Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week. After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York. The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet. The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting. One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months. This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2019
More Wall Street Propaganda / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
One of the best examples of Wall Street’s propaganda machine at work is its willingness to dismiss recessionary signals. The inverted yield curve is a perfect example. Case in point, look at the story that was put out on Market Watch dated November 27th 2006—exactly one year before the Great Recession officially began, the stock market started its decline of more than half and the global economy started to collapse.
Here’s how some on Wall Street and the Fed described what was happening on the precipice of the global financial crisis regarding the inversion of the yield curve at that time: “Bernanke, and his predecessor Alan Greenspan, have attributed the inverted yield curve to a ‘global savings glut’ that has sparked fervid demand for Treasuries and U.S. corporate bonds. Economists have noted that this buying spree is inconsistent with the possibility of a looming recession. In the past inverted yield curves have been harbingers of recession, but a number of economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, do not think this is the case in the present instance.”
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Stock Market Bears Close to Nail-in-Coffin Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
The first week of September played out as a picture perfect breakout continuation to our upside targets. If you recall, the final week of August showcased a massive weekly bull engulf candle that basically eclipsed/retraced all the losses of the prior 3 weeks of August for the monthly closing print. This meant that the bears failed, so it’s time for the bulls to launch their counterattack and nail in the coffin of the bears.
During the first week of September, the bulls did just that as they accomplished their ‘hold half and go’ upside continuation setup on Tuesday, holding between the 38.2% and 50% standard fib retracement of the last week of August’s range with the 2889 low on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). On Wednesday night, the bulls proceeded with the decisive breakout above the 2930s-2940s resistance zone, which was the key massive resistance/supply zone of the past 3-4 weeks. The usual feedback loop squeeze setup triggered a vicious cycle of stop-outs and chasers into the 2955 and 2970 continuation targets within minutes.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
Stock Market Price Structure Still Suggests We Are Within Volatile Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This shortened holiday week has been full of crazy price rotation, political intrigue, surprise news events and, we are certain, full of headaches for some traders. Still, we managed to pull out four consistently profitable trades for our members by sticking to our proven trading systems and deploying effective position sizing techniques. Not a bad week for us at all.
Today, we are writing this research post to highlight that price is still not “out of the woods” in terms of price structure and/or price rotation. Yes, there was quite a bit of external news that drove prices higher on Thursday and Friday (BREXIT, Earnings, and China decreasing the lending rates as well as decreasing bank asset levels in an effort to prompt more lending). These news items continue to drive price action and rotation. The VIX has settled at 15.00 as of Friday – the lowest level seen since early August 2019. Our opinion is that this is just a brief pause before more chaos hits the markets.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
Stock Market Still Treading Water / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 08, 2019
US Stock Market Hasn’t Cleared The Storm Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As much as we would like to report that the US Stock market has recently cleared the future concerns of a global economic recession as well as expanded into a new growth phase, we simply can’t make that claim give the data we are seeing from our proprietary price modeling systems. Overall, this final quarter of 2019, and early into 2020, may shape up to be a very volatile period in the global markets.
Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
Recently, we posted a research post highlighting the price structure of the ES and TRAN charts that continue to suggest price weakness is still driving overall price rotation. The TRAN chart is very telling currently as it shows much more substantial price weakness in comparison to the ES, NQ, and YM charts. We believe the continued price strength is seen in the ES, NQ, and YM charts is related to the continued “Capital Shift” where foreign investors are still pouring capital into the US markets believing they are the safest and most secure investments for the future.
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Sunday, September 08, 2019
Five Feet High And Rising - Stock Market Bulls False Sense of Security / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Richard_Mills
How high's the water, mama?
Five feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Five feet high and risin'
Well, the rails are washed out north of town
We gotta head for higher ground
We can't come back till the water comes down,
Five feet high and risin'
Johnny Cash, “Five Feet High and Rising”
US stock markets on Tuesday were like a teenager forced back to school after a summer of fast cars and girls - insolent and bad-tempered. Snapping a three-day winning streak, the Dow and the S&P 500 both fell after US and Chinese tariffs took effect over the long weekend. The sell-off was also influenced by weak US manufacturing data, and more worries over the UK crashing out of the European Union, after the governing Conservative Party lost its majority in the House of Commons due to a Tory member crossing the floor to the Liberal Democrats.
