Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 24, 2020
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
- Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020
- QE4EVER
- As Goes January So Goes the Year
- Short-term Trend Analysis
- Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
- TRADING THE DOW
- Will Trump Win US Presidential Election 2020?
TREND ANALYSIS
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My analysis of 30th December 2019 (Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020) concluded in an overall outlook for the stock market for 2020 to target a trend towards 30,750 to 31,000 for a gain of between 8% to 9% for the year. This acts as a road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness as the Dow charts it's trend through the year.
A linear trend to 31,000 by end of 2020 would price the Dow at 28,830 today, against the last close of 29,102 which shows +272 point deviation against the linear trend, despite early January's surge to +750 that many had taken to imply 30,000 was just around the corner, instead resolving in a -600 deviation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 22, 2020
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
China's Shanghai Composite has been in a large-scale downtrend for about 13 years.
So, when the news of the coronavirus outbreak hit, it came as less of a shock to Elliott Wave International's global analysts.
You may ask, "What in the world does one have to do with the other?"
Our just-published February Global Market Perspective provides insight:
When a major infectious disease breaks out, we find that a stock market correction has usually preceded it. That observation is germane right now because China's Shanghai Composite has been tracing out a large-degree correction since its peak in 2007 and, not coincidentally, China has experienced numerous outbreaks of highly lethal infectious diseases over the 13-years-and-counting period.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a hard look at various charts and sees an impending breakdown of commodity and tech markets.
In this update we are going to review a small but important range of commodities and lead indicators that strongly suggest the seemingly endless bull market in U.S. equities is living on borrowed time and will end sooner rather than later. Given how long it has lasted and how extremely overvalued the market has become, the downturn will likely start with a crash phase.
Regardless of what the eventual impact of the coronavirus epidemic is, U.S. stock markets, in particular, seem to be in a state of denial about the actual real-world consequences of the Chinese shutdown and its impact on the global supply chain and corporate profitability everywhere, and some elements even seem to be gloating about China's misfortune and predicament, completely oblivious to the fact that this is going to have a negative impact on almost everyone.
The following points were made by a reader, and while I don't necessarily concur with all he has written, I am open to the possibility that all or much of this may be correct, and if it is, we are looking at serious problems emerging before much longer.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
FANG stocks seem uniquely positioned for some extreme rotation over the next 6+ months. The continued capital shift that has taken place over the past 5+ years has driven investment and capital into the Technology sector – much like the DOT COM rally. The euphoric rally in the late 1990s seems quite similar to today.
The biggest difference this time is that global central banks have pushed an easy-money monetary policy since just after 2000. The policies and rallies that took place after 9/11 were a result of policies put in place by George W. Bush and Alan Greenspan. Our research team believes these policies set up a process where foreign markets gorged on cheap US Dollars to expand industry and manufacturing throughout the late 1990s and most of the early 2000s. This process sets up a scenario where the US pumped US Dollars into the global markets after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and foreign markets gobbled this capital up knowing they could expand infrastructure, industry, and manufacturing, then sell these products back to the US and other markets for profits. Multiple QE attempts by the US Fed continued to fuel this capital shift.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 20, 2020
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Stocks are entering the holiday-shortened week on a strong note. There was no selloff on Friday, as has been the case three preceding weeks in a row. This weekend, there were no spooky coronavirus headlines. Stocks finished on Friday close to their yearly highs, and the beat goes on. In light of today’s premarket decline, the following question is in order. Does the beat really go on?
We’ll start the thorough examination with the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Stocks built on last weeks’ gains, and keep trading farther and farther away from the upper border of the rising purple trend channel. While weekly volume doesn’t flash any warning signs of an impending reversal, what about the other indicators?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Stock Market Potential Short-term top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.
SPX Intermediate trend:
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The financial markets continued trading in a risk-on mode last week, as China virus fears were easing and economic data was supporting Fed’s easy monetary policy. This week we will have another series of quite important economic data releases. Let’s take a look at the details.
The week behind
The corona virus fears have almost disappeared last week, as investors’ sentiment has been improving following record-breaking U.S. stock market rally. Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s Testimony from the Fed’s Jerome Powell reassured global financial markets that easy monetary policy will be continued in the future. And we highlighted it in our last week’s Market News Report. Thursday’s Consumer Price Index came in as expected, so inflation remains very low. However, Friday’s Retail Sales number wasn’t that good. And the price of gold remained within a short-term uptrend last week.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: James_Quinn
“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
As we wander through the fog of history in the making, unsure who is lying and who is telling the truth, seemingly blind to what comes next, I look to previous Fourth Turnings for a map of what might materialize during the 2nd half of this current Fourth Turning. After a tumultuous, harrowing inception to this Crisis in 2008/2009, we have been told all is well and are in the midst of an eleven-year economic expansion, with the stock market hitting all-time highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe. For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks. Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock market?
So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unlocking when the price reversion event will take place. Time-honored technical analysis techniques have set up very clear triggers that were negated by higher prices and continued upside trending. What is certain at this point is that the Capital Shift is going to continue until it stops – at some point in the future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 14, 2020
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Justin_Weinger
The spread of the coronavirus which emanated in Wuhan China has likely weighed on global growth. For weeks, nearly all transportation through out cities around China were halted. The spread of the virus appears to have stopped accelerating, while the number of cases continues to grow. Stocks around the globe have seen mixed results. The rush to safe-haven assets, has allowed US equity market to rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An almost immediate reaction to the Coronavirus outbreak in China and throughout most of the world has sent shock-wave through the global markets – particularly seen in Shipping and Oil. The actions within China to attempt to contain the virus spread include shutting down entire cities and setting up mass quarantine events. It is estimated that as many as 8+ million people were quarantined within cities in China throughout the Chinese New Year.
