Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, December 06, 2009

Deflationary Economic Depression 2010, Ready or Not Here it Comes! / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Much has been written about the Great Depression and the present crisis. There is much that is similar and some that is not. The differences explain why events have unfolded differently. The similarities explain why the end will be the same.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Marc Faber Why Dubai Debt Default is Just the Tip of the Iceberg / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: LewRockwell

Uber bear investor and Gloom, Boom and Doom Report editor Marc Faber says Dubai World’s debt problems are just the tip of the iceberg, and suggests investors will be better off not buying U.S. government bonds.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Rate Edges Lower to 10%, But Jobs Keep Contracting / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Employment Report.

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs..

Saturday, December 05, 2009

Mauldin on the Debt Deleveraging, Deflationary, Asset-bubble-bursting Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

This week I am in New York, and have a whirlwind of meetings (and I admit, a lot of fun on the side) and not much time to write. I have been saving today’s letter for a month or so, for a time such as this. Damien Hoffman of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet interviewed me and posted the transcript on his web site. I thought it was one of the better interviews I have done recently, and so it is this week’s Thoughts from the Frontline. In addition to the wide-ranging economic questions, he asks for my thoughts on how one becomes an investment writer. I often demur when asked that question (what do I know?), but did my best to answer this time. I think you will enjoy the letter. (By the way, he does a lot of interesting interviews, which he posts for free on his web site at www.wallstcheatsheet.com.)

Friday, December 04, 2009

Britain, the Canary down the Western Coal Mine / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Phill_Tomlinson

"We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step."

Friday, December 04, 2009

The Economic Recovery Is Looking Stronger Every Week / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Sy_Harding

The stimulus efforts were expensive for sure, and the cost, like the cost of two 7-year wars that were supposed to be three-month skirmishes, will be with us for years to come. But the stimulus efforts at least seem to be working even faster than expected.

Friday, December 04, 2009

China Looking for Entrepreneurs / Economics / China Economy

By: David_Franke

Filmmaker Ole Schell has given us a compelling one-hour documentary that reveals exactly why we should be concerned about China’s challenge to the United States.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Welcome to the Asian Century / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Money_Morning

[Editor’s Note: This interview was adapted from a recent issue of the McKinsey Quarterly, the business Journal of McKinsey & Co. It is reprinted with McKinsey’s permission.]

Asia has proven comparatively resilient against the current downturn, but hurdles still lie ahead. In order to maintain robust growth rates in the face of weak U.S. demand, the region’s dynamic economies must stoke domestic consumption and embrace environmentally sustainable development policies, says Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia (NYSE: MS) and author of “The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization.”

Thursday, December 03, 2009

How Progressive Capitalism Conquers Mass Poverty / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Henry_Hazlitt

Throughout history, until about the middle of the 18th century, mass poverty was nearly everywhere the normal condition of man. Then capital accumulation and a series of major inventions ushered in the Industrial Revolution. In spite of occasional setbacks, economic progress became accelerative. Today, in the United States, in Canada, in nearly all of Europe, in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, mass poverty has been practically eliminated. It has either been conquered or is in process of being conquered by a progressive capitalism. Mass poverty is still found in most of Latin America, most of Asia, and most of Africa.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Arizona Runs Out of Cash / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Here is a good story courtesy of the Arizona Republic: Cash-short Ariz. maxes out new line of credit.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

China Will Continue to Drive the Global Economic Recovery in 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Don Miller writes: China isn’t just leading the global economic recovery – it’s lapping the field.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an 8.9% annual rate in the third quarter – the fastest pace in a year and up from 7.9% in the second quarter And the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for China’s GDP to jump more than 10% in the final three months of 2009, setting the stage for double digit growth in 2010.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

The Five Things Investors Need to Know About China / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Legendary investor, Bill “The Bond King” Gross made headlines recently when he said that China will one day have to contend with a bubble of its own making. Gross runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC (PIMCO). Millions of investors reacted just as you would expect when someone of his prominence makes such a pronouncement – they panicked.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

A Guide to Keynes's Dangerous and Destructive Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: David_Gordon

Where Keynes Went Wrong And Why Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts. By Hunter Lewis. Axios Press, 2009. Vi + 384 pages.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Recession, Depression, Deflation, Inflation, Collapse or Economic Recovery 2010? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mac_Slavo

The International Forecaster, Bob Chapman, discusses The Fed’s options for 2010 and what effect their decisions will have on the economy in Potential for Fed To Hyperinflate:

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Britain's Inflationary Debt Spiral as Bank of England Keeps Expanding Quantitative Easing / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over the coming years we will witness the systematic destruction of the British currency as witnessed through the inflation and commodity / asset price data as the Inflation Mega-trend starts to unfold following the asset price destruction induced Deflation of 2008 into early 2009.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Dubai World a Debt Fuelled Mirage in the Desert / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Browne

In recent days, world attention has focused on the potential debt default of Dubai World, the main government-owned corporation in the emirate of Dubai. The transformation of the city-state from a Persian Gulf backwater into the glittering financial capital of the Middle East can only be fully appreciated by those who watched it grow over the last 15 years. But as palm-shaped islands sprouted and spires shot up into the clouds, few spectators realized that Dubai was constructing the perfect metaphor of the 21st century economy: a mirage built on debt.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Soviet Investors Seeking $900 Billion in Compensation From Russian Ministry of Finance / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Pravda

Recently, Russian officials remembered about the lost Soviet investments and decided to significantly increase compensation to the investors. For the first time after recognizing Soviet investments as internal debt, the Russian Ministry of Finance will repay 3 Russian rubles per each Soviet ruble, instead of the previous 2:1 scheme. The state cumulative investments debt is estimated to be $900 billion. Experts doubt the fairness of the new repayment scheme and believe that the rates of 1:30, 1:80 and more would be more appropriate.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

What You Need to Know about Dubai Debt Drama / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Q1_Publishing

 “U.S financial institutions could take direct hits,” warned a CNN headline after last week’s market rattling announcement from Dubai. Like an eerie reminder of last November, when the only reasonable expectation you could have as the markets closed was that you would wake up to something unexpected, the markets opened up with a renewed sense of fear.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors: Asian Views on America / Economics / US Economy

By: Trader_Mark

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is a frequent guest on CNBC and unlike many of the bullish, seal clapping brigade often brings pragmatic realism to the TV screen.  In his latest missive from last week he reflects on observations from his latest trip to Asia, and I think there are some very compelling insights for American readers who have been indoctrinated in American exceptionalism since birth. 

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Can Bank of Japan Overcome Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Money_Morning

Jason Simpkins writes: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) yesterday (Tuesday) took steps to preserve a fragile economic recovery by pumping more short-term funds into the nation’s banking system. However, many analysts are worried that the central bank didn’t do enough to put a ceiling on the yen, and prop up its ailing corporate sector.