US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026
Housing-Market / US Housing Oct 11, 2024 - 06:42 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 3 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Whilst my latest extensive analysis just made available to patrons covers the stock markets prospective trend trajecotry not just into the end of this year but into late 2025.
Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally
CONTENTS
- Presidential Election Year Seasonal Trend
- What Does a Strong September Mean for the Stock Market?
- Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months
- Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market
- 2025 Mid Decade Year
- The Risks are to the Upside!
- Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks
- AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
- LRCX Stock Split
- META $596
- Nvidia 5X to 30X
- CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER?
- Never Buy an IPO
- STOP LOSSES
- CHINA Stocks Short Squeeze
- Bubble Drivers
- Fourth Reich Carving out an Empire Out of the Corpse of the US Empire
- Why the US Empire Would Lose In a War Against Iran
- Bitcoin Countng Down To Pump to New All Time Highs!
- MSTR No Brainer
- CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY REVISITED
- STOCKS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
- CAPTALISNG ON THE NEXT BEAR MARKET
US House Prices Momentum
This graph shows the 2022 correction acted to unwind a very overbought state that had lifted house prices momentum to rival that of the 2000's bull market at +20%, before correcting and bottoming out at -1% and that now likely sows the seeds for a sustainable bull run for several years, though at a more measured pace than the initial rally of 10% off the January 2023 low of 310 i.e. likely to trend higher in the range of +7% to +5% i.e. a similar trend to that of 2014 to 2018.
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024-2026
US house prices look set to continue trending higher into 2026 in response to continuing rampant money printing in the form of the $1.7 trillion annual US budget deficit coupled with the fact that a recession does not appear to be on the horizon for 2024 and 2025, and likely into 2026, and that US interest rates are likely to weakly trend lower, though to nowhere near to where they were some 2 years ago, then add a growing population all of which suggests that US house prices should continue trending higher by at least 5% per annum for the next 2 years into Q1 2026 data. And it is highly probable that commercial real estate will outperform residential real estate over the next 2 years by attempting to bridge the valuation gap.
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Case Shiller 10 cities Index latest data for March 2024 of 341.7 to target a 2 year rise of 12% by March 2026 data of 383.2.
There will be lots of doom and gloom for an imminent US house prices crash, just remember all of these fools having been barking none stop that house prices would crash due to rising interest rates! Those who followed MSM BS now face house prices trading at ALL TIME HIGHS!
The only thing you need to remember where house prices are concerned, in fact virtually any market is - "The greater the deviation from the high, the greater the buying opportunity being presented" Where the greatest deviations will be when NO ONE WANTS TO BUY A HOUSE as was the case following the Financial Crisis when the media was full of BS with typical headlines during 2010 that UK house prices were gong to continue to fall by another 50%. Those who bought any time between 2010 to 2014 would have bought near rock bottom prices as my Housing Market ebook paved the way towards capitalising upon the deep deviation from the highs at the time.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/pdf/UK-Housing-Market-2014-2018-by-Nadeem_Walayat.pdf
US Housing Stocks
I often hear patrons lament at the performance of MPW in the comments, so how has the mini housing stocks portfolio actually performed over the past 18 months since 31st Dec 2022?
Forestar $32 / $15.4 = +107%
IIPR $107.5/ $101 = +6.56%
MPW $5.37 / $11 -51%
REDFN $6.45/ $4.2 +53%
BDEV £5.01 / £3.97 +26% (UK).
Average gain across all 5 is +28.5%. And this is not even allowing for average buys being a lot lower than the 31st Dec 2022 price, for instance IIPR $75 vs $101. Whilst MPW average will be well under $10 for all,
So given the fact that commercial real estate has fallen then the performance of the mini portfolio of +28.5% is pretty good all things considered. That and commercial real estate is expected to out perform residential over the next 2 years bodes well for this mini housing portfolio over the next 2 years.
UK General Election Result Forecast
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Mentally soft as a sponge Richi Sunak clearly cannot take the pain of being PM any more even though his job is mostly about reading cue cards handed to him by his handlers, nevertheless Richi has thrown in the towel and declared he does not want to do it for another 6 months, he's had his fun playing at being PM and so announced a General Election for the 4th of July, Richi's Independence Day! Can you imagine that this clown has been PM for 575 days! They used to call John Major a dull boring grey man in a grey suit, but this guy Richi has done a worse job than if Mr Bean had been PM! I do not recall anything that this fool has done over the past 575 days as PM! He was never fit to be an MP let alone PM, his primary focus has always been to get to a net worth of £1 billion! Which is fine and dandy but why the hell make the British people suffer for near 2 years in the process? The Tories deserve to DIE an electoral death, the party needs to undergo a major PURGE!