Chinese President, Xi Jinping, warned recently that the Coronavirus, and the efforts to stop it, may greatly reduce the Chinese economy over the next few months. The Chinese President urged top officials to refrain from “more restrictive measures” to contain the virus. It is our opinion that more restrictive measures are essential to efforts to contain the spread of this virus and that further contraction in the Chinese economy, as well as other economies, are almost set in stone at this point.
Information we’ve received from some friends living in China and Hong Kong suggest travel is very restricted, face masks are very scarce, people are staying inside their homes and surviving as family units within very close contact with one another. They are scared, trapped and unable to do anything other than try to wait this out. Imagine what this is doing to the local economies, shops, offices, and businesses?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Today from Fed Chairman Powell…
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank would fight the next economic downturn by buying large amounts of government debt to drive down long-term interest rates, a strategy that has been dubbed quantitative easing, or QE.
Of course they will. The fix is always in, isn’t it? Wouldn’t want to let a system and associated economy so far out on a brittle limb weighed down by exponential debt leverage go it on its own, now would we? Wouldn’t want anything like a naturally functioning economy because until an utter and complete crash and clean out, there can be no such thing. So more debt manipulation it is!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis. Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post. Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Quite a bit has changed in the global markets and future expectations over the past 4+ weeks. Q4 2019 ended with a bang. US/China Trade Deal, US signing the USMCA Continental Free Trade Agreement, BREXIT and now the Wuhan Virus. On top of all of that, we’ve learned that Germany and Japan have entered a technical recession. As Q4-2019 earnings continue to push the US stock market higher – what should traders expect going forward in 2020?
Volatility, Sector Rotation, and Continued US Stock Market Strength.
Our researchers have been pouring over our charts and predictive modeling tools to attempt to identify any signs of weakness or major price rotation. There are early warning signs that the US Stock Market may be setting up for a moderate downside price rotation within the first 6 months of 2020, but we believe the continued Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months will continue to drive foreign investment into the US and North American stock markets for quite a while in 2020 and 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Another interesting session for stocks and commodities and it allows me to share a day trading secret with you as well. This secret not only is a gold mine for day traders but it also helps with timing your entry and exits as a swing trader.
Today stocks opened lower and during pre-market hours it was looking really bearish, but once the 9:30 opening bell rang buyers flooded the market and drove the prices higher all session forming the typical intraday price action that happens during strong trending days.
I did a video on this year ago which I’ll share the link but take a look at today’s intraday price action, then watch this video as its a day traders DREAM – FREE MONEY!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger sees something "terrifying" in the charts for copper and long-term bonds.
One of the advantages of being a sexagenarian is that after forty years investing in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies you have a pretty good idea when something is not exactly "right." If you have lived a good, normal life and you still have decent control of over your mental faculties and bodily functions, you remember moments in time that impacted your sensibilities, not unlike your first crush on a girl, or that final exam, or an authoritarian coach's dressing-down.
However, given my chosen profession, nothing gets more indelibly etched into one's psyche than a big price "move" in something one owns. Be it a loss or a win, one can recall all the inputs that created that "move" and, sometimes elatedly and sometimes sadly, one can recall all of the ramifications and repercussion from the "move." You will, later in life, regale in the joy (or sorrow) of recounting the story of the "move" until people roll their eyes in angst upon being subjected to their ninth or tenth serving.
Of course, one of the disadvantages of being a sexagenarian is that over time, one forgets (or imbues) portions of the story, usually in favor of its historical significance or personal accolade. But, alas, that is an anecdote for another day. What I wish to discuss with you all today is that my geriatric power of recall and my olfactory rot-sensor are telling me that something is definitely not "right."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The first part of this article highlighted what we believe is the start of a broad market sector rotation setup in the US and global markets. This second part will highlight what we believe are excellent examples of sector trade setups for our friends and followers.
As China continues to pour capital into their markets to stabilize the outflow and fall of asset prices, a number of interesting components of broader sector rotation are setting up. First, the US stock market has rolled lower in what we are calling a “first-tier” of the “waterfall event”.
Additionally, Mid-Caps, Transportation, Energy, and Financials have all started to roll-over of already begun to rotate lower. We believe the contraction in economic activity and global market engagement as a result of the Wuhan virus will result in a much bigger and broader downside price move than many are expecting in the coming weeks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 10, 2020
Coronavirus Cure: Print More Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
A few days ago the market was crashing on Coronavirus fears. But recently, the market has soared back based upon the hopes of a vaccine and some better than expected economic data in the US. The ADP January employment report showed that a net 291k jobs were created, and the ISM Services Index came in at a healthy 55.5. However, a couple of good data points doesn't change the fact that US economic growth has contracted back to 2% trend growth and will absolutely become more anemic--at least in the short-term. This is because the measures needed to contain the virus are also GDP killers. I have no clue if the virus will become a pandemic or if it will fade away like the SARS and MERS viruses--without long-term economic damage. But, for the stock market to remain at record high valuations, nearly everything has to go perfectly. That is, the Fed has to keep pumping in money, and EPS growth must rebound sharply. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 10, 2020
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the long-term bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Correction over? Resuming uptrend?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...