Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, August 15, 2010
Stock Market Trending Towards October Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend.The index made an intermediate top at 1220 and is now in an intermediate downtrend which should come to an end in October 2010.
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Sunday, August 15, 2010
Central Bankers Stoking the Inflation Fires, Whilst Academic Economists Worry about Deflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
This week the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King realised that his attempts at talking inflation down have failed and that now 8 months on he is looking rather foolish by continually stating that high inflation is just temporary, where even the mainstream press that had been lapping up the mantra are now no longer taking him seriously, so now the Governor is suggesting that inflation will remain above the 2% target level for the whole of 2011 (current CPI 3.2%, RPI 5%) which translates into watch for UK CPI to go above 4% and and RPI above 6% during 2011, in line with my expectations since early May.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Stocks, Housing and Economy, Mass Delusion American Style / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one." - Charles Mackay- Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
The American public thinks they are rugged individualists, who come to conclusions based upon sound reason and a rational thought process. The truth is that the vast majority of Americans act like a herd of cattle or a horde of lemmings. Throughout history there have been many instances of mass delusion. They include the South Sea Company bubble, Mississippi Company bubble, Dutch Tulip bubble, and Salem witch trials. It appears that mass delusion has replaced baseball as the national past-time in America. In the space of the last 15 years the American public have fallen for the three whopper delusions:
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Stock Market Party on Wall Street Like Its 1929 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
On Tuesday, the Fed announced that it will reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into US Treasuries. The process is called Quantitative Easing. In theory, Q.E. increases inflation expectations so that consumers spend more and rev up the economy. That's the theory. But adding to bank reserves when the banks are already loaded to the gills, achieves nothing. It doesn't put money in the hands of people who will spend it, generate more economic activity or increase growth. It's a big zero. Oddly enough, the Fed even admits this. According to an article in Bloomberg News, "The Central Bank posted a paper co-written by Seth Carpenter, associate director of the Fed’s monetary-affairs division, finding that the “quantity of reserve balances itself is not likely to trigger a rapid increase in lending.” No "increase in lending" means no credit expansion and no rebound. Thus, QE will have no real impact.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Jakarta Stock Market Index A Leading or Misleading indicator? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Note to the reader: This article is not a treatise on technical analysis. It is an attempt to demonstrate how important it is to understand the nature and dimensions of the problems facing the world economy. The core issue has nothing to do with “money”. The core issue relates to waning supplies of energy to power transportation.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 14, 2010
No August Surprise, Just a Modern Day Jubilee Debt Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Markets were briefly in a tizzy last week because of the rumor the Obama Administration was poised to announce an August Surprise, supposedly the forgiveness of at least a portion of millions of mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for underwater homeowners. The word on the street was that this planned debt forgiveness was a thinly veiled attempt to cull votes for the November elections. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold the mortgages insured by the U.S. government and backstopped by taxpayers, loans the private sector may not have made due to the unacceptable credit risks of the borrowers. These quasi-government behemoths now hold over $5 trillion in mortgages. These mortgages are in pole position for the next leg down of the unfolding housing disaster.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Gold in a Bull Market, Stocks in a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
To me, the title is stating the obvious. To many, such talk is ridiculous. To paperbugs, Gold is a bubble about to pop and only stocks make you money over the long haul. To paperbugs, capitalizing the word "Gold" labels me a tinfoil hat wearer, while to me, capitalizing the phrase "federal reserve" (not federal and has no reserves) is blasphemy. How supremely ironic that everything the ex-American presidents Jefferson and Jackson warned of when it comes to central bankstaz has come to pass and yet their countenances grace the $2 and $20 federal reserve IOU-nothing notes.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Stock Market Has NO Bid At 1080 S&P 500... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is shocking if you think about it. Straight down 50 points. Right at critical support after four straight gap downs, and at oversold on the 60-minute charts. It still is having trouble catching a bid where it needs to hold. I still think there's a decent chance we get a small bounce up early next week, but it looks as if the market wants lower sooner than later. It is very unusual to see four straight gaps lower.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
U.S. Inflation Rises as Economy Slows, Stock Market Investors Say No Thanks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The Cost of Living rose last month...
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index was unchanged for the month.) Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Hoping the Weekend Brings Market Perspective / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
David Rosenberg is the special guest on CNBC this morning.
