Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Stocks Bull Markets Never Make it Easy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Toby_Connor
I see a lot of people lately agonizing over what we should have done. By that I mean it's obvious to all by now that the correct move was to buy stocks back in November instead of precious metals and miners. I mean seriously, it's obvious that liquidity was going to flow into every asset class except precious metals. Well it's obvious now in hindsight anyway.
Of course everyone has conveniently forgotten how tough it was coming out of that November low.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Stock Markets Follow The Fed Brick Road / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Michael_Noonan
All we can do with the stock market indices is draw a few lines and then draw a few conclusions. It was easier with the SnP, but we had more words to add for the NAS. The stock market has been Fed-driven for the past few years as central planners have taken over, so we no longer see free markets, as more and more freedoms in other areas are being trampled over by puppet politicians.
Sometimes there is no need for any sophisticated computer models of myriad mechanical tools like MAs, RSIs, MACD, etc. All one need do is follow the obvious for as long as the obvious remains so. At least that is how central planners seem to work.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Imminent Stock Market Correction Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the severe correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
Intermediate trend - It is probable that the intermediate correction ended at 1398 and that a new uptrend is in progress which could carry a little further after a correction. However, it is also possible that we are putting an end to the move which started at 1343.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Is This the Death Knell for the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: Well, it had to happen eventually. The average punter is finally returning to the stock market. (Or, as the little girl said in Poltergeist, “They’re baaa-aack.”)
We have more than just anecdotal evidence. TD Ameritrade, the Omaha-based online broker, registered an average 370,000 trades per day in January, up from 30,000 trades a day in December. And, according to data from TrimTabs Investment Research, investors funneled $55 billion into U.S. equity funds in January, the most ever for any month on record.
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Monday, February 11, 2013
Gold Breaking Support, US Bond Market Crash, Stocks Hitting Resistance / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Clive_Maund
The Big Story now is that there is evidence that powerful forces will be brought to bear shortly to support the ailing US Treasury market, which is close to crashing critical support, and those wielding the power will have no qualms about sacrificing either the commodity markets or the stockmarket to achieve this objective, if necessary. We will look at the outlook for the bond market and stockmarket later, after we have examined the gold charts and indicators.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Stock and Financial Markets 2013 Investment Themes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: John_Mauldin
A year ago, Dr. Gary Shilling published the influential book The Age of Deleveraging, which followed his earlier work, Deflation (1998); and in today’s Outside the Box he updates us on his thinking.
Deleveraging of the financial and household sectors has created a terrific macroeconomic undertow since 2008, eroding growth. Gary argues (against many of the talking heads in the mainstream TV world) that the deleveraging process for both these sectors has several years to run before it returns them to the long-term trend. He notes that QE is having only temporary and limited impact, as each round of easing by the Fed has propped up stocks only until a crisis in Europe or the US undermines incipient recovery all over again.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast 2013 and Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones stock market index last closed at 13,992, having traded to a new intra-day bull market high of 14,022 and is well within 200 points of the all time closing high of 14,164 set on 9th October 2007 which has left many investors who have missed what amounts to a 4 year bull market asking the question whether they should buy now or not?
In this 2nd of a two part series I will seek to conclude towards a detailed trend forecast for stock market for the whole of 2013 and into early 2014.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
US Stock Market Uptrend Continues While Europe Weakens / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
A choppy but interesting week. The market had 1% swings several days this week, after it had remained in a 1% range for the entire previous week. In the end, new uptrend highs and the uptrend reached the OEW 1523 pivot range on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Foreign markets did not do as well. The Asian markets were -0.3%, European markets were -1.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.4%. Economic reports for the week were light, but remained with a positive bias. On the uptick: factory orders, the monetary base and the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit improved. On the downtick: ISM services, consumer credit and wholesale inventories. Next week we get retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
The Fed is Beginning to Remove the Punchbowl… Are You Ready For What’s Coming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Graham_Summers
A month ago, we noted that the Fed was becoming increasingly splintered about how to proceed with its monetary policy. At that time we noted that the latest FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed was in fact conflicted about QE 4 despite its public appearance of being unified:
Consider its recent FOMC minutes released on January 3 2013.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stock Markets Remain at Extreme Levels, Asset Class Correlations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Pallotta
For the week ending February 8, 2013, the SPX was up 0.3%, the Russell small caps were up 0.3% and the COMP was up 0.5%.
The only noticeable divergence within the indices remains the Nasdaq 100 which has failed to take out prior highs and has shown a clear loss of momentum. Technically it has violated model support and therefore is profiled as flat.
Small, mid and large cap indices remain in an uptrend as daily support has not failed though they are showing some loss of upside momentum. If you are long equity, stops that are recommend are roughly 1,500 on the S&P500, 902 on the Russell and 13,850 on the Dow.
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Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stock Market New Interim High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: The S&P 500 charged from the opening gate, after having had an hour to consider the good news in today’s better than expected December Trade Balance report. The December improvement will likely lead to an upward revision to Q4 GDP in the Second Estimate. The index hit its intraday high about an hour after the open and then zigzagged in a narrow range to a closing gain of 0.57%, not far off the intraday high. Today’s performance salvaged the week, which logged a gain of 0.31% from last Friday, setting a new interim high.
