Friday, June 07, 2019

The Risky Stocks Big Lie That Keeps Many Investors Poor / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Stephen_McBride

Today we’ll bust a big lie about investing.

This big lie keeps many investors down. Belief in it is a tall hurdle to building wealth.

How many times have you heard a statement like this?

“The only way to make big profits is to take big risks.”

This is the conventional wisdom. It gets repeated in classrooms, on TV, and by stockbrokers over... and over... and over again.

The problem is, it’s complete nonsense.

Friday, June 07, 2019

Gold and HUI Short-term Strength Is a Strong Call to Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

One surprising news was followed by another surprising news. First, Trump told the world about his plan to keep increasing tariffs on Mexico, defying his own party. Then, no hint of relief had come regarding the China trade dispute. Finally, we have got the Fed discussing potential interest rate cuts. Investors have aggressively increased their bets on such monetary policy easing. Gold definitely welcomed that idea. Is its breakout to new 2019 highs inevitable?

It's not a sure bet, but a move to these highs just became more likely. Are the above-mentioned changes in investors’ expectations well founded? Not necessarily.

Typically, gold prices are believed to be inversely related to the interest rates. As a result, the interest rate cut should be positive for the gold prices. However, the cut in the federal funds rate by September is widely expected by the markets, so it should be already priced in. Hence, a lot of will depend on the signal sent by the Fed about the future stance of the monetary policy accompanying that move. But, frankly speaking, we do not see why the Fed should cut the interest rates by September. Unless we see a recession, the cut remains unlikely. The Fed should telegraph it earlier, but so far it only announced a pause in the tightening cycle, not its end. The wait-and-see mode does not necessarily imply a cut later in the future. In 2016, the Fed also paused for a year its tightening (from December 2015 to December 2016), but it did not cut the federal funds rate, it did not reverse the tightening move from the end of 2015.

Friday, June 07, 2019

Fear Drives Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again.  We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months as the expected downside price move takes place.  We understand this concern by many industry professionals and share some of their same concerns, yet we believe these individual are far too early in shifting their stance in the markets right now.

As you may be aware, our research does not show any major downside risks until later in July 2019 or August 2019.  Even then, the price of the Dow Jones Index would have to fall over 18% before the December 2018 lows become threatened.  The current upside price recovery, with the Dow Jones up over 400 pts from the lows on Monday, June 3, suggests the US market and the Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months is still rather strong with investor buying dips. We told our followers this bounce was about to happen the day before it bottomed here.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betting Markets / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

The Emerging Threat of Ferocious Agflation / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: MoneyMetals

Most Americans take food abundance for granted. Grocery store shelves are always stocked, and America’s agricultural sector always grows more than enough corn, wheat, and soybean crops to keep the food production system humming along smoothly.

That all could change as abruptly as the weather. In fact, historically wet conditions throughout the Midwest have put this year’s spring planting in jeopardy.

As reported by Minnesota Public Radio, “Corn is being planted at the slowest pace ever, while soybean seeding is the slowest since 1996. And with the start of June looming, many farmers are facing a tough choice — do they even try to get crops in the ground at all?”

Thursday, June 06, 2019

4 Momentum Technology, Biotech and Mining Stocks to Watch / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: Harry_Boxer

These four stocks in the high-momentum technology, biotech and mining areas are on the move.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) leapt $1.99 to $29.57 on 107 million shares Tuesday. On Monday the chipmaker announced a deal to license its custom graphics intellectual property (IP) to Samsung for use in mobile devices. The stock has broken out of a 2-month sideways channel, and any move across the $29.75 range could get this into the mid-$30's.

Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (KL) gained $1.31 to $37.69 on 2.7 million shares Tuesday on no news from the gold mining company. The stock is in a beautiful long-term up-channel from the $5 range in January 2017. After a 3-month sideways formation, the stock has rallied in recent sessions, with Tuesday's move taking out resistance from the Feb 28 high at $36.74. Watch for the mid-$40's next.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Gold and Silver Vindication... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses geopolitical events and movements in the precious metals markets. Hallelujah!

It was only a week ago that I was opining that there was nothing ominous in the technical picture for gold and silver that was altering my bullish stance; RSI and MACD were trending up and price was stubbornly refusing to yield to the myriad of bullion bank attacks mission-driven to force a crack of the critical $1,260.90 50-dma level so widely discussed in past weeks. As I show in the chart posted below, the first major up-gap in gold pricing occurred in the days back in October after the ratings agencies decided to "downgrade" the bonds of GE, a company that is now being seen as serially deficient in its reporting practices and masterfully adept at avoiding the long arm of SEC "law" (that's a joke ��) while using the stock price performance to advance book deals for the two rock star CEOs of the '90s and early 00s, Jack Welch and Jeff Immelt.

