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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Stock Market Bounce, The Suitcase Farmer / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Paul_Lamont

Last month in Panic Selling Will Lead To a Sharp Bounce , we stated: "Bearish sentiment is everywhere. Investors have finally realized what we have been discussing for the last two years. And now that we are near a temporary bottom, some investors are taking action. Unfortunately, investors are reacting to the past. They should have been in cash during the downtrend...Instead, investors should be positioning themselves for a counter trend rally: by either not selling their stocks or if they are in cash, by considering market exposure (depending on your risk tolerance)."

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Recovery Rally in S&P 500 Short SPY ETF / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The pullback in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) from 84.80 to 81.30 since Monday has coincided with the recovery rally in the ProShares Single Leveraged Short SPY (NYSE: SH) from 73.00 to 76.00, which also happens to have filled the down-gap left behind last Thursday. Classic technical behavior would argue for the SH now to decline after having filled the gap. If such a scenario unfolds, then the SH should press back into the 74.00-73.80 area, which would imply a climb towards 84.00 in the SPY concurrently. We maintain a long position in the SH in our model portfolio as a partial hedge against an implosion in our long positions.

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Sustainable Stocks Bull Market Not Likely / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Rather than relying on hope as the primary driver for making decisions, investors would be well served to focus on the fundamental and technical facts. An analysis of the facts leads us to conclude we are facing the following in terms of probable outcomes:

• Highest Probability – New lows / continuation of bear market.
• Moderate Probability – Cyclical bull – higher highs – followed by retests or new lows.
• Lowest Probability – A sustainable bull market (secular).

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Stocks Hurt by Fears of Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: PaddyPowerTrader

Stocks fell for the second straight day. The market opened heavy and traded like that all day. There was no one thing causing this, but comments from famed sages George Soros (that the rally was pretty much done) and Marc Faber (the S&P 500 could drop as much as 10% to around 750) certainly added to the fall. Energy stocks were the big losers, as oil fell below $50. Natural gas hit a 6-year low, while tech shares were also noticeably weak on economic fears hurting orders / sales. After the bell there were weak earnings from Alcoa and fertilizer maker Mosaic who may fell pressure today. Note, Asian stock markets saw an even sharper correction on big losses for Daiwa.

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

More Sharp Losses for Stock Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Harry_Boxer

The indices suffered more sharp losses today, as expected. The day started out with a large gap down. The indices moved sharply lower, tested support, bounced, and then took them out mid-day, reaching secondary support around 1270 NDX and 815 SPX. When that held for about an hour, they tried to rally and did so, but with about 10 minutes to go sold off very sharply and gave back the entire rally on the SPX, closing near the lows for the day on that index and not from it on the NDX.

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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

How to Profit from Inefficient Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: One of the single biggest fallacies foisted upon the investing public is the notion of an “efficient market.” Academics love it, which is why the “ efficient-market hypothesis ,” or EMH, as it's known, is taught at all the leading B-schools. The broadest version of this theory holds that securities prices already reflect all known information; EMH proponents believe it's impossible to outperform the markets over time - except by luck.

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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Stock Market Snaps Winning Streak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: PaddyPowerTrader

Former Deutsche bank star banking analyst Simon Mayo (now with French house Calyon) put a dampener on financials yesterday by voicing his concerns that Geithner's new plan may not offer as much hooray as the markets think. The extension of the deadline for participation in the securities side of the Geithner Plan has spooked some investors. There are also fears that private sector interest in the plan is proving less than the market originally expected, and that the extra two weeks and looser selection criteria are a desperate effort to throw the net wider. But that said, equities still managed to jog to the finish well off their worst levels.

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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Stock Market Indices Close Lower, though Pare Declines / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Harry_Boxer

The indices had a down session, but came back off the late morning session lows to pare the declines by quite a bit. The day started out with a gap down. They stair-stepped lower, then bounced around mid-morning, stabilized, and then started to rally. It was a 9-wave advance from 11:30 to the close that took the indices back up to neew highs for the session in the late 5 mintues.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Financial and Economic Crisis In Order Of Magnitude  / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Captain_Hook

In order of magnitude, it's important for those who pay attention to these things to note what is occurring in the economy and financial markets right now is of the highest degree in terms of importance (and movements), because the world's reserve currency, the US Dollar ($), is in jeopardy of losing this role , which will change everything. Why is this happening right now? Answer: In a nutshell, it's because the global trade loop the US has with China (and the rest of the world to a lesser degree) is increasingly coming unraveled as stressed US consumers purchase less manufactured products from Asia, which in turn reduces currency multiples the Chinese have been using to buy US Treasuries.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