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Stock Market Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
There’s never a shortage of ‘big picture’ theories, usually of the gloom and doom variety. They certainly sell books; often cause anxiety, sometimes even fear. But they almost never come to pass.In the mid-1940s, as World War II entered its final stage, ‘big-picture’ theorists warned that the pending demobilization of 10 million men and women serving in the military would send unemployment into double-digits and the economy into a serious recession, probably a depression. They warned "when the war ends the government can't just disband the military, close down munitions factories and stop building ships. The result would be disastrous". They sure made it sound convincing, pouring out impressive statistics that supported their theories.
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Saturday, February 09, 2013
U.S. Economy Death Cross - Trouble Coming to Paradise / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Gordon_T_Long
The Macro Indicators are signaling there is potential trouble coming to paradise.
Goldman Sachs points out in a recent study that there is a remarkably strong correlation which has emerged as a result of global central bank policy initiatives. The steely eyed Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge points out:
We have noted the odd cyclicality in macro data (and its leading effect on the market) and it seems Goldman Sachs has also noticed that something is different this time. For 15 years, the seasonal patterns in Goldman's macro index have been mild to totally negligible; but since 2009, something changed.
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Saturday, February 09, 2013
Authentic Market Trends and Investor Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“There is no paper money in 2014 or 2015 that will be worth much of anything.”
“You can’t get [silver coins]. They sell out….Several mints have run out of coins because everybody’s worried about the future of the world.”
“Gold has been up 12 years in a row which is extremely unusual for anything.”
“Don’t Sell Your Gold and Silver Coins: Jim Rogers The Daily Ticker, 02/07/2013
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Saturday, February 09, 2013
Monetary Flood, Nothing At All, Then All at Once / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Adrian_Ash
Where money was tight, suddenly it's all arrived at once. Just like trouble does...
Everywhere we look, investors suddenly see nothing but blue skies, plain sailing ahead. Their change of heart makes us nervous, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
New York's S&P index is back where it stood in July 2007 - right before the global credit crunch first bit, eating more than half the stock market's value inside 2 years...
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Saturday, February 09, 2013
Stock Market Final Probe at the Top is Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Head & Shoulders pattern in the NDX was nullified by this morning’s spike higher. It was replaced by another Orthodox Broadening Top. This is still within the prior OBT made over a month ago. The downside gap also remains. The urge to reflate is obvious in these repeating fractals. Broadening formations are rare and reveal confusion and a lack of leadership in the index. That is why the break-down will be severe, possibly monstrous. No one will take the blame for it, of course.
Friday, February 08, 2013
Central Banks Rigging the Markets, Regulators Blind to LIBOR Fraud / Stock-Markets / Banksters
By: Brady_Willett
Thanks to a series of colossal failures that were impossible to hide, we now know that Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) could instantly access billions of dollars that did not belong to them. Thanks to incriminating emails and ongoing settlements, we now know that a horde of banks can collude to rig key interest rate benchmarks for decades. This is what we now know after decades of malfeasance. Just imagine, then, what still goes on behind the curtain.
Friday, February 08, 2013
Stock Market Insiders Head For the Exits, Do They Know Something "We" Don't Know? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Whenever the markets begin to look toppy like they do now, I turn to short-term indicators to help me figure out "what's next" for the markets. It complements the fundamental analysis I rely on for the big picture.
Some people - lots of people, in fact - will tell you that this is a wasted exercise. Predicting the markets, they say, can't be done. I disagree if for no other reason that if that were true, guys like Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs, Richard Branson and Carlos Slim wouldn't be the legends they are today.
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Friday, February 08, 2013
Possible Clearing of the Economic / Financial Cloud of Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Brian_Bloom
Summary and conclusion - The (selected) charts are pointing to a rising probability that the cloud of uncertainty that overhangs the world economy – with particular reference to sovereign debt – may be clearing. Specifically, the evidence is (so far, tentatively) suggesting that the banks can be expected to win the war for control over the global economy.
Implications of this are moderately bearish for gold, seriously bearish for gold shares, moderately bullish for the nominal economy, moderately bearish for the real economy; and one implication is that investment in bank shares may be both prudent and profitable.
The analysis below supports the argument of some, that the central bankers’ strategy for repaying sovereign debt will be to deliberately engineer an environment of negative real interest rates against a background of moderate inflation. If, coupled with this, legislation is passed to “manage” the proportion of retirement savings that is invested in government bonds, then this will allow governments to rob Peter (the nouvea riche wealthy and middle class) to pay Paul (those who have lent money to the sovereign borrowers).
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Thursday, February 07, 2013
Investing In a World of Make Believe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: John_Browne
In recent years, a high degree of economic, financial, and political uncertainty has resulted in acute volatility in stocks, real estate, commodities and precious metals. I believe that another aggravating factor has been the increasing skepticism through which the investing public views government statistics and statements. Read full article... Read full article...