Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, April 18, 2011
What Slow Economic Growth and High Inflation Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: With slow economic growth and high inflation looming on the economic horizon, investors turn to earnings reports for a clue as to whether their favorite companies can handle what's ahead.
First-quarter earnings season started with a bang this week with reports from major technology, basic materials and financial companies that mostly underwhelmed the crowd. The major averages closed the week right about where they started after rallying from a sizeable dip in the middle.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stocks Don't Follow the Dollar Index So Hold On! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
So far in 2011 the equities market has made some sizable whip saw type moves that even veteran traders have had difficulty being on the right side of the price action. The year started out with equities being very overbought and extended making is virtually impossible for a low risk trader to buy on pullbacks. This was primarily due to the fact that there were no real pullbacks other than for a day or two which was immediately followed by prices continuing to grind higher.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stock Market May Require Further Consolidation Before Breaking to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend – The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a bull market. Cycles and P&F projections point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Sunday, April 17, 2011
S&P500, Crude Oil, and Gold Reliant on U.S. Dollar Price Action / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“The week that was” left many investors running for the exits on Monday and Tuesday as prices in the equity, energy, and precious metals markets plunged. The U.S. Dollar index futures tried to work their way out of a descending channel, but came up unsuccessful. The U.S. Dollar index rallied in several morning sessions, but usually was met with heavy selling later in the day which either muted gains or pushed the dollar index lower. The other notable development this week was some Fed drivel which solidified the Central Bank’s continued efforts to devalue the U.S. currency and hold short term interest rates hostage. In addition, it seems more likely with every press release from a Fed Governor that Quantitative Easing II will expire in June and Quantitative Easing III will not be pursued unless economic conditions worsen.
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Sunday, April 17, 2011
Stock Market Still In The Handle... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The question is will it stay that way. The Nasdaq has made a clear handle bottom at yesterday's gap down low reversal at 2733. The top is clear at 2815. An 82-point range which makes sense. Three percent gives the market plenty of room to drive everyone nuts. Just enough room to head fake everyone on an almost daily basis. Handles are classic for making you think one thing is happening, but it doesn't. You can be so sure about what's next only to discover you were totally wrong about your thinking process. The more you play in a handle the more you lose. Very few can do it just right. The deeper problem with handles is that you never know just how long they are going to last. There is no historical reference for how long it will drag on. It could be just a few weeks, such as we have just experienced, or it can be months, sometimes many many months. No fun for sure.
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Saturday, April 16, 2011
Stock Market Uptrend Resuming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Last week the world indices did quite well while the US struggled. This week the US held its own while the world indices were solidly in the red. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Asian indices were -1.0%, Europe dropped 1.6%, the Commodity equity group lost 3.4%, and the DJ World was -1.1%. Bonds were +1.2%, Crude lost 2.8%, Gold added 0.8% and the USD was flat.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Fed Reckoning Day Realities for Investor Pain and Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“In this light, the Fed’s action is especially meretricious. If it weren’t in such a hurry to juice the stock market and thereby keep the illusion of recovery going, it might have considered extending the regulatory sequester on bank capital for a few more quarters or even years thereby preserving a shield for the taxpayers until it has been demonstrated by the passage of time, not by the passing of phony stress tests, that the American banking system is truly out of the woods.
Friday, April 15, 2011
SPX Stock Market Correction Looms, Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Stock bull markets don’t rally higher in a nice linear fashion. Their advance is much more chaotic, flowing and ebbing. Two steps forward are inevitably followed by one step back. Today the US stock markets, despite their recent selloff in early March, still look to be in this correction mode. These ebbings present stock traders with awesome buying opportunities, the best ever seen within ongoing bulls.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
The Financial Sector Will Have a Major Impact on the SP 500 / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
Regardless of whether a compromise is reached over the approaching lockdown of the United States ceiling and the raising of the debt, this impasse has momentous significance for holders of gold (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)) and silver (iShares Silver Trust (SLV)). The serious weaknesses of our economic structure is exposing it as a paper tiger. Instead of seeking fiscal sanity, the inability of our leaders to agree on even the smallest of issues is reminiscent of the Roman Empire dealing out bread and circus to the masses when Rome could no longer afford the good times and the games.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
How Foreign Central Banks Could End the U.S. Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Shah Gilani writes: William McChesney Martin Jr., the revered former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is remembered for many things - including an unprecedented term as chairman that lasted from March 1951 to January 1970.
