Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Dec 13, 2024 - 08:43 AM GMT

Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.

The AVERAGES data suggests a Democrat president will deliver a stronger stock market performance than Republican for the first year of their new term, likely near twice that of a Republican president, with the mid-terms particularly bad for Republicans.

A Republican or Democrat is not going to make much difference to stocks for 2025 that looks set to be another very bullish year, likely to see a gain of between +20% and +30%, which if the S&P ends 2024 at 6000 implies a target of 7200 to 7800 by the end of 2025.

Whilst 2026 (mid-term) and 2027 look set to be when the stock market hits a brick wall, but you've already known this from my big picture narrative as of Mid 2020 of the coming Quantum AI bubble mania blow off top that rolls over into a bear market that I suspect will be well under underway by early 2027.

However, here is where most analysts tend to go wrong, AVERAGES, this is an average which tend to be misleading when conducting such analysis as the following illustrates of what actually happened following the past 8 elections.

Which is why in my last article I looked at the individual charts of the past 3 election cycles individually rather than the AVERAGE.

Now don't get carried away with the presidential cycle as it is just ONE metric, presidential cycle, global liquidity cycle, debt cycle, inflation cycle, business cycle, margin debt cycle, US wars cycle and so on.... one can do similar exercises with each and I do so keep things in context, yes presidential election cycles are very useful tools but only as part of a whole landscape of analysis as what happened during both of Bush's Presidency illustrated when one would need to understand that things are NOT going to play out as the Presidential cycle suggested it should, so useful as part of ones tool kit.

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that was first made available to patrons who support my work - Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

CONTENTS

Presidential Election Year Seasonal Trend
What Does a Strong September Mean for the Stock Market?
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market
2025 Mid Decade Year
The Risks are to the Upside!
Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
LRCX Stock Split
META $596
Nvidia 5X to 30X
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER?
Never Buy an IPO
STOP LOSSES
CHINA Stocks Short Squeeze
Bubble Drivers
Fourth Reich Carving out an Empire Out of the Corpse of the US Empire
Why the US Empire Would Lose In a War Against Iran
Bitcoin Counting Down To Pump to New All Time Highs!
MSTR No Brainer
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY REVISITED
STOCKS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
CAPTALISNG ON THE NEXT BEAR MARKET

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Most Recent Analysis - Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks $100k Barrier

CONTENTS
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets
Fed December Rate Cut
Stocks Bubble 2025
S&P Big Picture Road Map
Moores Law is NOT Dead, it is ACCELERATING!
AI Stocks Investing Perception
Stocks Portfolio
DOCU - What it Means to Never Sell At a Loss
Riding the AMD Gravy Train
Learn to Be the Man In the Middle
BTC $100k Milestone Achieved
Bitcoin Forgives You!
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
Bitcoin - How the Bull Market Could End
Bitcoin Dominance Drop Triggers Alt Season
CRYPTO MARKET CAPS
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY
COINBASE
MSTR Blow Off Top
MSTR Spectrum
Micro Strategy Ponzi
Trump Ukraine Victory Incoming
Canada Living on Borrowed Time
Hacking Ageing With Supplements
Next Analysis VOTE

Recent analysis includes -

Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump

Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season

Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump!

Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

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The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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