Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 Dec 15, 2024 - 11:19 AM GMT

Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!

I am always more positioned towards accumulating than distributing because I understand that the risks are the UPSIDE! Especially in AI tech stocks, but even I can make mistakes such as selling out of Nvidia for 3X profit at around $40, what did Nvidia do it 3x'd again! Of course I was not sat twiddling my thumbs as I continued to hold large positions in other target stocks such as META. Look at the 2022 bear market, what would have happened if one sold NOTHING going into and during it, yes it would have been painful and mentally draining with all that doom and gloom and little one could do other than make the mistake of SELLING! Which is why one of my primary rules is to never sell at a loss, stops one from doing something stoopid like selling out of META at $100 as some patrons were asking if they should do at the time. Nevertheless if you had held on for dear life you would have many multiples of the price you paid even towards the end of the the 2021 bull market!

So do not fear falling prices, even bear markets, the pain of which can be countered by maintaining a healthy cash balance so as to capitalise on such events that is fed by trimming whenever stocks fomo so no matter how many dips one buys one never runs out of money to buy the next dip as bear markets are just temporary draw downs that folk with hindsight look back on and wish they had bought the likes of Nvidia at anywhere near $20 whilst at the time $20 would have suffered a 50% draw down! Which is why I was stating throughout 2022 that investors no matter at what price they buy have to be mentally prepared for a 50% draw down because such draw downs are NORMAL for virtually EVERY STOCK! So just get the job done and thank me in a few years time.

Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks

That would be during Sept to October of the 2nd year of the presidential cycle i.e. last time was during Sept to Oct 2022, don't be under any illusions by looking at the stock charts and imagining that you could have bought back then because at the time it was total carnage, blood on the streets, even Tom Lee had egg all over his face as his call for a strong 2022 went up in smoke. There was much pain for those patrons who followed me into the depths of bear market hell lows as there was maximum uncertainty, fear and doubt and all I promised was more pain as I repeated my mantra of bear markets are for getting the job done!. Draw downs are the price one pays to gain exposure to target stocks at rock bottom prices, how else can one buy Nvidia for as low as $10 bucks a share if not due to the fact that everyone was vomit selling out of Nvidia dropping down to $10 bucks! Those who thought they bought cheap at $20 were sat with a 50% draw down, everyone was sat on deep draw downs, from memory I think my average was around $16, so my draw down by $10 was 38%! That was a big draw down at the time and similar across the spectrum of AI Tech stocks, so don't imagine for a minute looking at the stock chart in hindsight that you could have would have should have because you likely would not have cos if you did you would have had at least a 40% draw down! "But Nadeem I would have bought at $10", no you wouldn't at the time at $10 folk were commenting that they were going to wait for Nvidia to fall to $7.5, even $5 before buying (remember I am using post split pricing so $10 was $100 then).

What about those who never got bloodied, well they NEVER BOUGHT! Remained sat on the sidelines waiting for their perfect bottom price of S&P 3200, as the bear market bottom whisked past, and from then on it was the mantra of a bear market rally that would soon end at 3600, 3700, 3800, 3900, 4000, 4100, 4200, 4300, at 4350 ENOUGH ALREADY! You are NOT going to bloody see S&P 3500 again! You blew the bottom and now are blowing being invested in the bull market prompting me in June 2023 for folk to stick S&P 7000 before the end of 2025 on a post it note and look at it every time they felt like vomiting out of their positions in the wake of the latest nothing burger because 7k is where the S&P was heading towards, also sending the message out Mid June 2023 to all patrons.

We are in a BULL MARKET that will run for several years. I commented a few weeks ago to stick 'S&P 7000 before end of 2025' on a post it note to get folks focused on the big picture rather than S&P 4500 vs 4100 nothing burgers.

Here we stand October 2024 S&P trading at 5740, precisely at the half way mark both in terms of price and time to 7000! I am sure I said something similar at 3500, i.e. X2 to 7000, but would need to check.

