Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 03, 2015
U.S. GDP Sucking Spoilt Milk From A Bloated Dead Sow / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
With US GDP growth ‘officially’ back where it belongs, in the Arctic zone close to freezing on the surface but much worse in real life, for reasons both Albert Edwards and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (not exactly a pair of Siamese twins) remarked this week; that is, excluding the “biggest inventory build in history, the economy contracted sharply”, it’s time for everyone to at long last change the angle from which they view the world, if not the color of their glasses.
Sunday, May 03, 2015
French Unemployment Hits New Record High - Whose to Blame? / Economics / France
By: Mike_Shedlock
While ECB president Mario Draghi brags his economic policy of negative interest rates is working, I ask for whom?
On April 23, 2015 I noted Spain's Unemployment Rate Increases to 23.7%; 114,300 Jobs Vanish in First Quarter, Public Sector Jobs Rise.
Let's now turn our attention to France.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 01, 2015
Investigating The U.S. GDP Deflator: Wildly Differing Results Depending on Your Choice / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
As noted in Real Q1 GDP 0.2% vs. Consensus 1.0%; Disaster in the Details I got the first quarter GDP forecast details correct.
However, a bit of self-assessment with differing GDP deflators shows my prediction of close to zero growth could easily have looked rather silly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
The Many Failures of the CPI Consumer Price Index / Economics / Inflation
By: Mark_Thornton
Austrians oppose the whole notion of trying to accurately measure “inflation” which mainstream economists see as a general rise in prices. (Austrians view inflation as a politically engineered increase in the money supply.)
A few years ago, mainstream economists like Paul Krugman chastised the Austrians for the lack of anticipated price inflation in the economy. However, their mistake was a fixation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If you looked around at other prices in the economy you could see higher prices in just about every other market, such as commodities, oil, gold, producer goods, real estate, and stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Why Deflation is Unlikely / Economics / Deflation
By: GoldMoney
Financial markets are becoming aware that the US economy is stalling, so investors increasingly take the view that with demand likely to stagnate or even fall, prices for goods and services will soften. This is already threatening to be the situation in a number of other advanced nations, with negative interest rates to combat it becoming commonplace. For this reason, gold and silver priced in dollars are expected by many traders to drift lower.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
What Does The Strong U.S. Dollar Mean For The Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed no longer keeps promises of being "patient". The March's FOMC statement was, however, interpreted as dovish, which caused the plunge in the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the renewed expectations of the interest rate hike (caused by some Fed officials' hawkish statements or stronger economic data in the second quarter due to low base in the first quarter) may cause the U.S. dollar to rally further, which could harm the emerging markets and unwind the carry trade. It is then high time we explain the consequences of the possible next bull in the greenback for the global economy.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
BEA Reports Weak U.S. 1st Quarter 2015 GDP Growth at 0.25% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.25% annualized rate, down sharply (-1.97%) from the +2.22% growth rate recorded for the prior quarter. And according to the "real final sales of domestic product" (BEA's very own "bottom line" for the economy), the economy actually shrank during the quarter, contracting at about a half percent (-0.49%) annualized rate, down -2.81% from last quarter's +2.32%. The difference between the headline number and "final sales" is inventory growth, which is excluded from the "bottom line" figure.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
U.S. GDP Economic Growth Flat-Lines, Fed Interest Rate Hike Evaporates / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
As pretty much everyone is now aware, US Q1 growth was way below expectations. And the only reason it was even marginally positive was because businesses expanded their inventories at a record rate. Here’s a chart from Zero Hedge comparing the economy’s growth with that of inventories:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 27, 2015
Greece: Down and Probably Out / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Led by the charismatic Alexis Tsipras, the Syriza party took office in Athens on January 26th. The most prominent member of the new Prime Minister’s cabinet is Yanis Varoufakis, the Finance Minister. He is an economics professor, with a complete repertoire of anti-capitalist rhetoric. And with government spending amounting to 58.5% of Greek GDP, Varoufakis’ hot anti-austerity harangues have turned the meaning of the word “austerity” on its head.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 27, 2015
Economic Stagnation - Let's Blame The Savers / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_Pento
Just like in the world of fashion, economic terminologies come in and out of vogue. One such economic term trending recently is Secular Stagnation. First proposed by Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen back in the 1930s, Secular Stagnation was coined to explain America's dismal economic performance -- in which sluggish growth and employment levels were well below potential.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
The "Living Wage" Mistake / Economics / Wages
By: MISES
Ryan W. McMaken writes: Much of the push to raise minimum wages centers on the assumption that each individual worker should be paid an amount that allows the worker to purchase food, health care, transportation, and housing based on that one wage alone. In many cases, the living wage claims extend to the claim that each worker — or two adult workers, in some cases — should be able to support a family of four or more.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
US Factories Crushed By Strong U.S. Dollar / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Government statistics are always suspect, for at least one obvious reason: Modern economies are way too big and complex to measure in real-time. So virtually every number is revised in the months after its release, frequently to the point of saying something very different. But by then lots of new data has come out and no one cares about the old numbers.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
China Economic Slowdown Story - Why “Didi Dache” Is a Phrase You Need to Know / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
If all you’ve been hearing regarding China recently is noise about its economic slowdown, you need to find a better news source.
