Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 25, 2024
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 25, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Equity Performance in the Presence of an Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
We have been hearing financial media pundits tells us that the stock market will continue to rise throughout 2024. One of their arguments is that we are in a presidential election year. The link between the stock market and the election cycle is simply that the incumbent party increases fiscal spending to stimulate growth and make Americans feel better about the economy, and hence the chances of the incumbent party getting re-elected. More spending is good for firm profits, and stocks rise. The Biden administration is certainly adhering to this tradition with massive fiscal spending in 2024.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Stock Market "Bullish Buzz" Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
Learn what the AIM Index reveals
Yes, there's been a recent pickup in stock market volatility, but overall, bullish sentiment remains very much alive and well.
Indeed, here's a Feb. 18 Yahoo! Finance headline:
A Bull Market is Here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 19, 2024
Friday Stock Market CRASH Following Israel Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Israeli attack on central Iranian cities and probably nuclear facilities is underway which is set to see stock prices drop Friday, a S&P break below 5060 targets 4960, and a break below 4960 targets 4800, that regardless of what comes to pass following Iran falling into the Fourth Reichs trap towards escalation towards ultimately the use of nuclealr weapons. Neverthless delivers an opportunity to accumulate target stocks as many stocks are set to enter their buying ranges such as Microsoft, TSMC, Qualcom, ASMNL, Broadcom, Lam Research and so on as per the spreedsheet.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 08, 2024
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I have been iterating since June 2020, the message one should be receiving is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, that I expected to target a return of X6 over some 7 years on where AI tech stocks stood June 2020, whilst my best guess 3.5 years ago was that we could see a major top during 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated from time to time delivering buying opps as they did during 2022 then I don't see why this should not still remain the big picture, thus the bull market that began March 2009 could continue to fulfill my original expectations for a 18 year bull market, where even the bear market that follows it will prove temporary as the bull market once more resumes during the 2030's.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 07, 2024
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Remember the start of the 2024? That opening dip in the S&P that had the likes of the holy church of the Almanach warning of the Trifecta of failures starting with the Santa Rally, then the first 5 days, with eyes next on the January baromoter, harbingers for a bad 2024 for stocks!
This was my Five Nights at Freddy's response to the headless chickens that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 03, 2024
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?
This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 02, 2024
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 02, 2024
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Not satisfied with just seasonal swings I've continued to evolve my near term seasonal swings analysis by comparing the year on year change of the past 5 years which resolves in the following recency bias pattern. Which is very similar to the above monthly seasonal analysis and only really differs to last years analysis in terms of the correction during May and June.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a brief rally into late July /. Early August before a deep correction into Mid October, resolving in a sharp reversal to end October higher, which would set the scene for a bull run into the end of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock 2021 market top, since which closely tracked the markets decline into the bear market bottom, flashing relative strength during the bull market, the only false signal was the sell off into late October. Presently is showing divergence to the S&P i.e. suggesting a downtrend is imminent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
As I write, it’s currently the 15th anniversary of the 2009 stock market low.In March '09, US stocks were trading at levels not seen since 1996. Investors had suffered more than a lost decade.
Fast-forward to today, and the S&P 500 has surged 650% off those generational lows.
It’s easy to look at the S&P’s 650% rise and scream “bubble!”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here are details of "The Great Cash-Out"
Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.
In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
The money supply continues to fall, but investors don’t seem to care. They are convinced that their success is connected to a potential Fed shift in interest rate policy. Nothing else seems to matter. That is partially attributable to the fact that, as the financial markets continue their upward trajectory, less and less attention is paid to the deteriorating economy. And, the deterioration is getting worse.
When worsening economic conditions – especially in the labor market – are pointed out, it is either not noticed or ignored. The wealthy and well-connected don’t care; and others don’t know enough to care. If stocks are up, things must be okay.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
"The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme"
When most everyone agrees on the future trend of a market, it's almost guaranteed that the market will go in the other direction -- sooner rather than later.
The reason why is that there is no one left to convince, hence, the market in question will likely have difficulty going in the predicted direction.
Read full article... Read full article...