What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Dec 13, 2024 - 08:40 AM GMT

September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -

1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.

2, That during a bull market the risks are to the UPSIDE.

Nevertheless an UP September allows one to see what this now implies for the stock market over the coming months and year.

There is a 81% to 87% chance of an Up Q4 with an average gain of 2.5% which from 5762 implies 5900 with probability slightly stronger for Nov to Dec which implies to buy the October dips, Whilst an UP October is basically a coin flip ay 63%.

For the 7 best month pattern from 1st Oct to 30th April has an 88% to 93% probability for a strong bull run with an average gain of 4.5% to 5% which from 5762 implies S&P 6050. Whilst only a marginal advantage to buying 1st Nov vs 1st Oct though again this does not account for intra month volatility.

Whilst for the full 12 months there is a 94% to 100% probability for an higher S&P with an average gain of 5.1% to 6.75% implying 6150.

Bottom line folk should seek to be invested for the bull run into April 2025, and likely continue on into September 2025 so expectations are for a bullish Q4 and 2025, with the S&P targeting a trend to above 6000 early 2025 and likely to continue trending higher during the year which means I will definitely be continuing buying any dips in target stocks during a probable volatile October.

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that was first made available to patrons who support my work - Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

CONTENTS

Presidential Election Year Seasonal Trend
What Does a Strong September Mean for the Stock Market?
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market
2025 Mid Decade Year
The Risks are to the Upside!
Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
LRCX Stock Split
META $596
Nvidia 5X to 30X
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER?
Never Buy an IPO
STOP LOSSES
CHINA Stocks Short Squeeze
Bubble Drivers
Fourth Reich Carving out an Empire Out of the Corpse of the US Empire
Why the US Empire Would Lose In a War Against Iran
Bitcoin Counting Down To Pump to New All Time Highs!
MSTR No Brainer
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY REVISITED
STOCKS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
CAPTALISNG ON THE NEXT BEAR MARKET

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Most Recent Analysis - Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks $100k Barrier

CONTENTS
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets
Fed December Rate Cut
Stocks Bubble 2025
S&P Big Picture Road Map
Moores Law is NOT Dead, it is ACCELERATING!
AI Stocks Investing Perception
Stocks Portfolio
DOCU - What it Means to Never Sell At a Loss
Riding the AMD Gravy Train
Learn to Be the Man In the Middle
BTC $100k Milestone Achieved
Bitcoin Forgives You!
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
Bitcoin - How the Bull Market Could End
Bitcoin Dominance Drop Triggers Alt Season
CRYPTO MARKET CAPS
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY
COINBASE
MSTR Blow Off Top
MSTR Spectrum
Micro Strategy Ponzi
Trump Ukraine Victory Incoming
Canada Living on Borrowed Time
Hacking Ageing With Supplements
Next Analysis VOTE

Recent analysis includes -

Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump

Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season

Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump!

Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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