Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, December 08, 2008
Financial Markets See More Contractions / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Markets received a jolt of pain on Friday, as US employment numbers came in at -533,000, way beyond consensus estimates. The figures were the worst for three decades and are yet another instance to add to the ever growing pile of “once in a generation” type extremes that we've seen in 2008. Friday’s numbers were predicted by just one outfit (ING) and that was seen as an outlier. However, as a sign, that perhaps markets are becoming inured to the dreadful economic news US markets actually managed to rally into the close on Friday. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished down on the week, but well above the week’s lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Manipulated Stock Market Discounting a Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
Welcome to the Weekly Report. This week some fool decided the US had been in recession for a year. I hope they don't get paid too much. What I find amusing is that straight away all sorts of bull side writers and shills started talking about the US stock market being a discounting system, looking 6 months ahead, look for signs of recovery etc blah.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Investors Selling Safe Treasury Bonds to Buy Higher Risk Equties / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Last week we wrote about the Lehman 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) as an indicator of flight to safety, which we believed was starting to wane. On Friday the TLTs, which move inversely to yields, violated an important initial support plateau at 111.45, while equities rallied, the first such signal that some more money is coming out of the safety of ZERO return, seeking "a bit more risk."Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Stock Market Technicals Point to Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: Downside volume has been fading quickly.
Short Term Downside volume and new lows are the best indicators of bottoms.
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Saturday, December 06, 2008
Fed Gambles Trillions to Stabilise Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Over a Half Million Jobs Axed in November. There is no joy on Main Street this holiday season as 533,000 jobs were axed in November.
“Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-533,000) in November, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and 320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors in November.”
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Friday, December 05, 2008
Stock Market Volatility Connecting the Dots Analysis Video / Stock-Markets / Volatility
One of the easiest ways to determine the trend in any market is simply to connect the dot's. In this five minute video, I explain how you can connect the dots in any market to determine its trend. I will show you three examples of connecting the dots...Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
US Jobs Report To Set Market Tone / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
Yesterday was another sloppy day for stocks which sagged under the weight of earnings misses and dismal 2009 guidance (Nokia, Merck), big layoff announcements (AT&T, DuPont), weak chain stores sales numbers and ever widening credit spreads for corporates. This sell off comes despite another supportive plunge in the price of crude oil and more eye catching rate cuts from central banks in New Zealand, Indonesia, Sweden, UK and the Eurozone.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
Stocks Bear Market When Will it End? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The importance of reviewing leading indicators Analysts, market pundits and the financial media are all looking for evidence of the current bear market bottom. Many forecasts from market experts have been announced over the past few weeks that a low may have already been established in the S&P 500. The rational for this statement covers the range from the historical decline percentage of bear markets over the past 60 years, the much quoted TED spread and its recent narrowing, the all-time high of the volatility index (VIX) and attractive valuations on many, many stocks.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Stock Market Short Term Support & Trend Lines Broken / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The indices had what appeared to be a constructive morning, as they moved back and forth in a fairly narrow & orderly manner, getting several swings that were unable to break out or down, until the afternoon when they ultimately rolled over hard.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Opportunities in the Global Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
As various companies go hat in hand to Washington for a bailout, a recurring topic is what guaranty do the taxpayers get that they're not just throwing more money down a hole. Good question. Who wants warrants or preferred shares if the company is doomed anyway? What you're seeing take place are negotiated backstops between the US Government and pools of capital. A couple of examples:Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Why Bond Markets Are Right, Depression Coming, No Time to Buy Equities / Stock-Markets / Economic Depression
Let's hear it for Ghana . The Ghanaian stock exchange is the planet's top performer this year – up a cool 60% to be exact. And in sterling terms it's up by two-thirds.
But nearly every other equity market in the world, including our own, is in a complete tailspin. And despite more and more bulls poking their heads above the parapet, the latest news is extra evidence that the selling's set to continue...
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Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Homebuilders ETF Surges Higher / Stock-Markets / Housing Stocks
The Homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB) appears to have established a significant low at 8.21 on Nov 21, and already has carved out what exhibits a bullish initial upleg from 8.21 to 12.24 (11/26). The pullback into yesterday's low at 10.32 has been reversed this morning, in a powerful surge that is nearing a retest of the 11/26 high, which if hurdled should trigger additional strength towards a confrontation with the declining 50 DMA, now at 13.83.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Shakes Off Mid-Day Decline to Close Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
It was another volatile session, very similar to yesterday, except for the late afternoon rally. The indices opened lower, bounced around, and then took off in a very sharp rally that took the NDX from 1105 to 1158, a 53-point rally inside of an hour and a half. The S&P 500 went from about 828 to about 864 in that time frame.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The Important Connection Between Stock Market New Lows and Relative Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
What can the NYA New Lows vs. the S&P's Relative Strength tell you about the market?
We have discussed the NYA "New Daily Lows" vs. the market many times before. Basically, when New Lows fall to below 50 to 28 per day, the market faces a condition where investors have pretty much stopped the big selling and have decided to hold on to the stocks they are still in.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Deflationary Trend Scenario Into into 2013 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Welcome to An Occasional Letter, the third part of the development of the new scenario that I believe will play out over the next 5 or so years. In the last 2 articles we looked at the new themes emerging from the pyre that was Financial Innovation, in this article its time to develop the new road ahead.
If you want to catch up on the first 2 articles click article 1 and article 2 .
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Systemic Risks Means this is a Traders Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The latest valueline report makes very sombre reading: "The economy is now in a deepening slump, which is now characterized by issues of viability in the troubled auto sector, by the need for a monumental bailout of ailing behemoth Citi-group, and by further reversions on the housing market, where existing home sales resumed their decline in October and prices fell by the most on record. Given this dour backdrop, it is not surprising that we expect the downwardly revised .5% decline in third quarter gross domestic product to be followed by a materially large 3%-5% set back in GDP in the final three months of the year. The news is likely to get worse before it gets better."Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
U.S. Stock Market Valuations and Returns, What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Stock market movements over the past few months have been characterized by increased volatility as uncertainty became paramount. And as new pieces of the economics puzzle are added every day, investors are increasingly grappling to make sense of the most likely direction of stock prices.
It seems to be a case of so many pundits, so many views. Has the market started bottoming out, or are bourses still in the grip of the bear? Or is a “muddle-through” trading range in store?
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Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Caution, Caution, and More Caution / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Just when you think you have this figured out in this impossible environment, you recognize you don't -- and thus the reason to be either all cash or very close to it. Getting aggressive in any way, shape or form is incredibly inappropriate. Two days ago things looked good. Monday made things look bad, but Tuesday not so bad as those daily Macd's hung in there very well -- but of course could totally collapse tomorrow out of no where.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Indices Get Strong Finish to Finish near Highs in Volatile Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The markets had a volatile session, but a got very strong finish, closing at the highs for the day on some of the indices and near them on the others.
The day started out with positive market futures, but they had come way off their early pre-market highs. They opened positive but then sold off immediately to retest yesterday's late lows, but held there. When that happened, they staged a very strong rally in the morning that took the Nasdaq 100 from about 1192 to 1137, about a 45-point rally.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Plunging Domestic and Global Funds Money Flows / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Mutual fund money flows, which are a good indicator of overall retail investor market views, have been strongly negative in recent months. Global and international equity funds have experienced greater negative money flows than domestic US mutual funds this year. Until the 2008 market drops, US equity funds received lower money inflows than global and international funds.Read full article... Read full article...