Sometimes folk need to not think too much and just keep it simple.

KEEP that post it note in sight - Choo Choo !

So 2025 looks set to make my S&P 7000 target as of June 2023 become manifest! Though I am sure I will have stated earlier still that I expected S&P to x2 off the 3500 low to 7000 given that the first year of the bull market was accompanied by much doubt and fear, i,e, Feb 2023 Google at $80 was FINISHED, killed off by Chat GPT, should we sell and buy something else were the comments at the time? My response, It's upto you to decide what to do with youth money all I can do is show you what I am doing which is to buy more Google, well 18 months on it's trading at $175. just illustrates when stocks are cheap instead of adding more the automatic response of most investors is to want to SELL ALL!

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that was first made available to patrons who support my work - Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

CONTENTS

Presidential Election Year Seasonal Trend
What Does a Strong September Mean for the Stock Market?
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market
2025 Mid Decade Year
The Risks are to the Upside!
Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
LRCX Stock Split
META $596
Nvidia 5X to 30X
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER?
Never Buy an IPO
STOP LOSSES
CHINA Stocks Short Squeeze
Bubble Drivers
Fourth Reich Carving out an Empire Out of the Corpse of the US Empire
Why the US Empire Would Lose In a War Against Iran
Bitcoin Counting Down To Pump to New All Time Highs!
MSTR No Brainer
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY REVISITED
STOCKS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
CAPTALISNG ON THE NEXT BEAR MARKET

For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups in the New Year. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most Recent Analysis - Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks $100k Barrier

CONTENTS
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets
Fed December Rate Cut
Stocks Bubble 2025
S&P Big Picture Road Map
Moores Law is NOT Dead, it is ACCELERATING!
AI Stocks Investing Perception
Stocks Portfolio
DOCU - What it Means to Never Sell At a Loss
Riding the AMD Gravy Train
Learn to Be the Man In the Middle
BTC $100k Milestone Achieved
Bitcoin Forgives You!
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
Bitcoin - How the Bull Market Could End
Bitcoin Dominance Drop Triggers Alt Season
CRYPTO MARKET CAPS
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY
COINBASE
MSTR Blow Off Top
MSTR Spectrum
Micro Strategy Ponzi
Trump Ukraine Victory Incoming
Canada Living on Borrowed Time
Hacking Ageing With Supplements
Next Analysis VOTE

Recent analysis includes -

Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump

Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season

Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump!

Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

And access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series.

Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023

Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3

The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH

Here's what you get access to for just $7 per month -

※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on this page and I will also send a short message in case the extensive email does not make it to your inbox.

※Access to my carefully constructed and maintained AI Tech Stocks Portfolio that is updated on an ongoing basis, that includes on going commentary and a comprehensive spreadsheet that features unique innovations such as the remarkably useful EGF's.

※A concise to the point Investing Guide that explains my key strategies and rules

※ Regular content on How to Trade & Invest incorporated into most articles so as to keep patrons eyes on the big picture and net get too sucked into the noise of price swings.

※ Access to my comprehensive How to Really Get Rich series of articles, clear concise steps that I will seek to update annually and may also eventually form a Patrons only ebook.

※ Access to conclusions from my ongoing market studies from a total of over 200 conducted studies over the decades. updated whenever the market poses a question to be answered. Also enjoy the fruits of R&D into machine learning such as the CI18 Crash indicator that correctly called both the pandemic crash (Feb 2020) and the 2022 bear market (Dec 2021) well before the fact.

※Join our community where I reply to comments and engage with patrons in discussions.

※ I will also keep my Patrons informed of what I am currently working on each month.

※ Influence over my analysis schedule.

My objective is to provide on average 2 pieces of in-depth analysis per month and regular interim pieces of analysis as market briefs. So over a 12 month period expect to receive at least 24 pieces of in-depth analysis. Though my focus is on providing quality over quantity as you can see from the extent and depth of my analysis which I deem necessary so as to arrive at that which is the most probable market outcome.

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.