The US manufacturing index for August was just 49.1, marking the first time in three years that America’s manufacturing sector shrank, stoking fears that the slowdown in Europe - Germany is already in recession - has crossed the Atlantic.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid to 1.47%, from Friday’s close of 1.50%. Two weeks ago the 2-year Treasury note was higher than the 10-year, a worrying signal that investors are less willing to risk their money on a long-term debt instrument. Known as a yield curve inversion, this phenomenon has been a near-perfect recession indicator for the past 60-odd years.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Trade War is Over - And the winner is China" writes the clueless mainstream press just prior to the announcement of new Trump trade tariffs. This is part 2 of 2 of my latest analysis on the prospects of the Chinese stock market. (Part 1 - Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets). Note the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
The Stock Market Rally is Almost Over, Next Comes the Big Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
With this morning’s breakout, stocks (blue line) have finally moved to within spitting distance of their upside target as predicted by the credit markets (black line).
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
UK Surprise Decision to Thwart a No-Deal Brexit Changes Market Dynamics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world. But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next. With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside. Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Will Fed Actions Create Dow 40,000 - And Triple Gold Prices? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into "dovish" mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.
We've been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.
History does not exactly repeat itself - but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
The Inverted Yield Curve Is Actually a Good Sign for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Robert_Ross
August 14 was the worst day of the year for stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 800 points in a single day.
The stock market plunged because of a serious economic warning sign called a yield curve inversion.
A yield curve inversion is a canary in the coal mine for the economy. It’s happened before every recession in the last 50 years.
However, there’s no reason to panic.
Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Rising US Dollar Mutes Precious Metals Moves and Puts Pressures on Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy. The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed. Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90. Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter
So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation. Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
The Reason Stocks Will Soar in the Next 20 Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Stephen_McBride
A reader asked me last week if it’s time to head for the exits.There’s a lot of fear in the markets right now. Folks are nervous. Maybe you’re nervous.
The past two weeks have been rough for the stock market. The S&P 500 recently suffered its worst day of the year. And stocks have now dipped 4% since hitting record highs in late July.
If you watch any financial TV, you’ve surely heard this blamed on a troubling economic signal triggered last week called the “inverted yield curve.”
I’ll tell you in a moment why it’s actually a good sign for stocks. But before that, let’s clarify what the inverted yield curve is… and why it matters to you.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Gerald Celente Warns “Monetary Methadone” Is Running Out, Market Crash Looms / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Gerald Celente, top trends forecaster and publisher of the Trends Journal joins me for an explosive conversation on the state of the markets, gold, the upcoming presidential election, and why he believes the next recession will be one for the ages. Gerald also reveals what you should be doing right now to prepare for it. So, don’t miss my conversation with Gerald Celente, coming up after this week’s market update.
As markets close out the month of August, precious metals investors are scoring some big summer gains. The standout performer has been silver, surging over 15% during the month.
On Thursday, the white metal spiked to nearly $18.70 an ounce before pulling back in afternoon trading. As of this Friday recording, silver prices come in $18.43, up 5.4% for the week.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
The Stock Market Is Not Looking Healthy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am often asked to provide a sample of the analysis I provide to members. So, in this week’s article regarding the stock market, I chose to reproduce the general discussion I provided within my analysis posted to members on Saturday night. Please understand that my detailed charts and the discussion of the specific smaller degree analysis is being left out from this public update, and is only available to members.
Back in the 1930s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that financial markets are fractal in nature. This means that they are variably self-similar at different degrees of trend.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.
Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Stock Market in a Holding Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Could Hong Kong Disrupt China & The Global Markets Further? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Reading the news this weekend and watching the chaos in Hong Kong, one has to wonder how this violence and disruption in commerce is really affecting the Asian and global markets. Many different news sources are already reporting that Chinese economic data continues to show weakness over the past 4 to 5+ months.
Additionally, Hong Kong, being a strategic source of income and business for the western world, has been disrupted with riots, protests and not violence as a result of a political battle between Chinese rulers and local Hong Kong residents.
It seems obvious to anyone outside of this situation that neither side is about to stop their actions any time soon and that means we are going to experience even further disruptions to the global markets and local markets. Right now, our greatest concern is that the disruption in economic activity in China/Asia will result in a “cold” in the US and other foreign markets.
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