Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, July 16, 2010
Dominant Downtrend Still Intact for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The BIG picture Bollinger Band chart work on the emini S&P 500 shows that the recent vertical upmove from 1002.75 to 1099.50 traversed the April-July down-sloping price channel completely. But during the last 4 sessions it failed to hurdle the upper channel resistance line in the vicinity of 1095-1091.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Rydex Bull Bear Investor Sentiment Ratio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Every week I present the following chart in our sentiment round up. See figure 1. It is the Rydex total bull to bear ratio. The indicator in the lower panel of figure 1 measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
SPX Cyclical Stocks Bull Market Lives / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Naturally in the wake of the recent stock-market selling, bearish theories have made a major resurgence. You can’t turn on CNBC for 5 minutes, let alone open a financial newspaper, without seeing endless reasons why the stock markets are doomed to spiral ever lower. But the little-discussed contrarian case against these mainstream arguments is pretty compelling today.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Investor Essential Clues to the Next Mega Market Moves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
“…In essence, these private banks and corporations now own the revenue stream of the Federal government and its taxpayers. Neat con, and the marks will never understand how "saving our financial system" led to their servitude to the very interests they bailed out.
The circle is now complete: in "saving our financial system," the public borrowed trillions and transferred the money to private Power Elites, who then buy the public debt with the money swindled out of the taxpayer. Then the taxpayers transfer more wealth every year to the Power Elites/Plutocracy in the form of interest on the Treasury debt. The Power Elites will own the debt that was taken on to bail them out of bad private bets: this is the culmination of privatized gains, socialized risk.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Profit Taking After Google Citi and BoA Disappoint / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
US equity markets were saved from a beating following the release of better than expected earnings from JP Morgan, a USD 550mn agreement between Goldman Sachs and the SEC to settle a regulatory case, and news from BP that it has temporarily stemmed the flow of oil from the leak of its Gulf well. Agreement on the US financial reform bill, passed by the Senate yesterday and it is likely to be signed into law by US President Obama next week, which helped too.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stocks Haven't Been This Cheap in Over 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Chris Mayer writes: I have friends and family invested in the ideas I write about in my advisories.
So, when I see someone, the conversation usually turns to stocks. You know how most people comment on the weather in some way early in a conversation. With me, it's the market people want to talk about first.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Baltic Dry Index is Shouting Warning, But Are Stock Market Investors Listening? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jack Barnes writes: Back in May 2008, when global investors still expected economic growth to continue, a thinly followed index began to broadcast a "red-alert" warning to those few who were watching.
The index proceeded to drop by more than 90% in the next six months.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Indices Rally to Close Narrowly Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices ended mixed today, but had a volatile path to get there. They started the day out moving down, bounced a little bit, and then moved sharply lower, taking out key support on the indices, but secondary support held. They bounced back in a steady 5-wave advance and pulled back sharply until the last hour. However, in the last 30 minutes or so, they came on strongly and spiked up on news that BP Exploration plc (BP) had potentially capped their oil well spill and that Goldman Sachs (GS) was going to settle with the SEC.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Short-Term Not Bad... Mid- to Long-Term Not Great... Goldman Settles... Gulf Capped... Google Smoked.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
There is no denying that this market, and more importantly, this economy, is in some very big trouble. The fundamentals are in terrible shape. Two reports on manufacturing (NY State and Philadelphia) this morning were worse than expected. Actually, not just worse, unbelievably worse. Just fell off a cliff is the best way to put it. No matter how anyone wants to spin things, they are in terrible shape.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Bearish Death Cross Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The sharp upward rally in the S&P 500 surprised many people, myself included. However, the rally did not change the "Death Cross" which we pointed out as being a negative and significant market event that does not occur very often.
