Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, August 05, 2013
Stock Market Decline May Come With Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The SPX is in day 42 of its Trading Cycle beginning at the June 24
low. Instead of 45 days from low-to-low, it appears that this cycle may be more like 60 days in duration. That gives us an approximate 17 calendar day decline from today/tomorrow, should the high come in on the next two days. The alternate probability takes us to Thursday, Aug 8 as the high, with the subsequent decline following.
Monday, August 05, 2013
Detroit and Social Credit, Stocks Contnuing Technical Strength / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
In 2009 I wrote an essay on Social Credit which for some reason has become one of the most popular articles I have ever penned. This, I reckon, is not because it is a particularly “exceptional” essay but due, in part, to timing. Interest in this “economic concept” has recently gone “viral”.
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Monday, August 05, 2013
Why You have to Be Invested in the Stock Market Right Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Our friend and frequent Money Morningcontributor Frank Holmes put together a chart of S&P 500 gains that you have to see.
The index closed July with a monthly gain of 4.9%. This is the 14th month since 2009 that the S&P 500 has gained at least 4%.
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Monday, August 05, 2013
Time for Caution, Stock Market Intermediate Top Within Days / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. After a brief consolidation, the bull market has resumed its uptrend and has already created new highs in the leading indices.
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Sunday, August 04, 2013
US Stock Markets Reach a Cross Road, Time to Start Looking for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
I have been targeting a move into the 1700SPX for a while, to the dismay of the bears, the bulls finally stuck a nail in the coffin of the bears, no matter how many times the bears keep getting run over they just seem to enjoy picking tops and loosing $$, it seems the bears just don't learn their lesson. I wonder if these perma-bears that keep picking tops have any $$$ left.
There is time to be bullish and time to be bearish; Elliott Wave helps us in that regard, if Elliott Wave is used correctly. Fortunately for us, we use it well enough that it is a tool for us, not a hindrance.
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Sunday, August 04, 2013
Can the Stock Market Get Any Better Than This? Korean Black Swan? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
What in the world is going on?! As I write this letter from the Maine woods, the S&P 500 has just cleared 1,700 for the first time. The German DAX continues to set all-time highs above 8,400. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 is quickly approaching its 1999 record high of 6,930, and its mid-cap cousin, the FTSE 250, just broke through to its all-time level above 15,000. And last but not least, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is extending its gains once more, toward 14,500. This weekend I am sitting around with some of the smartest economic and trading minds in the country. At Leen's Lodge, where we're fishing and eating where our phones don’t work, the question on our minds is, how long can this run go on? The debates can get intense in a room full of strong opinions.
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Sunday, August 04, 2013
The Trader Stock Index Games Are Ending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Traders shot for and managed to hit 1,700 on the S&P 500. At this point, there is no real reason for this other than trader games (start of the month buying).
The rising wedge pattern we’ve been tracking is essentially complete. This final jump in the S&P 500 has been a bounce from the upper trendline. But by the look of things, this is likely the final push.
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Saturday, August 03, 2013
Another Stock Market New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls for July came in a bit lighter than forecast, but the unemployment rate dropped from 7.6% to 7.4%. The devil, of course, is in the details. The market scratched its head over the report, as well as the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays for June, which had the additional complexity of major historical revisions. Buried in the data was the fact the Real Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita is down 0.11% year-over-year.
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Saturday, August 03, 2013
Stock Market Bull Pullback.... Market Hanging Tough..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The market has spent a lot of time trying to get back over 1700, and finally made the move, albeit barely, yesterday. It wasn't forceful by any means, nor was it followed today by anything to get excited about. Most of that caused by the Jobs Report this morning pre-market, but more on that later. The news was poor economically this morning which caused a gap down that did back test the breakout at 1700. The bulls fought hard and were able to save the S&P 500 from falling below the entire day. Not bad when you consider the bad news on jobs, but the problem still remains that we weren't able to pull away from 1700 to give the bulls a sense of safety for at least the short-term if not longer.
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Saturday, August 03, 2013
Massive Stock Market Wave B Top Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
It might be good to look at the big picture, since we are very close to the high in what may be the all-time largest correction in history. It’s been a difficult process to sort out the waves, since the pattern is somewhat irregular and sloppy. Here are the highlights of the analysis:
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Stock Market Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
We have continued to correctly project the wave patterns for months now at TMTF for our subscribers in the SP 500 Index. Our latest views were to look for a minor wave 3 top at 1698 with a pullback minor wave 4. We hit that on the nose with a 23.6% fibonacci retracement of minor wave 3 as we hit 1676.
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Can the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Continue Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Sasha Cekerevac writes: With the S&P 500 at all-time highs, market sentiment clearly is in the bullish camp; this must mean that all of our problems are solved and the future is bright for everyone—
Hold on a minute: if this were true, why would consumer confidence regarding the future decrease?
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Trend Changes in Financial Markets: 7 Key Market Calls / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave International is dedicated to helping subscribers anticipate the next major market turn. No, we don't always "get it right" - yet the examples below speak for themselves.
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Stock Market Valuation Very Expensive! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Courtesy of Doug Short: Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I usually update during the first days of the month. The four indicators are:
● The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more)
● The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing10-year earnings as the divisor
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Stock Market New Intraday and Closing Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: The S&P 500 bolted from the blocks at the open, assisted by a good jobless claims report and reinforced by a surprisingly strong ISM Manufacturing update. The index opened at its intraday low, up 0.22%, and closed the day with a gain of 1.25%, just a bit off its 1.31% intraday high. Today’s rally was good enough to set all-time intraday and closing highs.
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Why I’m Cynical Toward This Unsupported Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: I hate to talk negatively and am usually not a doom-and-gloom type of guy like Nouriel Roubini, “Dr. Doom.” Roubini, an economist, is the Wall Street equivalent of the character Grumpy from Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. Yet the more I see what is happening in the stock market and global economy, the more I’m becoming cynical on the stock market.
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Thursday, August 01, 2013
Ignore the Next Fed Chairman Debate… Asia is in Collapse / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
The big news is what’s going on in Asia.
The US financial media continues to focus on who will be the next Fed Chairman, which is unimportant in the grand scheme of things. Greenspan created the biggest asset bubble in history. Bernanke bankrupted the republic and created an even bigger bubble trying to prove his misguided theories. Whoever takes over the reins at the Fed next will simply have the honor of being in the driver’s seat when the whole mess goes over the cliff.
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Thursday, August 01, 2013
Catching the Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The Key to a Strong consolidation in the market definitely needs the USD change its momentum and trend in the medium term. I believe this is nearing as it is hovering around the support i mentioned previously and I have identified A really support line at 81.25 which reversal should be imminent if it touches that line.
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Thursday, August 01, 2013
Why the Stock Market’s Heights are Unrealistic / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: Investors continue to view this market with an extremely bullish view.
The investor sentiment readings on the NASDAQ have been well above a bullish 90% for more than three weeks. This means stocks could move higher.
Thursday, August 01, 2013
China Trigger for Key American Stock Market Indices Collapse? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Michael Lombardi writes: Why do only a few in the media and no politicians I can find seem to care about the warning bells being issued by the Chinese economy?
First, early this year, we heard the Chinese economy is going to grow at an embarrassingly slow pace in 2013 compared to its historical average. Forget a 10% economic growth rate and think seven percent or lower!