that $32 is very close to the 2007 peak levels before the collapse that started in late 2007. Currently, the February 2020 highs represent a similar price peak level (near $32), and the current upside price trend has stalled near $27.50, which is a very strong resistance level.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
Stock market seasonal trend is usually for a weak October followed by strong November and December, which this year is being disrupted by the election. So where the election cycle is concerned the first few months of a new presidency tends to be subdued, following which the bull market settles in and continues it's business as usual. So we could be heading for a subdued 5 to 6 months.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
Well, let’s start with the “shallow people.” And, within the context of markets, I am specifically referring to those with shallow and superficial perspectives about markets.
You see, the typical manner in which many view markets is that they see a market move, look to the news, and assume that the news of the day “caused” the market move that we see.
The reason that this is superficial is because we often see the market move in the exact opposite way one would have expected based upon the substance of the news event, leaving many scratching their heads. And, if you are honest with yourself, you know this has likely happened to you many times.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
My commonsense interpretation of EWT resolves in a clear cut 5 wave advance into the Mid September peak with subsequent price action resolving in an ABC corrective decline.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Confidence Erodes in U.S. Institutions... Is the Dollar Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
Confidence in American politics is now rarer than gold.
The U.S. election system, once sacrosanct, is losing the trust of half the country. Which half will depend on the outcome of Donald Trump’s efforts in the courts to demonstrate widespread fraud.
The political left is certain Joe Biden is the rightful winner. They dismiss Trump's legal team as hacks and are unconcerned with the sworn affidavits and other evidence of fraud brought forth in legal cases.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Stock Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
How does 2020 compare to the last 2 presidential elections in terms of stock market trend.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, November 21, 2020
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX. Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.
An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls. This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation. Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal. Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very real downside price reversal setting up in the SPY/SPX. Let’s take a look at some Weekly charts.
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Friday, November 20, 2020
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
The stock market is having its first significant correction since the start of it's bull run following the corona crash into March 2020. Failure to hold support at 26,500 is eyeing a trend to next support at 25,000. Though MACD is oversold so implies limited downside. Of course price action is heavily influenced by election uncertainty.
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Friday, November 20, 2020
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
"This is the highest ratio in the 20-year history of the data."
One of the historic ways that stock market investors exhibit conviction about the direction of prices is to use leverage or participate in the market with borrowed money. Yet another way of putting it is to "trade on margin."
Going all the way back to 1929, that was the downfall of many who viewed the market as a quick way to get rich.
Here's an Oct. 29, 1929 Boston Daily Globe headline:
Margin Account Dumping Brings Stock Crash ...
Yet, you can find examples in more recent history too
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