This market's rally also did not change our weekly and monthly "Trade Triangles" which are still red and indicating that the trend is headed lower.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Investors Intelligence Stock Market Sentiment Indicator, Be Careful What You Wish For / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
File this article from Bloomberg under "the be careful what you wish for" column. The article highlights market sentiment data from Investors Intelligence, and for the first time since March, 2009, there are more bearish newsletter writers than bullish ones. While the article wishes this was a good thing, the entirety of the data series would suggest that it is not so simple.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Corporate Earnings Forecasts For 2011 Wariness / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Looking past the initial upbeat Q2 earnings reports, and discounting the optimistic $90+ S&P 500 operating earnings forecasts for 2011, we feel a nagging wariness about 2011 (just 6 months away).
That wariness is based on the enormous tax effect in January, along with the, by then, rising awareness of further tax hikes in subsequent years for national healthcare; and concern about the AMT capturing more families. Those are just federal taxes in the US, but state and local taxes are rising too; and tax rates are or must rise in other indebted countries as well. On top of all that is the backdrop of eventual stimulus withdrawal.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Forecasts for the Economy and Financial Markets 2010-2012 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Good or bad, everyone likes a forecast. Usually, forecasters like to issue them at the end or the beginning of the year but I thought that now would be a good time to review past forecasts and issue some new or updated ones.
Entering the fray with forecasting can be a dicey pursuit. No matter how confident you are about the outcome of your prognosticating, the unknown variables can pop up at any time. As much as possible, I embark on forecasts that I believe are not an “if”…but a “when”. I may get it wrong in the short-term but the final outcome is in the long-term.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
The Dynamic Web and the Fibonacci S&P Golden Ratio Support at 1013.14 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Those who followed the research of the late great market forecaster PQ Wall will recall his concept of the Dynamic Web for market price analysis. My Fibonacci price grid research builds on PQ’s Dynamic Web research. A brief review of PQ’s approach helps explain how Fibonacci price grids bring additional clarity and powerful investing and trading tools to the Dynamic Web approach.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Digesting JP Morgans Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks flat lined and failed to make it seven up on hump day, as a drop in retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s assessment that the economic outlook has “softened” trumped Intel upbeat forecast for record profit. Home Depot, American Express and Alcoa all felt the down draft and declined the most in the Dow as minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed policy makers saw no need to boost economic stimulus even as they trimmed growth forecasts but stocks did pare losses in the final minutes of trading.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Preparing for a Monsoon Stock Market Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The market continues upward in either a C wave or Wave 2 corrective upside re-tracement if I’m correct. In reviewing the pattern since the April top this year, we have had clear Fibonacci retracement levels of the 13 month rally. These occurred at 1040 and 1011 areas so far, 31% and 38% fibonaci re-tracement levels of the Fibonacci 13 month rally.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
China Shanghai Ready For It's Stocks Bear Market Birthday / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
China is 2-3 weeks away from being ONE FULL YEAR into it's most recent bear market leg. Amazingly, despite the old retrospectoscope pointing out that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC) peaked on August 4th of 2009, people are still looking to the "miracle growth story" of China to lead the world out of its slump. This goes to show how long the average investor can be deceived into thinking a burst bubble can re-inflate. It is the same scenario as people wanting to believe the housing market was coming back last year. Or this year. Or next year. Ain't gonna happen, folks, so move along.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Mixed, Narrow Close to Choppy Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices ended near the zero-line today and were mixed and choppy. The day started out with a move up off the opening, followed by a quick pullback that held support, and then they were off to the races again. The indices had a sharp move on the Nasdaq 100, twice making new rally highs, but the S&P 500 did not cooperate and could not even get over yesterday's late high.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Fed Says Economy Is Toast.... Stock Market Shrugs It Off For Now... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
WOW!!!! Fed Bernanke came out and said the economy won't recover for five to six years. When did he suddenly get so enlightened?!! He didn't know that until now? He didn't see this coming? Seriously? He went from we're recovering just fine to five to six years. Good job commander!!! We're so proud of you.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Corporate Earnings Season Optimism... / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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