Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, August 11, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Ever since the rally out of the March 2009 low began, I’ve been saying that we have been in a bear market rally that should ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of a longer-term secular bear market. This view has not changed. Based on the overall evidence at hand, I continue to believe that we are operating in an environment much like that of the 1966 to 1974 secular bear market, with the advance out of the 1966 Phase I low being similar in nature to the rally out of the 2009 low.
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Thursday, August 11, 2011
Irrationality Drives Financial Markets, That's How Systems Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Oh thank you, Wikipedia, for this definition:
“Irrationality is cognition, thinking, talking or acting without inclusion of rationality. It is more specifically described as an action or opinion given through inadequate reasoning, emotional distress, or cognitive deficiency. The term is used, usually pejoratively, to describe thinking and actions that are, or appear to be, less useful or more illogical than other more rational alternatives.”
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Stock Market Crash 2011 Critical Juncture Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Dear Investor,
The Dow plummeted some 1800 points in the past weeks.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Stock Market and Economic Overview / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
AVA Investment Analytics : Approximately three months weeks ago the U.S. markets began to correct. We warned about this first correction in the May issue of our firms paid research publications.
We followed up in June, forecasting additional downside down to the 11,800 level with the highest probability. This level was to be the repurchase area for those who decided to sell positions at the top. The Dow rallied in late June after hitting 11,844.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Fed Call Wakes Up Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Yesterday the Fed minutes were released and to cut to the end they told everyone what they already knew and why the markets have sold off 14% in the last two weeks. The U.S. economy is slowing and it’s not all transitory from bad weather and Japan’s tragic tsunami and earthquake. While people will debate the verbiage what was made abundantly clear was that the Fed is going to keep interest rates low for a very long time. The statement said rates would remain low until mid 2013. That the Fed would commit to such a long time frame is a very unusual event.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Return of the Stocks Bear Market, Do Central Bankers Lead or Follow the Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The bear market is back says Australian economist Steve Keen. I agree. Moreover, the recent action, including the rally, offers sufficient evidence. The biggest percentage gains in history have all been in bear market rallies.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Global Stock Markets Poise for a Rebound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Sam Chee Kong writes: Due to the Downgrade of the US Sovereign ratings by S&P, the current rout in the global stock markets seems like there is no end in sight. Last week the authorities hoped to downplay the severity of the downgrade by announcing the downgrade over the weekend when most markets are closed. Come Monday, all hell broke loose when trading bells open in Asia and Europe, markets are dropping like flies.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Run, Ride or Buy? What Should Stock Market Investors Do? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There’s an old contrarian investing maxim from Baron Rothschild that says “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” The idea is that the best investors strategize when others panic, allowing them to buy stocks on “sale.” The legend of Warren Buffett was built on this philosophy during the market turmoil of the mid-1970s.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Where Oh Where Are The Safe Havens From Yesteryear? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Gold Stock Trades (GST) is witnessing the resumption of the long term uptrend in gold(GLD) and silver(SLV) bullion and precious metals mining stocks(GDX). Along the way there have been many negative voices that were counseling throwing in the towel and moving into the U.S. dollar and long term treasuries. We see no underlying fundamental reasons and find that the safe havens of yesteryear are falling by the wayside. A few months ago Gold Stock Trades alerted readers that investors are being prepared for further accommodative moves by the Federal Reserve Board.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Why Is the Stock Market Plunging? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Investors the world over are still reeling from last Thursday's massive plunge in the US equity markets, in which the major indices all gave up more than 4 percent. It was the worst day for the US stock market since December 2008.
None of this should surprise those conversant with Austrian economics. The "fundamentals" of the economy have been and remain awful because the government and Federal Reserve are consistently doing the wrong things. The apparent recovery, fueled by Bernanke's sheer money creation, has been bogus all along.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
U.S. Dollar Debt Crisis, Vested Interests Bad Mouth Gold / Stock-Markets / US Debt
"Believe me, the next step is a currency crisis because there will be a rejection of the dollar, the rejection of the dollar is a big, big event, and then your personal liberties are going to be severely threatened." - Ron Paul
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Here Comes Stock Market 2008.2: My 5 Canaries / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I’ve been telling friends and family the past couple of months that 2008.2 is coming, and it may have started with the recent sell off in the stock market.