If there is any justice that Sunak should be stripped of his wealth and locked up in the Tower of London!
And No it won't result in Britain's Independence Day given that there is no choice between Fake Socialist wannabe multimillionaire Keir Stalker Stalmer who is destined to become Britains Next sorry excuse for a Prime Minister which has been the trend trajectory Britain has been on since I last covered the prospects for a UK election 6 months ago when I concluded -
The Tories committed suicide as soon as they decapitated Boris Johnson, Liz Truss was a disaster, Rishi Sunak is a only marginally better dead PM walking. The Tories are FINISHED! It's going to be an electoral blood bath. Labour winning over 400 seats would not surprise me doubling their current 198 count and well past the 326 seats winning post..
The latest polls confirm that the Tories are dead as a dormouse, despite all of the propaganda of the past 6 months the Tories have actually sunk further lower in the polls with Labour now on a commanding lead of 44% vs Tories dead on 22%. And don't think for a moment that the floating turd is going to pull things around for the Tories, every tine he opens his mouth everyone gets reminded why they should NOT vote Tory!
It's going to be a bloodbath! An even worse nightmare than Richi's gang of idiots, a Labour party with a landslide victory, well over 400 seats! Does it matter if they win with 405 or 455 seats? The damage done will be the same.
They will be able to get every crackpot bill through Parliament aimed at punishing those who work hard and rewarding the bums sat on benefits their whole lives, waiting for someone to come along and spoon feed them. And then we have the bureaucracy, the silly servant paper pushers that are likely to see their ranks grow by a million under Labour as the cure for unemployment. In the Age of AI we are going to see labour create tens of thousands of back offices full of hundreds of paper pushers shuffling papers between offices.
Get ready for a lot higher inflation in the UK, yes there may be an initial growth spurt from all of the rampant money printing but it will soon feed through to higher inflation and it's bond market consequences.
So here we stand a few weeks before the election where Britain is going to be exposed to volumes of poop across it's broadcast media as if either Labour or Tories winning was going to make any difference to the fundamentals of a sinking US aircraft carrier. Neither party will ever do what needs to be done which would amount to a revolution, it would have taken the likes of Jeremy Corbyn to usher in a new dawn, yes it would be painful but all the current buffoons will do is to continue the current status quo thus make things a lot worse for ordinary folk as the Government prints money, causes inflation and hence average living standards drop as the money continues to flow to those who own the means of production.
Yes you can get rich in Britain by doing the OPPOSITE of what the system wants you to do as I covered in my HGR guides,
The system does not want you to BUY CRYPTO! Even now the criminals at the FCA do not want the British public to be able to buy bitcoin ETF's! The Financial Crime Agency works for the Elite, one of the few sure bets to getting rich right now, Bitcoin, destined to X2 from it's current price and these criminals want to deny the British public access to relatively safe spot bitcoin ETF's!
What's going to be result of having a Labour government?
They are going to continue to squeeze the middle classes whilst letting the mega-rich off the hook which does not bode well for wealth creation amongst the working masses within the UK. Your fortunes will be made abroad, either by migrating or online.
I fear the Labour redistribution of wealth fanatics will target one of the few mechanisms that ordinary folk have to accumulate wealth, the tax free ISA accounts i.e. likely put some sort of cap on how much one can have invested tax free, say a £100k cap that will bugger things up a lot for me and many other Brit's!
Meanwhile both 'leaders' continue to bend over backwards to congratulate the Fourth Reich in their genocide of Palestinians - The illusion of Democracy!
For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Most Recent Analysis - Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally
CONTENTS
- Presidential Election Year Seasonal Trend
- What Does a Strong September Mean for the Stock Market?
- Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months
- Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market
- 2025 Mid Decade Year
- The Risks are to the Upside!
- Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks
- AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
- LRCX Stock Split
- META $596
- Nvidia 5X to 30X
- CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER?
- Never Buy an IPO
- STOP LOSSES
- CHINA Stocks Short Squeeze
- Bubble Drivers
- Fourth Reich Carving out an Empire Out of the Corpse of the US Empire
- Why the US Empire Would Lose In a War Against Iran
- Bitcoin Countng Down To Pump to New All Time Highs!
- MSTR No Brainer
- CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY REVISITED
- STOCKS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
- CAPTALISNG ON THE NEXT BEAR MARKET
Recent analysis includes -
Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2024 to Jan 2025
Nvidia Earnings vs Stock Market Correction Window
Also access to my comprehensive 3 part How to Get Rich series -
Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide
Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3
The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH
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By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2024 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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