Investors need to stop worrying over China’s long-expected gradual slowdown. Do so and you likely will see, as my guest today does, the long-term growth ahead for key tech sectors in the world’s most populous nation.
I’m talking about the kind of growth that will fill investors’ portfolios with soaring profits for years to come.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Children & Retirees: 7.5 Million Reasons Our Economy Isn’t Growing / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: A few weeks ago my lovely wife and younger daughter, who is still in high school, traveled to Texas for a birthday party. It wasn’t just any party, it was the centennial celebration for my wife’s great aunt.
More amazing than this lady’s longevity is the fact she’s not alone. She and her two sisters (my wife’s grandmother and her two great aunts) all live together, ranging in age from 91 to 100. We call it “the house of little old ladies.”
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Characteristics of Extremely Over-Indebted Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: John_Mauldin
I think it was almost two years ago that I was in Cyprus. Cyprus had just come through its crisis and was still in shell shock. I was there to get a feel for what it was like, and a number of my readers had courteously arranged for me to meet with all sorts of people and do a few presentations. A local group arranged for me to speak at the lecture hall of the Central Bank of Cyprus in Nicosia.
There were about 50 people in the room. I was busily working on Code Red at the time and had money flows, quantitative easing, and currency wars at the front of my brain. As part of my presentation, I talked about how countries would seek to use currency devaluation in order to gain an advantage over other countries – that we were getting ready to enter an era of currency wars, which would be disguised as monetary policy trying to create economic growth. Which is exactly what we have today. Every now and then I get a few things right.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Michel Chevalier’s Case Against the Patent System / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Louis Rouanet writes: Michel Chevalier (1806–1879) was a very influential French economist during the second half of the nineteenth century. He is still widely known in France for being the architect of the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 which was the free-trade agreement between France and Great Britain. Michel Chevalier is, however, less known for his major contribution to the intellectual property debate.1 Contrary to Jean Baptiste Say, Gustave de Molinari, and many other French economists, Chevalier fiercely opposed the patent system. As Fritz Machlup remarked: “Among French economists, Michel Chevalier was probably the most emphatic in the joint antagonism to tariffs and patents, declaring that both ‘stem from the same doctrine and result in the same abuses.’”
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Newman writes: The word “inflation” means different things to different people. One popular conception of inflation focuses on prices — all prices, actually. For these people, including some economists, “inflation” means a rise in the general price level, i.e., the goods and services we buy have higher price tags.
The other conception of inflation focuses on the money supply. Economists with this focus think of inflation as an increase in the amount of money in the economy. We’ll see that viewing inflation as a rise in prices can be misleading and ambiguous especially compared to viewing inflation as an increase in the money supply.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: GoldCore
- Greek government to withhold IMF payments according to the FT
- Prime Minister Tsipras denies preparing for default according to Reuters
- Government funds to run out by end of month
- Default would likely lead to “Grexit” and return to drachma
- EU may not withstand uncertainty surrounding break-up of monetary union
- Concern could trigger derivatives crisis and ‘Lehman moment’
- Like frogs in a pot of water that is very slowly coming to the boil
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
China Margin Debt, Trading Accounts, Construction Equipment / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to my April 1, post China Margin Debt Soars to Record 1 Trillion Yuan; Another Central Bank Sponsored Bubble I received an email from reader Nicolas.
He writes ...
Read full article... Read full article...Hello Mish
Happy Monday. I find your output excellent an I hope that you are flattered that you are followed by private banks is Switzerland.
Quick question on your last note; please can you tell me what (Bloomberg/Reuters) code you use for Chinese Margin debt? i.e. where can I cross-reference the Trillion Yuan figure you quote?
Best regards and many thanks,
Nicolas
Monday, April 13, 2015
The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.