I have 5 things (Canaries) that I’m listening to too, to let me know we are in serious economic trouble, where the economy and stock market could have another period like 2008 or worse.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Sometimes Doing Nothing is Doing Something, How to Find the Stock Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Yesterday I had a dozen readers write to me asking if we should we be buying into the market now or commenting on what great bargain prices these stocks are selling for. I have written many times that "sometimes doing nothing is doing something". I told them that the hardest thing to do when the market sells off 634 points is to do nothing. I will explain why.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
S&P's Ill-Advised Downgrade Ushers in Stock Market Buying Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Kent Moors writes: A number of years ago, Standard & Poor's (S&P) gave me a desk in one of their offices on Wall Street. In those days, I was providing energy analysis for a short-lived S&P publication called Emerging Global Markets.
I never felt comfortable in that office. Actually, whenever possible, I avoided going there.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
S&P U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade: Where to Now? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
The credit rating of the world’s largest economy has been downgraded. That is a fact. Neither hand wringing nor stone throwing nor “I told you so” will be constructive under current circumstances. The overriding question is: What is the appropriate response?
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
U.S. Debt Downgrade Impact, Stock Market Are We There Yet? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
The question we will ask ourselves in 20 years is, “Where were you when they downgraded the US and the Fed?” This week’s Outside the Box is from David Rosenberg. He has made his letter public and graciously given me permission (at 34,000 feet ) to send it to you.
I thought about writing an immediate response to this weekend’s events but decided to wait and meditate on what has transpired. Clearly, we are at the beginning of the Endgame. And that saddens me. The events of the weekend were hotly discussed at the Shadow Fed meeting in Maine. My youngest son, Trey, was paying attention this year. Last night he said, “Dad, it is good for you that you are right with your book, but I don’t think it’s good for the rest of us.” Out of the mouths of babes.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
The Elusive Abyss, Debt Crisis and Gold Bull Far From Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Financial markets are currently in a panic, bonds spiked last week (this continues at the moment), cash deposit levels up sharply according to BNY Mellon, US debt downgraded by Standard and Poor's from AAA to AA+ and equities crashing. The Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. have now lowered their rating on the US debt from A+ to A after lowering their previous US rating from AA to A+ in November 2010. All agencies are warning us that they are on "negative" in their forward view of their respective US ratings.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Where Is The Stock Market Headed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
"He observed that human emotions collectively had major impacts on the movement of stock prices and Markets in general, ultimately creating patterns that kept repeating." - From a book on Jesse Livermore's trading style.
Markets at major inflection points are more a function of investor psychology and less technicals and or macro data. The struggle between bull and bear, greed and fear will always play a major role in the success and failure of investors. As Jesse Livermore discusses these struggles are a reflection of human emotions and since human emotion never changes they leave patterns that are repeated.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Stock Market Collapse Continues..... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The market doesn't fool around when it gets angry. It's certainly a reminder of how things are going around the world both fundamentally and politically. How often do we see a 512 point down day on the Dow, 136 on the Nasdaq, and 60, on the S&P 500 get followed up in a week by numbers as bad, or worse, on some indexes! Not very often in your lifetime. It was an amazing follow-up for sure. We saw the Dow lose 634 points today. The Nasdaq joined the party with losses of an astonishing 174 points, while the S&P 500 turned in a head-turning loss of 80 points. Small rallies along the way.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
What's Next For the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Three weeks ago I began urging members of my service to reduce risk and raise cash. I pounded the table incessantly for the past two weeks to continue to raise cash and reduce risk. I have not issued a trade alert to members in over 3 weeks, but by acknowledging risk ahead of the debt ceiling debate I was able to sidestep one of the worst weeks in U.S. financial markets since 2008.
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