Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Minimum Wages Hikes Are Actually Tax Hikes / Economics / Wages
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
The US federal minimum wage is getting a lot of attention these days. I have no doubt that the current $7.25 per hour minimum wage will be raised soon because american intellect has been diseased and destroyed by a Pelosi-like infestation of terminal ignorance. Americans are no longer capable of examining a problem fully to understand the correct solution. Sound bits, regardless of their relation to truth, have replaced logic.
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Friday, June 12, 2015
The Fallacies of GDP Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The common error of confusing growth with progress goes largely unnoticed, though it permeates all macroeconomic analysis. There is no better example of this mistake than the fallacies behind the interpretation of Gross Domestic Product. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services in a given year. As such, it is only an accounting identity reflecting the quantity of money in the economy.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
Let’s Hope Machines Take Our Jobs: We Want Wealth, Not Jobs / Economics / Technology
By: MISES
Peter St. Onge writes: The job-threatening rise of the machines is an economically illiterate meme that refuses to die. We’re actually probably in the early stages of it, a bull-market in neo-luddism, if you will. Bastiat’s “Candlemakers Petititon” answered this one long ago, but today I’ll run a little thought experiment that owes it all to good old Bastiat.
Let’s say Weird Al Yankovic invents a machine capable of making everything with a single push of a button. The first thing he does is print up a bunch of machines and sell them for a ton. Weird Al is now a billionaire, and there are thousands of make-everything machines.
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Thursday, June 11, 2015
The Fed's Gift of Free Money: Return to Sender / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The real reason consumers aren't spending is not a matter of monetary policy; it's a matter of psychology
On June 2, the postman rang once -- and, boy, did he ring.
That day, the Wall Street Journal published a strongly worded letter titled, "Grand Central: A Letter to Stingy American Consumers," which included these notable passages:
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Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Fact Checking Paul Krugman's Claim To Be "Right About Everything", Krugtron the Invincible! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Andrew Syrios writes:
But can the debate really be as one-sided as I portray it? Well, look at the results: again and again, people on the opposite side prove to have used bad logic, bad data, the wrong historical analogies, or all of the above. I’m Krugtron the Invincible!
Thus wrote the great Paul Krugman. A man so modest as to proclaim that “I think I can say without false modesty, a huge win; I (and those of like mind) have been right about everything.”
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Tuesday, June 09, 2015
A Six-Point Plan to Restore Economic Growth and Prosperity / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Three weeks ago I co-authored an op-ed for the Investor’s Business Daily with Stephen Moore, founder of the Club for Growth and former Wall Street Journal editorial board member, currently working with the Heritage Foundation. Our goal was to present a simple outline of the policies we need to pursue as a country in order to get us back to 3–4% annual GDP growth. As we note in the op-ed, Stephen and I have been engaging with a number of presidential candidates and with other economists around the topic of growth.
Monday, June 08, 2015
Technology Needs Capital To Produce Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
In his article “The Big Meh” Paul Krugman complains that despite all the information technology advances the effect so far has been negligible as far as economic growth is concerned.
Krugman writes “That the whole digital era, spanning more than four decades, is looking like a disappointment. New technologies have yielded great headlines but modest economic results. Why? ... The answer is that I don’t know — but neither does anyone else.”
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Friday, June 05, 2015
US Jobs Table 9 BLS Data Dump / Economics / Employment
By: James_Quinn
It seems the mainstream media is giddy with excitement over the 280,000 jobs supposedly created in May. The markets aren’t so happy, as good news is actually bad news. What excuse will Yellen and her fellow Wall Street puppets at the Federal Reserve use to not increase interest rates from emergency levels of 0.25%? The ten year Treasury rate immediately skyrocketed to 2.43% in seconds. It was at 1.64% in February. That’s a 46% decline in price in four months. Do you still think bonds are a safe investment? Guess what is tied to the 10 Year Treasury rate? Mortgage rates. There goes the fake housing recovery. Artificially high prices, higher mortgage rates, and young people unable to buy sounds like a perfect recipe for collapse.
