Saturday, August 17, 2024

Gold Prices: The calm before a record run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: EWI

The basis for analysis and forecasting at Elliott Wave International is fundamentally different from everyone else’s.

Here's a prime example in gold.

This excerpt is from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, when gold was trading below $2,050/oz.

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners just reported their best quarterly results ever!  Record gold prices combined with lower mining costs catapulted unit earnings to dazzling new records.  Yet despite exploding profitability, gold stocks continue to lag gold’s mighty upleg.  This anomaly won’t last, as investors increasingly realize how seriously undervalued this sector remains.  The resulting capital inflows will drive gold stocks way higher.

The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark.  Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead.  Its $14.0b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 25x!  GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Those two largest categories account for nearly 4/7ths of GDX.

Saturday, August 17, 2024

AI Computers Hype / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Lots of hype in the media about AI computers such as which Microsoft announced. Only problem is there is no compelling reason to upgrade to an AI computer, what are you going to do with it?

Friday, August 16, 2024

Is Stocks Rally Showing Signs of Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks further accelerated their uptrend yesterday, with the S&P 500 index closing 1.61% and reaching new local highs above the 5,500 level. The market has retraced almost all of its declines from the August 1 local high of 5,566.16. The rebound surprised a majority of traders and the question is: Will the market go straight to new highs, or will it reverse at some point and retrace the rally? For now, there have been no confirmed negative signals; however, this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.6% lower, as indicated by futures contracts.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Current state of portfolio is 79.4% invested, 20.6% cash, though 9.76% is in crypto's which is meant to be temporary, i.e. I plan to exit virtually all of my crypto positions during the crypto bull market where the key risk is that it ends a lot earlier than expected, so effective percent invested in stocks is 70%.

All of the primaries and secondaries have delivered huge profits except Tesla and Apple. Even crappy IBM has delivered on its spike to $200 prompting heavy trimming, the big surprise was Micron, I was not expecting $130+! As for sleepers, Samsung has also delivered whilst Intel continues to snooze. All whilst most investors have a large chunk of cash parked in money market accounts because they listened to clown Cramer and the CNBC cartoon network so they are missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history, what else can you call Nvidia 10xing in 18 months!

Thursday, August 15, 2024

We got the Stock Market Selloff — Now what? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Submissions

Editor’s note: Today, RiskHedge Executive Editor Chris Reilly sits down with Stephen McBride to discuss the recent market selloff and what investors should expect leading up to the US presidential election...
***
Chris Reilly: Stephen, we got the selloff you’ve been anticipating.

Here’s your warning from June:

Markets aren’t usually this easy or consistent. And remember, in an average year, the S&P 500 suffers a decline of 14%. My guess is we’ll get a correction in that ballpark sometime before November’s election.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

BRICS, Inflation, Turmoil, and CDBC – What to DO? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: Andy_Sutton

Our column last week prompted so many questions from new readers that we decided to start from scratch. Long-time readers will recognize much of what we’re about to say, but we ask that you take the time regardless since we’re adding in valuable context that has been provided over time. Just looking at the world today, your first thought might be: crazy! However, compared with even a few years ago, things are much clearer. So, without further ado…

Thursday, August 15, 2024

How Gold Can Save the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Can we save the dollar before central banking kills it?

Our deficits are now stuck at 8% of GDP — unprecedented in peacetime. And our national debt just hit $35 trillion — unprecedented in the history of man.

Even the central bankers realize that this isn't sustainable. That we are coming to the day our paper money utopia crumbles.

Historically, from Song Dynasty China to Weimar Germany, when paper dies we return to hard money. Because backing the dollar with hard money like gold -- and eventually Bitcoin -- is the only way to finally kill the money printer.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

What's So Great About 2 Percent Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Don’t be fooled when you hear “inflation is coming down.” That's not the plan and it never was.

The fact is price inflation was up in July.

And it will be up in August.

And it will be up in September.

That’s because rising price inflation is the Federal Reserve’s stated policy.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply Vs House Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This graph shows the US stock market total market cap divided by M2 money supply as a measure of relative valuations which shows stocks in October 2022 were just as cheap as they were during the depths of the 2000 pandemic crash, remember October 2022? When most feared much lower prices and thus failed to buy when stocks were cheap, as is usually the case at every market bottom!

Also whilst stocks are nowhere at the bubble territory of the dot com bubble they are definitely not cheap hence why I am currently approx 70% invested in stocks after taking off the 10% invested in cyclical crypto's that I will probably completely disinvest from over the next 12 months.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Are we Slipping into a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2024

By: Stephen_McBride

That’s the question on every investor’s mind right now. Because recessions are bad for stocks.

In today’s Jolt, I’ll walk you through what the three most accurate recession indicators are telling us… and suggest what to do about it.

Let’s get after it.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.

Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.

Monday, August 12, 2024

Gold Supply Falling Short of Market Demand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Richard_Mills

It’s been a volatile week in the markets.

On Monday, Aug. 5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 3%, resulting in the worst day for both indexes since September 2022. 

The sell-off was blamed on factors ranging from worries about the economy and the slow response from the Federal Reserve, regarding interest rate cuts, to the unwind of a popular global currency trade and concerns over corporate earnings, CNBC said.

(The “carry trade” involves borrowing in cheap currencies such as the Japanese yen and buying higher-yielding currencies. It has helped to supply markets with liquidity.)

Monday, August 12, 2024

Gold’s Minsky Moment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

A “Minsky Moment” refers to a point in time when a period of bullish speculation leads to a spectacular market crash.

Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the theory centers around the inherent instability of stock markets.

Monday, August 12, 2024

The Future of Mankind - You are Being Sold a Lie! / Politics / Social Issues

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: MoneyMetals

The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.

Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?

Monday, August 12, 2024

Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Paul_Rejczak

Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.

Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

AI Will Turn Everyone Into Gamblers! The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History is Coming.. Part 1/2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Plunging Stocks, Gold Miners, and Lucrative Implications / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The stock markets around the world are sliding, and so does bitcoin – just as I warned.

Miners invalidated their tiny breakout, closed below the July low on Friday, and they are poised to slide even more.

That’s just the beginning.

Let’s start with a quote from my Friday’s Gold Trading Alert:

Stocks might have had their “oops” moment this week. (…)

Saturday, August 10, 2024

The #1 Takeaway from Big Tech Stocks Earnings / Companies / Earnings

By: Stephen_McBride

It’s a jam-packed Jolt on artificial intelligence (AI) today… plus, a well-deserved dunk on The New York Times.
Let’s get after it…

1. America spent $600 billion (in today’s dollars) building its highway system.

Big tech companies will spend more money constructing AI data centers in the next four years.

It’s the biggest infrastructure buildout ever, and it’s not even close.