But Martin is perhaps best remembered for the central-banking aphorism that says that the Fed's most important job is "to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going." (See accompanying graphic below.)
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Investors Unaware of Significance of Currency Market Events, No Faith and Credit / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives." ~ Tolstoy
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Can U.S. Dollar Weakness Mean Stock Market Weakness? / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
Are there any dollar bulls left? Inflationists across the web are crying ‘victory’ as the dollar sinks and certain asset prices (especially oil prices, food prices, and the gold price) mushroom higher. To the level headed, you should exercise extreme caution against assumed fixed correlations like “weak dollar” means “asset price increases.” Correlations can quickly change.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Investing in India: First Comes the Pain, Then Come the Gains / Stock-Markets / India
Martin Hutchinson writes: As investments go, India has really great long-term prospects. No doubt about it.
Indeed, India has enjoyed very decent growth rates for the last decade, pulling many of its people out of poverty in the process.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Stock Market Both Sides Holding Where They Have To... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The bulls were rocking. Nasdaq 2808 looked to be a slam dunk in terms of breaking through. Time after time the bulls tried and time after time the bears said not now. The gap is too tough for you. The bulls finally did go away. The bears were on deck and made their move. Down we went. It was pretty hard and pretty fast. One moment we're trying to get through 2808, and the next moment you're watching the bulls trying to defend the 50-day exponential moving average at 2738 Nasdaq. A fast seventy-point reversal for sure. Suddenly it looked as if this critical support level was going to get taken out with force. Not to be the case. Not yet anyway.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Investors Keeping Capital in an Economic Depression / Stock-Markets / Investing 2011
Doug Casey, The Casey Report writes: Nothing is cheap in today’s investment world. Because of the trillions of currency units that governments all over the world have created – and are continuing to create – financial assets are grossly overpriced. Stocks, bonds, property, commodities and cash are no bargains. Meanwhile, real wages are slipping rapidly among those who are working, and a large portion of the population is unemployed or underemployed.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Stock Market Buying Opportunity? Find Out What Extreme Investor Sentiment Means / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 Ebook / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Stocks Cheap? Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio Approaching Peak Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Most of the commentary in regards to the value of stocks looks at the 1 year trailing or forward PE ratio, and applies some sort of premium or discount to that due to interest rates. Indeed with estimated earnings in the mid $90s on the S&P 500 and record low interest rates the market looks relatively 'cheap' at around 13x end of year 2011 estimates. As always please understand the market is substantially more expensive than the raw numbers show as many companies take numerous exemptions for 'one time' expenses such as options expensing - which are of course not one time.... but Wall Street still is happy to exclude these very real costs in the game of "wink wink".
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Canada: Investing in the World's Safest Economy Can Put Profits in Your Pocket / Stock-Markets / Canadian Stock Market
Martin Hutchinson writes: When a March 25 "no-confidence" vote toppled the government of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it also set the stage for a new general election.
This May 2 election will be Canada's third in five years and fourth in seven years. In light of the civil unrest in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region - not to mention the financial problems that continue to plague Europe - it would be understandable if global investors added Canada to the "do not invest" list.
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Stock Market Testing The Lower End... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
We test the high end of the range and we test the low end of the range. Back and forth with now another effort by the bears to bring things down to the lower end of the range. The bulls have tried several times to get the job done, but they have been unable to do so. Now the bears will get their chance. It would actually be good if the bears would succeed a little bit here, because it would ramp up some fear short-term and get that bull-bear spread down below 40% for starters. I don't like seeing there spread above 40%. Handles such as we're in now often serve to remove some of the froth in the market as more and more folks hear about the end of the bull market because we've stopped going up for a while. The longer we handle, or break down some, the more you'll get people thinking another bear market is upon us, which is not a bad thing for the bulls. Let's get this number down to 30%, or lower, in the coming weeks, and then I'll feel much better about things.
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