Thursday, June 04, 2015
Uptown Slowdown: The Rich Are Slowing Their Spending Now, Too! / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Recent statistics show that the affluent are rapidly slowing in their spending. Economists are surprised, as usual. We’re not. The beauty of demographic trends is that they allow us to see changes in spending well ahead. It’s the single best indicator we have for the economy.
This is even more important in a time when many leading indicators no longer work, thanks to an economy artificially manipulated by quantitative easing. What we know from our research is that the demographic blows have already started to hit us since 2007, but that they’ll get markedly worse through 2020 and 2022.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Even The Good Economic Numbers Are Bad / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
US factory orders tanked again this morning, and were generally reported that way at first. To take just a few of the low-lights:
- Factory orders have declined in eight of the last nine months.
- Orders for transportation equipment fell 2.4 percent while orders for computers and consumer goods-related equipment also fell by varying amounts.
- Last month’s durable goods orders were revised to -0.3% from the original +1%.
- Business inventories remain at near-record high levels.
Monday, June 01, 2015
The Meaning of Financial Repression / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mark_Thornton
Mark Thornton writes: We live in a world of massive monetary inflation and extremely low interest rates. Mortgage rates are near historic lows and yet it seems that people cannot get loans. Home sales are up, but with a near record percentage of sales made with cash, rather than a mortgage. The unemployment rate is nearing “full employment” and yet a record number of people do not have jobs.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Tanashian
A quick review for newer subscribers: In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry. After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator. The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Austerity, Economics and Religion / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There are many things going on in the Greece vs Institutions+Germany negotiations, and many more on the fringe of the talks, with opinions being vented left and right, not least of all in the media, often driven more by a particular agenda than by facts or know-how.
What most fail to acknowledge is to what extent the position of the creditor institutions is powered by economic religion, and that is a shame, because it makes it very difficult for the average reader and viewer to understand what happens, and why.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Bad News For China: Bernanke Says It’s Okay / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will be remembered by future generations as the guy who didn’t see a housing bubble while he was creating it.
That is, unless he says something even dumber, like this:
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Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Don't Drown in the Sea of Global Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Peter Krauth writes: Debt is the proverbial double-edged sword, offering access to costly assets, but sometimes driving overleveraged borrowers into bankruptcy.
Only politicians and some Keynesian economists could convince themselves – along with a good portion of the masses – that more debt is the solution to the world's already crushing levels.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Why Economic Growth Is Impossible / Economics / Economic Theory
By: BATR
The quandary of the economic dilemma continues. A globe suffering from a deflationary financial impact, while consumer prices rise well above the reported cost of living increases, does not bode well that prospects of commercial growth can rescue the world economy. What changes can overcome this predicament? Well, some academic scholar’s offers serious concern that a long term rebound towards prosperity is no longer possible.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: I’m not much for glossing over the true state of affairs just to make things look better, which is why I take issue with many government reports.
When it comes to providing clear information on the economy, the U.S. government is more late-night pitchman than serious news anchor. And to make matters worse, many of the numbers they peddle have been “adjusted” so that reports show better results.
Monday, May 25, 2015
Into the Breach / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Recently, I thought it would be fun to upgrade the turbo charger on my old car. No real good reason, other than it would be free (it was given to me) and interesting. It’s a very light car that feels like a little rocket (when it works)--a guilty pleasure.
One thing I hadn’t anticipated was the need for higher quality intake hoses to manage the extra air flow and exhaust heat. Over and over, I keep blowing hose connections. While the car still drives during periods, there is barely any power at all.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The rule of law subjects the State to a fixed set of rules that limits the scope of its coercive powers. Individuals and their property are protected from the arbitrary, ad hoc actions of the State and other individuals. In consequence, individuals can plan their activities within the confines of known, fixed “rules of the game.” This allows people to pursue their personal ends, as long as their actions do not infringe on the broadly-defined property rights of their fellow citizens.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Government Regulation and Economic Stagnation / Economics / Market Regulation
By: MISES
Peter St. Onge writes: One of the more interesting economic debates in the past couple of decades is why the economy is slowing down.
Since 2000, per capita GDP growth in the US has been 0.9 percent per year, compared to 2.3 percent per year in the previous fifty years. This is a big difference: at 2.3 percent growth we double in wealth every generation. At 0.9 percent it takes us close to a century to double. So why the slowdown?
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