Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 17, 2019
Deflationary Assets Surge in Performance Over Inflationary Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
Deflationary assets (financials, technology, industrials, healthcare and consumer products) are outperforming inflationary assets (commodities), once again.
Deflationary sectors have been dominant over inflationary assets for most of the last seven years. Outside of the short-term surge in performance from commodities in 2016, deflationary assets have held the top performance spot for most of the period from 2012 to 2019.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout. We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part. It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes. Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.
The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility. That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain. After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Nasdaq De-FAANGed? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Submissions
By Zac Mannes : We generally chart the regular NASDAQ -- the NDX, QQQ, and the futures -- but when you consider that a mere five momentum names, affectionately given the acronym "FAANG," comprise nearly 40% of the weighting of the entire index, a glance at the Equal Weight version is not a bad idea. I prefer the First Trust (QQEW) to the Direxion (QQQE) as it seems to chart slightly cleaner and the "EW" is easier to remember.
Watching for nuanced differentiation in the patterns between the QQEW and NDX, it is possible to see the potential for the former to lead a bit. For example, back in August/September of 2018, QQEW marked a divergent high. More recently, the QQEW began to count more like the blue 5th wave extension of (5) of Primary Wave 3 before the NDX shifted from it's "(B)" wave.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: EWI
Take a look at stock market behavior in times of war... and peace
By Bob Stokes
After the U.S. recently announced new sanctions against Iran, tensions have escalated between the two countries.
USA Today reported (May 7):
The Pentagon is rushing additional military muscle, including B-52 bombers, to the Middle East to counter Iranian threats to U.S. troops on the ground and at sea.
Of course, it's always best when military conflict can be avoided because as U.S. President Abraham Lincoln said in an 1864 speech:
War at the best, is terrible ...
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nifty 50 Indian Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / India
By: WavePatternTraders
We are currently tracking a possible impulse wave from the all-time high at 11855, a new low is still needed to end a 5th wave of a suspected impulse wave as shown. Whilst the Banknifty has moved to a new low, we want to see the Nifty confirm that new low on the Banknifty, that would offer a bearish reversal clue.
If we do see a 5th wave to end the current impulse wave idea from the April 2018 high, then a bounce thereafter in 3 waves can be sold against 11855 stops. Based on the wave pattern from the lows made in 2016, the decline from 11855 could be a very important reversal signal, although we are taking it one step at a time.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of the FTSE futures / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: WavePatternTraders
The strong reversal from the April 2018 high appears impulse looking on a few world stock markets, particularly the FTSE and NIK-225. So we are focussed on the cleaner patterns from the April high. Having put in a 5th wave to end an impulse wave from the April 2018 high a few days back, the subsequent bounce we have seen over the last few days is of no surprise to us, its actually what we want to see, as we are looking for a partial retracement in 3 or 7 waves to offer a bearish setup for a move lower.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been rallying throughout the day and selling off at night throughout the recent stock market decline. Is this the sign of something more sinister that’s going on in the stock market. Meanwhile, interest rates are falling.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Current State - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The stock market fell in capitulation on Monday, a ‘c’ of “z” type wave that got everyone beared-up. Monday was the 16 TD low and could be the 20 week low as well (94 trading days of the 100 trading day low 15 trading days). The ten week went 49/50 trading days in early March, which is normal. As of Monday we saw 44/45 trading days, which could complete a 10/20 week low pattern (at least 2 ten week patterns).The Dow 30 looks to have made a possible xyz type of B wave bull flag Monday (at least it could be viewed that way by traders). The Dow topped on April 23rd where the SPX topped on May 1, 6 trading days later, making a “b” wave for the Dow, but an irregular “y” wave top for the SPX. It is possible from this configuration that we could see a strong wave of buying into May 21st and then a hard drop into June 5th (110 trading days and 16 trading days from May 13th).
So, we are not out of the woods just yet. My preferred count is a strong rally into early July from May 13th then down into late Sept/early October. The normal 4-year cycle has the July top late in the month or even in early August. For this to happen, we need another big drop like Jan-Feb 2018 from May 21-June 5 to finish Wave B. The reason is, C would = A in time in price. This is called the Equality of Waves Principle.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
An unexpected news event caused the stock market to plunge over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrials losing several hundred points. Stocks had been crawling back up toward new highs last month in low volatility trading…until suddenly, a black swan arrived.
According to Investopedia, “A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.”
In the current era, a black swan can arrive by way of a simple tweet.
President Donald Trump took to Twitter to announce his administration would impose new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Friday while threatening an additional 25% levy on Chinese exports “shortly.”
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In PART I of this report we talked about and showed you the charts of the Hang Seng and DAX index charts and what is likely to unfold. In today’s report here we touch on the US markets. As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts this year, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. For example, the 2000 election of George W. Bush prompted a very mild price rotation in 1999~2000. This was likely because the transition from Clinton to Bush II was not overly contentious. The 2008 election of Barrack Obama was a moderately contested election cycle and happened at the time of the biggest credit market collapse in modern history – thus, the markets were well on their way lower 12+ months before the elections. The 2012 election cycle showed moderate price rotation as it was a highly contested election event in the US. The 2015-16 election event was highly contested as well and the price rotation near this time appears longer and deeper than the 2012 event.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
U.S. markets have had a bad week. After reaching all-time highs recently – the Dow at 26,656.39 on April 23 (not quite new high), the S&P 500 at 2,945.83 on April 30, and the Nasdaq at 8,164 on May 3 – they’ve spent the last three days in the red. Monday, the Dow shed as much as 1.8% before pulling back to close only slightly lower. On Tuesday it had bled 1.8% by the close. The Nasdaq dropped 2.2% during trading before clawing some of that back. It ended trading on Tuesday 2% down.
In fact, the Dow had its worst day yesterday since January 3.
From the sounds of it, investors are unhappy with The Donald’s China trade deal tweets on Sunday. Really, they could have chosen any issue at hand – there are so many – for a reason to correct, but a correction was due regardless… because a pause is needed before the final blow-off rally in my Dark Window scenario.
Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were gaining on Friday following a lower opening of the trading session and the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 index extended its downtrend before bouncing off and closing 0.4% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just correction within a downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.4% on Friday, after bouncing off their new lows as investors’ sentiment improved despite an ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 index retraced the whole of its April’s advance. It currently trades 2.4% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,890-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865. The support level is also at around 2,835-2,850, marked by April the 1st daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate term correction has started. Can’t tell yet, if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, May 13, 2019
How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward. We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets. As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one. The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future. Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.
This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months. The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019. At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs. The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!
Saturday, May 11, 2019
US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down. China has vowed to retaliate for the move. The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown. The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market. What next?
Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about. Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.
Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows. Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move. We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next. The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets sure feel inflectiony, at a major juncture. After achieving new all-time record highs, sentiment was euphoric heading into this week. But those latest heights could be a massive triple top that formed over 15 months. Then heavy selling erupted in recent days as the US-China trade war suddenly went hostile. The big US stocks’ just-reported Q1’19 fundamentals will help determine where markets go next.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That currently includes every stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX), which contains the biggest and best American companies. The middle of this week marked 38 days since the end of Q1, so almost all the big US stocks have reported.
The SPX is the world’s most-important stock index by far, with its components commanding a staggering collective market cap of $24.9t at the end of Q1! The vast majority of investors own the big US stocks of the SPX, as some combination of them are usually the top holdings of nearly every investment fund. That includes retirement capital, so the fortunes of the big US stocks are crucial for Americans’ overall wealth.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!
Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”. They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future. The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.
So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable. We’re here to help.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move. The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research. The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.
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