Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast 2024 - P1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P ends 2023 at 4770, a raging bull market that has been missed by most as 2023 proved to be another year where the consensus got it badly wrong, doom and gloom, a recession was seen as being a done deal as it was for 2022, then there was the debt ceiling nothing burger, QT! What QT? We had stealth QE via the reverse repo market, and the banking crisis nothing burger, plenty of reasons why NOT to invest all the way down from the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller through to the perma fools on the CNBC cartoon network, blogosFear all convinced most to park their funds into T-bills and money market accounts.
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Sunday, January 21, 2024
S&P 500: What to Make of Fear Versus Greed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
This sentiment index combines seven indicators into one useful trend measure
That is -- market participants generally go from feeling deeply pessimistic all the way to feeling highly optimistic -- and then back again.
These swings in investor psychology tend to produce similar circumstances at corresponding points in the Elliott wave structure of the main stock market indexes.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Stock Market 2024 Rally to the MOON! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Understand this if you invested in the stock market to any significant degree during 2023 then you went AGAINST the herd because the herd (Institutions and retail investors) plowed most of their money into money market accounts having been talked into by the likes of the clowns on the CNBC cartoon network, MSM and the blogosfear. In fact it is even worse than that as Equity Funds experienced a net outflow of about $250 billion during 2023. so not only did investors not invest, they actually sold stocks. So what is going to happen when they see rates on their money market accounts drop? They are going to BUY STOCKS! Which will be NEAR ONE AND HALF YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY!
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Bank Borrowing From Fed Bailout Program Has Surged / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Is a U.S. banking crisis still bubbling under the surface?If activity in the Federal Reserve’s bank bailout program is any indication, the answer to that question is yes.
Over the last two months, the balance in the Fed Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has surged, and the pace of borrowing appears to be increasing.
Since Nov. 19, the amount of outstanding loans in the BTFP has increased by $27.3 billion. The balance in the bailout program grew by nearly $5.4 billion in just the last week.
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Financial Markets 2024 Outlook / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim Jong Un of North Korea threatens to wipe the US off the map. Meanwhile, we have the most likely Republican candidate getting thrown off state ballots under the disgusting guise of trying to preserve democracy. The US is sadly in the process of becoming a banana republic. Wars and revolutions are not a tail risk. They are happening now and are likely to metastasize in 2024.
With this backdrop, we have the most expensive stock market in history prior to 2020. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.62, and the total market cap of equities is 176% of GDP; both figures are near record highs and dwarf the historical averages prior to the pandemic. And the equity risk premium is zero. Meaning the earnings yield of stocks is less than that yield offered by simply owning a risk-free T-bill. In other words, investors are not getting compensated at all for the extra risk of owning stocks over bonds.
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Prepare for a Stock Market melt-up in 2024? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m a proud papa this morning.
I attended my daughter’s school nativity play yesterday. We practiced her lines together for the past few weeks and it was great to see her hard work pay off on stage.
All the kids aced it.
As an aside, the quality of parents is far higher these days. It’s probably because couples aren’t churning out 10 kids each anymore, so they put more effort into nurturing each one.
One of the many reasons I’m optimistic about the future.
Kids rock!
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Where Can You Find Maximum Growth for Your Investments in 2024? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Mark_Adan
If we could all predict the way our investments will perform over the course of a year, I am pretty sure we would all be very wealthy by now. Unfortunately, we can’t, so instead, we rely on advice from blogs, fund managers, financial commentators, and analysts. And, for those of us who are a little more well versed in investing, we study the markets to give us the information to help us make what we believe to be an informed decision.
2023 though has been a year where the world has encountered such turmoil that it has been hard for many to have a firm grasp on where their money should be and where it could work at its best.
Monday, January 01, 2024
S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024!
Monday, December 25, 2023
Stock Market S&P Santa Rally to the MOON! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ho Ho Ho , Merry Christmas, have you all been good boys and girls during 2023? What do you want Santa to bring you for Christmas? Pop S&P 4800+ down your chimney? New all time highs in a number of AI tech stocks to celebrate Christmas morning.... Your family will wonder why this year you are so much more full of christmas spirit!
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Fed Delivers Christmas Champagne to Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Thomas L. Hogan, Money Metals Exchange : It's Christmas on Wall Street as the long-awaited pivot is here, with Jerome Powell last week announcing the Fed's giving up on inflation and turning to that long-promised recession.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Are Stocks Turning Bearish? Opportunities in Consolidation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks sold off yesterday, but maintaining a bullish bias is still justified, and the market may have another opportunity to reach new highs. However, it’s crucial to pay close attention to the trading action, as there could be more uncertainty and volatility ahead.The S&P 500 index lost 1.47% on Wednesday, as it retraced its recent run-up following a quick profit-taking action in the middle of the day. The index reached new local high of 4,778.01 before going down to 4,700 level. The market was even closer to its Jan. 4 of 2022 all-time high level at 4,818.62 yesterday. Recently it was extending the uptrend following last week’s release of the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. In early December the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607 after resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Stocks – Is Being Bullish Still Justified? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 0.59% on Tuesday, further extending the uptrend following last week’s release of the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. The market went even closer to its Jan. 4 of 2022 all-time high level at 4,818.62 yesterday. Recently the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607 after resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.Stocks will likely open 0.2% lower today, so the S&P 500 index may trade sideways, but there’s still potential for it to reach the mentioned record high level, which was only 1.05% above yesterday’s closing price. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along its steep upward trend line as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You got access to my latest stock market brief that are usually only exclusively made available to patrons.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has certainly been an interesting year or so since we struck the low in October of 2022. If you remember, most were looking for the market to head considerably lower at the time. But, then again, what else is new? Most expect the market to continue linearly in whatever trend is in place at any point in time.
Yet, we were strongly suggesting that most investors begin to look upward, as we maintained that the market would rally to the 4300+ region from the 3500 region lows we expected before we bottomed. In fact, I was even outlining to members that the potential was in place to rally as high as 4505SPX off the 3500SPX region, even before we bottomed. And, amazingly, the market even exceeded my expectations by 100 points.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making)
NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.
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Thursday, November 23, 2023
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 entered yesterday‘s session on a corrective note, but similarly to recovering from Barkin‘s hawkish message, it did the same following FOMC minutes. Not even NVDA earnings volatility could take the ES below 4,535 – clients‘ long gains whether in swing or intraday publications, are growing – and the result really comes down to when you enter and how you work with risk along the way. Crucial question to ask – are these the circumstances favoring outsized bets, or not?
It boils down to what you think about the bond market – are we see another 10y yield rising episode?
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Are you ready to rumble! Lets see of earnings season volatility can deliver some more buying opps in target stocks over the next couple of weeks.
Where the S&P is concerned the expectation for an early October bottom at just below 4200 was freakily ac hived in terms of price and time and as my market brief illustrated going into October.
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SP500 Trend Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SPX Bounce Underway, but Resistance Upcoming / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
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