Sometimes I get the impression they intentionally counter-program any bullish point I bring up (we talked about Rosenberg in yesterday’s post). As I did say yesterday - fear sells and CNBC is in the business of selling fear, driven by their own fear of declining ratings (new lows in the last book) and irrelevance. I think one of the problems with CNBC is that they forget they are on television. On the right, I am SHOWING you a chart of weekly unemployment - TV is supposed to be all about showing you things but the only things they show you are gigantic talking heads and the dreaded "octo-box" where the loudest guy with the best one-liner wins (I guess).
Friday, August 13, 2010
Investors Profiting from the Quantitative Easing Threat / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
“Why the Fed will Soon Print $2 Trillion” - Barron’s Magazine Cover, August, 2010
Q.E. is a Major Threat, but one which properly positioned Investors can use for profit.
Just this past Tuesday, August 10, 2010 The Fed announced it would undertake a modest bit of Q.E. (Quantitative Easing) by using proceeds from its mortgage bond investments to buy U.S. Government Debt.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Max Keiser Report: Future Crimes, Rackets and Fraud in the Financial Sector / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert look at Tier Terra and future crimes. In the second half of the show, Max talks to former banking regulator William K. Black about rackets and fraud in the financial sector.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Stock Market Bounce but Hindenburg Crash Omen Reappears... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Friday, August 13, 2010
European Stocks Perky On News of Surging German Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks fell again Thursday, sending the S&P 500 Index to the biggest three day decline since July 1st, after an unexpected rise in unemployment claims added further ammo that the recovery is weakening. Bellwether tech stock Cisco Systems, the world’s largest maker of networking equipment, tumbled 10% after forecasting sales that missed analysts’ estimates; Juniper Networks dropped 6.8% in sympathy while Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, retreated 1% as rising jobless claims signalled a slowing economy. Elsewhere Estee Lauder shed 2.6% after profit missing estimates.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Stock Market Indices Close Well Off Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices ended lower today, but came way off their lows as a big gap down and early selling thrust ended up being the session lows. They then bounced back in a 5-wave rally that took them right back up to resistance at 1840 on the Nasdaq from a low of 1807 1/2. The S&P 500 snapped back from 1076.70 to 1086.72, about 10 points.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Deflation, Inflation, Pick a Side and Start Losing Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The financial industry, newsletter writers included, has become rife with calls for deflation or inflation. Virtually every commentator on the planet has a strong opinion on these topics and 99% of them are firmly entrenched in one camp or the other.
I want to clear this subject up because a lot of very smart people are taking very narrow-minded views of the world, and they’re spreading these views around as though they are facts. This is alright when the views are based on reality, but when someone chooses opinion over facts in the markets, then big money gets lost.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Is the NASDAQ Bearish Trend Pattern Repeating Itself? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I just finished a short video in which I discovered an eerily similar pattern in the NASDAQ. If the pattern repeats then it certainly is going to be a rough third and fourth-quarter for most investors.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Fearful Stock Market Thursday, Manic Over, Depression Sets In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The markets are clearly insane.
I diagnosed manic depression in the markets years ago but it’s been getting worse and worse to the point where we now have mood swings from week to week and sometimes even day to day. Much of this is politically driven with the Conservatives currently in overdrive - looking to "prove" that every single thing the Democratically controlled Government does is nothing short of a disaster. Nothing works, nothing will work and nothing proposed will work other than more tax cuts and "throwing the bums out" (the Democratic bums, not the Republican bums).
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Japanese Chart Pattern Could DOOM the DOW / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
"It's déjà vu all over again". Is one of Yogi Berra's famous original quotes and the same can be said for the DOW right now.
The weekly chart on the DOW is flashing the same Japanese candlestick signal that it had earlier in April of this year. Back then the DOW dropped from 11,200 to 9,700 in the space of just 10 weeks!
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Double Dip Recession Worries Send Stocks Sliding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The US FED tried to get risk markets going with their QE Light Tuesday – but it had the opposite effect Wednesday – as Treasury bond yields are lower but stock market is down 3% and risk aversion clearly higher in thin summer market conditions. US Stocks dropped the most in three weeks as equities retreated amid investor fears that the Federal Reserve’s stimulus plan indicates the anemic economic recovery is in serious jeopardy. Alcoa, Boeing and Caterpillar each shed more than 3.7% to lead losses in the Dow.
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