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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2024

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the comments I receive is that the Reverse Repo liquidity pool getting drained,, won't that mean that the stock market then hits a brick wall?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 23, 2024

S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Submissions

 The S&P 500 index of large cap U.S. stocks has rallied +49% since the October 2022 lows, and +28% since the most recent October 2023 lows.  Bulls argue that the equity rally has much more time to run. Typical bull markets last about 5 years. If we consider the January to October 2023 correction to have been a significant bear market that reset the excesses from the prior bull market, then the bull market longevity argument makes senses. Recall that the S&P 500 fell -26% from January to October 2023 following the post-Covid “bull market”, resulting in +108% equity gains.  On the other hand, if we argue the bearish case, Covid distortions likely mean that the typical lengths (and magnitudes) of the bull and bear phases can’t be applied today. Bears could argue that the 2022 correction/bear market represented a mid-cycle correction or just a cooling of the excessive movement from April 2000 to December 2021. In any case, whether this is year 4 of a bull market that begin in 2020 or year 2 of a bull market that begin in 2022 would seem to have little predictive power of how much longer equities will rally, assuming again that Covid distortions will skew historical trends.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Folk ask when will the S&P index correct? This is the problem when investors stare at the S&P they MISS the corrections in key target stocks! Google fell to $130. down 15% from it's high as I pointed out at the time as I accumulated more that it would likely soon reverse higher to target $160+, and then there is TESLA that traded down to a DEEP 47% deviation from it's $299 bull market high, with a dozen more opps to accumulate into, the likes of Redfin, Flex, Apple, ALB, BHP, CCJ, DIODE, GFS, Baidu, BDEV, Corsair, Unity and so on all whilst most remained focus on the S&O.... I keep saying to forget about the indices and focus on the individual target stocks but folk keep making the same mistake of waiting for the S&P to move before they decide to act. The S&P is just a cap weighted average, it does not reflect what most target stocks are doing and thus opps to buy and sell get missed by staring at the S&P nothing burger. The S&P should be treated as a stand alone market to trade or invest in..

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: EWI

"How High Can Markets Go?" -- asks this magazine cover

Paul Montgomery's Magazine Cover Indicator postulates that by the time a financial asset makes it to the cover of a well-known news weekly, the existing trend has been going on for so long that it's getting close to a reversal.

A classic case in point is this Time magazine cover from June 13, 2005:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2024

S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 25, 2024

US Presidential Election Year Equity Performance in the Presence of an Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Submissions

We have been hearing financial media pundits tells us that the stock market will continue to rise throughout 2024. One of their arguments is that we are in a presidential election year. The link between the stock market and the election cycle is simply that the incumbent party increases fiscal spending to stimulate growth and make Americans feel better about the economy, and hence the chances of the incumbent party getting re-elected. More spending is good for firm profits, and stocks rise. The Biden administration is certainly adhering to this tradition with massive fiscal spending in 2024.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Remember the start of the 2024? That opening dip in the S&P that had the likes of the holy church of the Almanach warning of the Trifecta of failures starting with the Santa Rally, then the first 5 days, with eyes next on the January baromoter, harbingers for a bad 2024 for stocks!

This was my Five Nights at Freddy's response to the headless chickens that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?

This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 25, 2024

Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock 2021 market top, since which closely tracked the markets decline into the bear market bottom, flashing relative strength during the bull market, the only false signal was the sell off into late October. Presently is showing divergence to the S&P i.e. suggesting a downtrend is imminent.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Stephen_McBride

As I write, it’s currently the 15th anniversary of the 2009 stock market low.

In March '09, US stocks were trading at levels not seen since 1996. Investors had suffered more than a lost decade.

Fast-forward to today, and the S&P 500 has surged 650% off those generational lows.

It’s easy to look at the S&P’s 650% rise and scream “bubble!”
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: EWI

Here are details of "The Great Cash-Out"

Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.

In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 09, 2024

Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: EWI


"The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme"

When most everyone agrees on the future trend of a market, it's almost guaranteed that the market will go in the other direction -- sooner rather than later.

The reason why is that there is no one left to convince, hence, the market in question will likely have difficulty going in the predicted direction.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 01, 2024

INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The crypto bull market is under way! For just $5 bucks you could have accumulated Bitcoin at $27k instead of at the current price of $62k. Still not to late to captialise on the great crypto bull market of 2024! Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 01, 2024

Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield curve now inverted for 21 months so where's the recession? An inverted yield curve is supposed to predict an recession, however as I pointed out months ago for why I was accumulating long-bonds is that the US Treasury NEEDS LOWER long-term interest rates for it's flood of debt issuance during 2024, it does not want to pay 5% interest on this debt that continues to inflate the debt interest spiral. So the Fed will engineer LOWER long term yields whilst maintaining higher short-term rates so as to continue to suppress INFLATION! Which is what has come to pass, long rates are now 1% lower whilst the Fed fund rate remains at 5.25%.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 07, 2024

US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Firstly my latest video explaining how I accumulate and distribute (Trim) stock positions to maximise profits

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