How FAS 157 Mark-to-Market Helped Slow the Economy / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Frank_Holmes

There's been a lot of discussion of how the FAS 157 mark-to-market accounting rule may have contributed to the current deep recession. The charts below from Citi Research (using Federal Reserve data) make a pretty compelling case for the unforeseen damage caused by the strict application of FAS 157. We are among those who applaud the Financial Accounting Standards Board for taking action this week to add flexibility in how the mark-to-market rule is used going forward.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Stock Market Rebound? Or... Just Bouncing? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Paul_J_Nolte

This week has been a head scratcher. The government is dictating who should be running General Motors and gave Chrysler an ultimatum – merge or die. Home prices continue to fall, and do so at a faster rate over the past three months than over the past year (not getting “less worse”!). Unemployment (a lagging indicator) continues to deteriorate, as do the weekly jobless claims.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Stock Market Chooses to Ignore More Dire U.S. Jobs Data / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: PaddyPowerTrader

Stocks shrugged their shoulders and laughed in the face of another atrocious jobs report Friday and forged ahead Stateside. Overnight, Asia continued the firm tone despite those pesky North Koreans in the hermit kingdom firing a missile over the Sea of Japan.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Investor Sentiment: Converting Stock Market Bears To Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

As the equity markets continued their surge this past week, more bears have been converted to bulls. The number of bulls is by no means extreme, but as key resistance levels are approached, it appears that there will be fewer investors on the sidelines (i.e., new buyers) that could possibly power the market higher.

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Stock Market Counter Trend Rally Could Extend for Several Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead.

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Sunday, April 05, 2009

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Closes above Dow 8,000, Up 24% in less than 4 weeks / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article seeks to answer in part the approaching 150 emails in response to the recent stealth bull market trading analysis series. The stocks stealth bull market on Friday closed above 8,000 on BAD U.S. unemployment data, having rallied near 24% from the low of 6470, as expected the rally is STILL predominantly perceived as a Bear Market rally that contrary to some statements is still being AVOIDED by ALL but the Smart Money!

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Sunday, April 05, 2009

Stock Market Betting on a Global Economic Rebound / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Unemployment rate officially at 8.5% - The U.S. unemployment rate jumped in March to the highest level since 1983 as the economy lost 663,000 jobs, threatening to keep spending subdued for months and delay any recovery. The Department of Labor reports, “Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.”

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Sunday, April 05, 2009

Stock Market Investors Buoyed By Positive G20 Global Economy Developments / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Investors' mood benefited last week from the potentially positive implications for the global economy emanating from the London G20 meeting, and the Financial Accounting Standards Board's decision to relax mark-to-market accounting rules. And the previous week's announcement of the Geithner plan to remove toxic assets from the balance sheets of banks was also still seen as a tailwind for stock markets.

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Saturday, April 04, 2009

Stocks Bear Market and Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Tim_Wood

The primary bearish trend change that occurred on November 21, 2007 still remains intact in accordance with classical Dow theory. However, in accordance with my cycles work the March low was indeed expected and my model immediately triggered a short-term buy signal that quickly evolved to the point at which an intermediate-term buy signal was also triggered. Thus, we have a cyclical advance within the context of an ongoing primary bear market.

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Saturday, April 04, 2009

Stock Market Rally Some Room to Extend Further / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

All day long on Friday indexes labored as if in a topping process. That would have been no surprise, since my model had been saying all along that the top of this rally would be 840-850 in the SPX and 1300-1315 in the NDX. I had given up earlier this week on the indexes achieving their target, although a close call. Today it achieved its target.

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Saturday, April 04, 2009

Dow Jones the Manipulated Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: John_Mauldin

What About the Original Dow 30 Stocks?
Adding and Subtracting Value
The Original Dow 30 Components
A Few Thoughts from Richard Russell
How to Succeed at Writing
Conversations on Banks

Tonight (Saturday) some 450 people will come together in San Diego to honor Richard Russell, who has been writing the Dow Theory Letter for over 50 years. In that spirit, in today's letter we are going to look deep inside the Dow, back to its very roots. The Dow is a price-weighted index as opposed to a cap-weighted index. Does that make a difference in performance? Specifically, does it affect how the Dow has performed since it was expanded to 30 names in 1928? There are some real surprises we have found, and I think you will find this letter very interesting.

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