Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last week’s market outlook was not clearly explained, so I would like to clarify.
Our models have not yet turned long term bearish, although they are getting close to turning long term bearish. But while building new and better models like the Macro Index, I’ve come to realize that at least from a long term risk:reward perspective, it doesn’t favor long term bulls. Market outlook and risk:reward are not the same thing. Here’s an example.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Why Are You Getting Stock Market Whipsawed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
This past week was quite interesting, as well as volatile. On Monday, we had a huge gap up right into the initial resistance region we had on our charts in the 2810-15SPX region. In fact, the futures struck a high of 2813ES, and then turned down.
Well, when the trading day opened on Monday, analysts and market participants were quite certain that the “cause” of the rally was due to the dinner discussions the US President had with the Chinese President. And, based upon that dinner (and nothing more than that), everyone assumed that the market gapped up “bigly.”
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As 2018 draws to a close and the global equities markets continue to find pricing and valuation pressures driving prices lower, a few questions come to mind for all investors/traders – Is a deleveraging event about to unfold? What will it look like if it does happen and how can I protect my investments from such an event? This research article is going to help you answer those questions and should help to resolve any lingering questions you may have regarding the true nature of this market rotation and volatility.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Silver Fails Miserably To Meet Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
No matter how harsh it sounds, it is true. Unfortunately, too many people don’t want to hear it and refuse to listen.
Acknowledgement of the facts doesn’t seem to deter its supporters. We are told that silver’s ongoing underperformance relative to gold makes it “a better buy” with “more profit potential”.
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Monday, December 10, 2018
Does Wall Street Now Have a Powell Put / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Michael_Pento
First let’s explain exactly what a “Fed Put” is. A Fed put is defined as: The confidence of Wall Street that the Fed will lower interest rates and print money to support the market until economic strength will be strong enough to carry stocks higher. The term “Put” is ascribed to this because a put option is basically a contract that offers a buyer protection from falling asset prices. It was first coined under the Chairmanship of Alan Greenspan when he lowered interest rates and printed money to rescue Wall Street from its 22% Black Monday crash back in 1987. The practice of bailing out stocks was institutionalized by Ben Bernanke; and then became a bonafide tradition perpetuated by Janet Yellen.
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Monday, December 10, 2018
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 10, 2018
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As I explained in today’s special report, our Macro Investing Index has been deteriorating since August/September 2018. This stands in sharp contrast with the 10% correction from this January – February 2018, when the U.S. macro economy was healthy.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
The Future of Net Worth / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Harry_Dent
Have I mentioned that this bubble in stocks – the one that most economists and analysts still claim “is not a bubble” – is now the greatest by far in its numerical advance, its percentage gains, and time frame?You’re damn right I have!
I’m broadcasting the warning far and wide, to any who will listen. Hopefully I can save a few, including you…
Unfortunately, people fat and drunk and high on free-money crack don’t see any bubble (nor do they want to, even if they could)!
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Friday, December 07, 2018
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Today’s post is really important. It’s based on the Macro Investing Model, which is something I’ve been working on for weeks.
The economy (macro) is set to deteriorate
Our new Macro Investing Index is described as:
As we’ve demonstrated repeatedly here at Bull Markets, leading economic indicators are also long term leading indicators for the stock market because the stock market and the economy move in the same direction in the long term. This is how you know if the stock market’s decline is a correction, or the start of a much bigger bear market (e.g. a 30%+ decline).
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom / Stock-Markets / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Gary_Tanashian
“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before situation turns decidedly negative.
Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio
Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield
Amigo 3: Yield Curve
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market tanked -3% today as the yield curve started to invert.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow closed down near 800 points Tuesday at 25,027, which followed a rally into the weekend G20 meeting and Monday's buying climax high to Dow 26,000 that the mainstream financial media put down to a halt of Trade War hostilities between the US and China.
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Tuesday, December 04, 2018
Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I wonder how many of you had your brains in gear when following the action in the market this past week. For those that did not, let’s review what happened.
First, the market broke out “bigly” on Wednesday, and every media source and investor was absolutely certain that it was due to the Fed chairman’s speech (even though he really said nothing new, as future rate decisions were always going to be data driven). Yet, the next day, the Fed minutes came out that clearly noted they are continuing to raise rates. And, what did the market do on that information? Of course, it rallied further.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The continued efforts of our research team to identify and quantify the possibility that the capital shift which has taken place over the past 18+ months may be shifting to other assets is in the interest of all global investors. Is there a new, more opportunistic investment that will take away from the capital that has been rushing into the US equity markets over the past 2+ years or is the capital shift towards the US equity markets still intact? These are the questions before us and these are the questions that will determine if the US equity markets continue to rally or continue to top out.
Monday, December 03, 2018
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: FXCOT
Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and South Korea’s Kospi stock indexes gained 2.2%, 2% and 1.6%, respectively. The Chinese yuan rose 0.36% to about 6.925 per U.S. dollar. Ahead of the U.S. open, S&P 500 futures also climbed 1.5%. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the deal on Saturday in Buenos Aires. It offers Beijing a reprieve from a planned increase in tariffs, scheduled for Jan. 1, on $200 billion in Chinese goods exports to the U.S. Tariffs were scheduled to rise to 25% from 10%.
We have been long equity markets in Novemeber from 2640 here: Be long S&P Since our trade, the equity markets have rallied over +4% in Novemeber.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 03, 2018
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market rallied last week and is now sitting just under its 200 day moving average.
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Monday, December 03, 2018
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is sitting right under its 200 day moving average right now. The stock market is demonstrating various late-cycle signs. These late-cycle signs are not immediately long term bearish, but it demonstrates that the long term winds will change in 2019.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.
Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.
This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.
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Sunday, December 02, 2018
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The SPX Index is trading within a Blue Box in our system, these boxes are areas in which the Market needs to define whether it will become an Impulsive sequence which runs in 5-9-13 waves or corrective sequence in which runs in 3-7-11 waves. Many traders who follow The Elliott wave Theory understand the idea of 5 waves followed by 3 waves back as shown in the following chart.
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