I actually wrote about GE back in 2005 after listening to a promotional video on the "unparalleled brilliance" of GE Financial whose use of leverage was deemed "second to none." Immelt was regurgitating the company line of "Growth without Regret" that Welch was spewing all through the mid-to-late-1990s with the objective being not an advancement in the "E" part of the price-to-earnings-ratio but rather a simple advancement in the "R," which does not (and most certainly DID NOT) involve any real growth whatsoever. All that Welch and Immelt cared about was the stock price; Welch was obsessed with advancing it while Immelt was obsessed with defending it. In the end, they have both faded off into the sunset and are rarely seen on CNBC anymore while long-term GE shareholders are now seriously underwater and searching for answers as to why-oh-why their retirement nest eggs went into the tank.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Torrid Advances in Gold ETFs Stocks Warrant Caution / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Michael Ballanger explains how he is reacting to the advances in the gold ETFs. Given the torrid advance in gold (GLD [SPDR Gold Shares]) and the leveraged miner ETFs (NUGT [Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]/JNUG [Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x]), it is of note that RSI readings have screamed northward to the point where I don't think I can recall a shift in momentum quite this quickly or with such torque. Now, it doesn't automatically follow that these ETFs are going to crash. In fact, long after RSI readings topped out in February 2016, NUGT and JNUG continued to make new highs for the move. However, today's set-ups appear to be similar to 2016 so caution is warranted in both exiting too soon and staying too late, so how I deal with that is to take down a portion of the risk and that is precisely what we did yesterday.

GLD is somewhat more overbought than the miners so having pitched 50% of the June $120 calls yesterday (@ $5 plus), I am jettisoning the rest in order to leg out to the September calls at some point in the future. The preferable entry point will be in late June or early July or if the RSI numbers can get back to around 30 and preferably the 20s so as to reflect an oversold condition rather than the current overbought condition we have today.

Thursday, June 06, 2019

Trump Is Making the Same Trade Mistake That Started the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

We all wonder if Trump’s trade actions are as random as they appear or if there is a broader strategy.

Some of my contacts argue that the relatively strong US economy allows the administration to take a harder line than would normally be advisable.

The thinking is that we can ride out a trade war better than China can.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

US Inflation and House Prices Trend Forecast / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Official US CPI inflation remains marginally below the Fed's 2% target at 1.9%. Generally where house prices are concerned the higher the inflation rate the better as long as the economy is growing. Nothing much screams out from this chart other than at 2% inflation on balance is supportive of house prices.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Gold Monetary Base Ratio Show Closer To A Significant Monetary Event / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how we could be close to major financial/monetary crisis. The following chart that shows the ratio of gold to the monetary base was used:

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Recession Probabilities Continue to Increase: What’s Next for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market rallied above its 200 day moving average today along with Fed-related news. Today’s headlines:

1. The New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model continues to increase
2. Today’s spike saw relatively low volume
3. Stocks spiked, but VIX didn’t fall significantly today
4. 30 year – 2 year Treasury yield is steepening
5. PMI and the S&P are both falling
6. Zahorchak Method isn’t falling

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.

Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Enjoy The Stock Market Bounce… In Two Weeks Things Get Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks bounced yesterday because:

1)    They were oversold.

2)    The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).

3)    Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”

4)    Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Warning… Sub-Prime 2.0 Is About to Blow Up / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Graham_Summers

For those how pay attention, the Fed has already broadcast what the next crisis will be…

Corporate bonds…

When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008… and held them there for even years straight… it gave the “green light” to corporations to go on massive borrowing spree.

After all… if you’re the CEO of a company… and taking on debt suddenly costs NOTHING… why wouldn’t you start borrowing?

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

US Yield Curve Inverted Again. Will Gold Shine Now? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. yield curve has inverted again, and it has done so to the widest level since 2007. How much of a reason to worry is that actually? A sky-is-falling moment lurking ahead? If so, what chance of saving us does gold have?

Another Yield Curve Inversion Occurs

It’s really getting more serious. Another yield curve inversion… And a much deeper one – that’s frightening!

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Stock Market Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger.  Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance.  In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs.  Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted.  In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again.  At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows.  Guess what happened?  The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Gap Between Average two and five-year Fixed Rate Mortgages at 7 year low / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Latest analysis by Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the difference between the average two-year and five-year fixed mortgage rate has narrowed by 0.06% from 0.42% to 0.36% since the beginning of the year, seeing it stand at the lowest difference recorded in seven years as a result. The average two-year fixed rate has fallen by 0.03% from 2.52% in January 2019 to 2.49% this month, while the average five-year fixed rate decreased by 0.09% from 2.94% to 2.85% over the same period.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks.  Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend.  This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough.  The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.

We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past.  We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history.  These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Recession Is a Psychological Thing: It Will Happen When We Say It Happens / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Jared_Dillian

We haven’t had a recession in a while in the United States.

The last one was pretty bad, so it stands to reason we might want to avoid a repeat of that experience.

President Trump is working very hard to ensure that we do not have a recession (at least until the 2020 election). The Fed no longer seems to believe that inflation is the greater risk. We are basically running the economy at full speed all the time.

It is hard to have a recession when monetary and fiscal policy have buried the needle.