Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 19, 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The starting point for my stock market analysis is to remind all of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! )
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Analysis
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Sometimes the markets telegraph a key level or future target level in pre-market or post-market trading. Other times these telegraphed price targets happen during regular trading hours. Recently, the Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Contracts (YM) generated two unique high price levels near $30,000 over the span of about 6 trading days.
My research team and I believe this “telegraphed high price target level” is a warning of major resistance for traders. These types of broad market patterns are not very common on charts. They happen sometimes, but very rarely like this example on the YM chart below. This Double Top (Tweezers) pattern may be warning that the $30,000 level on the YM could become a major market peak/turning point. Additionally, the post election rally reached this $30,000 level on the day Pfizer announced the vaccine data, then sold off quite consistently throughout the regular trading session.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Are You Getting Ready For The Next Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published on Seeking Alpha pre-open on Monday November 16: I have read one article after another calling this market delusional, wrong, crazy, impossible, dangerous, a bubble, etc. And what is common amongst all these articles is that none of the authors expected the market to rise this high. Moreover, they all point to Covid as the primary reason for their bearishness. So, when they don’t understand what is going on, they resort to name calling.
But, calling the market names will not help your investment accounts. Moreover, has basing your market perspective on Covid helped your investment account? Rather, it behooves you to seek out a better way to understand the market.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Stock Market Uptrend in Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Access to Critical Market Reports / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Like millions of people, you may have tried your hand at intraday trading this year.
Sure, today’s market platforms make executing your trades easy. But winning consistently is still hard. Especially when the waves are as big as they are right now.
This will help. For 3 days only on November 10-12, our friends at elliottwave.com are hosting a new, trader-focused event, "Critical Opportunities FreePass.".
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Early this morning, the US stock market indexes/futures rallied on news that Pfizer’s new COVID-19 vaccine late-stage trials appear to show 90% effective rates. Overall, this is very good news for the US and global market economic recovery efforts. It means we may be able to get back to somewhat normal very quickly (as soon as the Fast-Track FDA approval process is complete). The YM (Dow Jones E-Mini Futures) reached a high of 30,000 very early today – which is a huge psychological level for traders.
After the US elections last week and the continued news of the outcome – the global financial markets were really wanting some type of good news instead of more chaos and unknowns. The Pfizer news hit the pre-market trading like a booster rocket. Before the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones futures were up over 1500 points – which is simply incredible.
If you’ve followed my research long enough, you’ve heard me use the term “Pop-n-Drop”. A “Pop-n-Drop” is when something big drives a big market gap which quickly falls down later in the trading session(s). This happend because market prices always have a way of reverting back to somewhat normal trading ranges. Let’s take a look at a few different charts/sectors to help illustrate this type of setup.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Stock Market Secular Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The secular upward trend of the world's stock markets never missed a beat due to the ongoing turmoil surrounding the U.S. President election this last month.
The benchmark world index (Dow Jones Global Index) is set to post a new all-time high later this month which continues the pattern of 11-years of higher highs and higher lows (Chart 1).
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far, will be gauged after the September-November correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction may have ended.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
What Causes a Financial Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Travis_Bard
Financial bubbles refer to a situation in which an asset sees a rapid increase in price and demand driven by a theoretical interest, then crashes as the rising prices become unsustainable over time. When reaching a specific value, the asset bubble bursts, and its prices reduce to a level that more accurately reflects its intrinsic value. Financial bubbles are typically attributed to a sudden change in investor behaviour, in which hypes, excessive speculation and the strong desire to ‘jump on the bandwagon’ of a certain trending asset play a part. In this article, let’s explore the potential causes of a financial bubble.
For a comprehensive history of financial bubbles, check out this comprehensive timeline by DailyFX.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
What to Make of an “Irrational” Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020
By: John_Mauldin
Justin Spittler : We’re also smack dab in the middle of earnings season. This is when companies tell the world how their business is doing. They reveal how much their sales grew and if they turned a profit.
Good quarterly results, as I’m sure you know, can cause a stock to race higher. Bad earnings, on the other hand, can send a stock into a tailspin. In fact, it’s quite common for a stock to move 20%, 30%, or even 40% in a day based on earnings.
More importantly, earnings can set the tone for a stock going forward. They can dictate a stock’s trajectory for weeks, months, or even years. But here’s the thing. Not all good earnings ignite powerful rallies. Sometimes, companies crush earnings and barely move or even fall on the news. We’ve been seeing this play out a lot recently.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
Why the Market's "Faith in the Fed" May Be Dwindling Fast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
A chart that could be "a proxy for the market's faith in the Fed" shows "a classic loss of momentum"
Legendary financier John Pierpont Morgan was -- for all practical purposes -- a one-man central bank before the Fed came into existence in 1913.
During the financial panic of 1907, the banking titan used his influence to provide bailouts for faltering financial institutions. And, back in 1895, he had actually loaned the federal government money during another crisis.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
Get Ready for a Post-Election ‘Fed Wave’ of Inflation / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
As accusations of voting irregularities mount, President Donald Trump’s legal team is descending on Pennsylvania and Georgia as well as multiple battleground states that have been called by media outlets for Joe Biden.
It will be an uphill battle for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes. As of this writing on Thursday morning, the final outcome of the presidential election remains uncertain.
One thing that is now certain: Voters denied Democrats the “blue wave” many pollsters and pundits had been forecasting.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore? Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
Trump or Biden - USA is Still Going Bananas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.
However the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory. One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12. This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).
SPY 240 MINUTE CHART
After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward. These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.
Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-November correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction could continue as a large sideways pattern at least into mid-November, and perhaps until the end of the year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stock Market Breakdown May Extend Deeper If Support Is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The breakdown in the markets last week may have caught some traders off guard and resulted in a few stressful days. As much as we want to tell you the selling is over, my researchers and I believe the selling may continue for a bit longer as the election and uncertainty related to COVID-19, global economics and post election stimulus and US government issues continue to plague future growth expectations.
We’re presenting these custom index charts today to help you understand where key support levels are in the broader market and to help you understand what to expect if this selling continues. Over the past few weeks, we’ve published a number of research articles that provide important background and context to this article, including our research on the SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern, NASDAQ E-minis Futures support levels, and what we see in store for prices of Gold and Silver.
One of the tools we use, in conjunction with our proprietary indicators, price modeling, and trading systems is our Custom Index charts. These charts help us to gauge and understand market price activity as well as to help quantify the scale and scope of recent trends. For example, we use these charts (and others) to better understand where, when, and how the underlying facets of the markets are shifting. Often times, this allows us to see how the mechanics of the markets are working before the outcome really starts to become evident.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Here’s Why The Stock Market Doesn’t Care About Next Week’s Election / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
We’re just days away from one of the most anticipated elections in history. And I’m afraid millions of investors are going to waste time and money trying to “guess” who’ll win and how it will impact markets.
The truth is, smart investors won’t waste a second worrying about which party will win. In today’s essay, I’ll show you why, and share some of my top stocks to own right now.
I could fill the next five pages with data points about how stocks performed under different presidents. I’ve even read theories saying it’s best to buy stocks on October 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on December 31 of the fourth year.
I’ve done all the boring work for you. I’ve studied the data back as far as 1897, and one thing is crystal clear: There isn’t some golden, predictable pattern when it comes to presidents and the stock market.
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