Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Big Bear Markets Mean More Than Falling Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Many infamous authoritarian regimes emerged during or after big bear markets
Fear and uncertainty that drive a severe bear market are the same emotions which can set the stage for authoritarianism, in most any nation.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
CNBC Goes Too Far With Tag Team PIMPCO Bond Pusher El-Erian With Roubini Dr Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Once again CNBC has gone too far!
The futures were doing very well, up almost 1% until CNBC put together the tag-team guest spot of Mohamed El-Erian, the notorious bond pusher from Pimpco and "Doctor Doom" himself - Nouriel Roubini in a classic bear and bigger bear face-off that was timed right into the EU's lunch hour. Roubini's new book is called "Crisis Economics" and there's nothing like a crisis to chase people into the loving arms of PIMCO, where El-Erian gets the fees. It's odd that there's not even a simple disclosure statement from El-Erian to guide viewers like: "You know, I do well when the market does bad."
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Activity in Media Sector Lifts Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This morning in Europe the big story is the bid by Rupert Murdoch’s News International for the remainder of BSkyB. The stock is up 20%. Bloomberg has posted headlines saying that BSkyB “would support a proposal delivering value above 800p” after News Corp rebuffed an initial 675p to 700p. This M&A story has sparked a more general rally in media names such as ITV (up 3.8%) and Spain’s Gestevision Telecinco which is better by 4.2%. Other stocks on the move include broker ICAP (plus 2.5%) on an upgrade at Numis from “reduce” to “add”. But Inmarsat is down 4.2% after a broker downgrade. They were cut to “underperform” from “neutral” over at BofA Merrill Lynch. Healthcare Locums has collapsed 18% after admitting that all talks about a possible takeover have ended. But Spice Plc is up 6% on news that Cinven is considering making an fresh offer. Dow futures are ahead by 60 as I write despite some disappointing numbers from Best Buy. The stock has shed 6% pre market.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Stock Market Reversal at Resistance... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Stock Market Indices Reverse Sharply to Close Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices started the week with a bang and a nice gap up, ran hard in the morning and reached the session high at about 11:00 am right at key overhead resistance on the S&P 500 near the 1105 area. The Nasdaq 100 at that point reached near 1880, getting up to 1877, but they were unable to make any further advances.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Stock Market Trend In A Word, Awful... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What more can be said for a market that makes its fourth try at critical resistance with a positive divergence in place and spits the bit. Hard to believe how bad the market was today considering what was set in motion. If this was a head fake lower, what a fake it was. Bearish action for sure. We started out with a gap up that took us to that magic number once again at 1105 S&P 500. The market looked poised to take it out but we were very overbought on the short-term 60-minute charts where we saw 70 + RSI's and 90 + stochastic's. MACD's top side as well.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Stock Market Timing Correlation Against Currencies / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Pop Quiz: what do you get when you combine a stock market completely overrun by computer programs with central bankers who believe currency debasement is a means to generate real wealth?
Answer: insane volatility in which the entire market follows various asset classes tick for tick.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Unraveling Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Whether you call it a merry-go-round or a roller coaster, the ride of the past two weeks has put you right back where you started. While a rally was not too surprising, given the huge amount of selling over the prior two weeks, the markets seemed to still be trading on data from overseas rather than economic data here. For example, the huge rally on Thursday was, in part, due to tremendous exports reported by China rather than our rather lousy report on weekly jobless claims.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Is There Enough Liquidity in the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
When there is a lot of money available for buying an item, supply goes down and prices go up.
The same happens in the stock market. When lots of money moves in, Liquidity levels move from Contraction to Expansion. When Liquidity hits an expansion level, competition for stocks will drive prices up and the overall market will propel upward.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Rally Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
I continue to receive questions regarding Dow theory and whether or not a so-called "sell signal" has been triggered. Technically, with Dow theory there is no such thing as a buy or sell "signal." Rather, the Dow theory founding fathers anticipated trend changes and during these periods of such participation they would begin to establish their positions ahead of the anticipated trend change. They referred to these periods of anticipation as "buy and sell spots."
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Stocks Start the Week on the Front Foot / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Are markets becoming less sensitive to bad news or is it just priced in ? Poor retail sales data from the US on Friday (remember 60% plus of American GDP comes from private consumption) sent stocks lower early in the New York session. However, they closed up after a late rally led by IT and basic materials stocks. A better than expected consumer confidence number at 3pm BST Friday and a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association, which raised its chip sales forecast, sparked the comeback which helped the market overcome the largest drop in American retail sales since September.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Stock Market Light volume rally... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations:
Take no action.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Stock Market Stuck as Investors Demand Risk Premium for Buying / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks rose worldwide over the past week by 2% to 5%, swelling with sudden courage after positive economic reports from China and shaking off some worsening news in the United States about retail sales and jobs.
Yet results in the past month are still heavily negative, ranging from -5.5% for U.S. stocks and -8.5% for Europe. China has suddenly become the most buoyant region, up 1.5% in the past month.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Dow Jones, Crude Oil, Euro, Sterling and Gold Market Updates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
When you're trading short term timeframes it's important to have a check of what the long term timeframes are doing as somewhere along the line they interlink with one another providing critical levels and trading triggers.
We've been catching the short term moves with ease last week using our short term timeframes and with our TMS Strategy which has been catching some nice position signal moves using longer term timeframes.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Stocks SP500 Index, Crude Oil and Gold Trading at Resistance Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Last week we saw the financial market including commodities move higher which was great to see. But the recent run up has brought both equities and commodities to their key resistance levels. With Gold, Oil and the SP500 trading near key resistance points we will most likely have some sharp movements this week so buckle up tight!
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Stock Market Internals Are Pre Crash Unhealthy, Sitting on a Precipice / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Stocks sit this weekend at the precipice. Conditions are ripe for a waterfall decline. This does not mean there will be a crash starting over the next few weeks, so please do not go out and short the farm. What we can tell you is the risk of one occurring is higher than normal, that conditions that preceded prior stock market crashes exist right here and now.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Is the Stock Market Trend Ready to Repeat Itself? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
If we make the assumption the bottom of this leg down from the April top is done then the most common expectations are a bullish new high or a bearish right shoulder.
The bullish view is off to a new high. There's not enough technical damage to rule this out. It's not my primary view, but it's still viable. See weekly chart below for what that might look like.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Lack Of Conviction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Investors remain bearish, and buying into last week's weakness continues to be the right play -- so far. However, a positive outcome is far from certain especially since there is an apparent lack of conviction amongst the "smart money". Nonetheless, this is our "fat pitch" especially since we have defined our downside risk and where a failed signal might occur. Despite these concerns this is a dynamic market environment with the potential for big gains.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Stock Market Bulls Watch for a Higher High Whilst Bears Growl For New Lows / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Disappointing U.S. retail sales data on Friday failed to dent the stock market as it closed higher on the day and the week at Dow 10,211, up 279 (9,932). From the start of the week the stock market trended lower into an early week low at just below 9,800 that was followed by a volatile uptrend right into Friday's close.
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Saturday, June 12, 2010
Stocks Shrugging off Bad News Attempt a Rebound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Retail Sales in U.S. Fall as Consumers Boost Savings - Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly dropped in May, signaling consumers boosted savings as employment slowed and stocks fell. Purchases decreased 1.2 percent, the biggest drop since September 2009, following a 0.6 percent April gain that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Demand plunged at building-material stores, reflecting the end of a government appliance rebate, and sales fell at auto dealers, in contrast to industry figures which showed a gain.
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