Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 06, 2016
Stock Market Getting Ready for the Next Flash Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Making sense out of the Wave pattern has been a mind bender. I keep reminding myself, “There is order here. I just have to find it!” The decline since 1500 hours on Monday is not an impulse as I had originally expected.
What I have come up with is a truncated Wave (ii) scenario for today’s move. This may be otherwise known as a “running” Wave (ii), since Wave c has been effectively stopped by the 4.5-year trendline.
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Thursday, May 05, 2016
Central Planners Versus Contrarian Logic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Doug_Wakefield
"For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction" - Newton's Third Law, The Physics Classroom
Since the Great Recession, anyone following financial history and markets knows that this period of intervention and debt has surpassed everything seen in history prior to the events of 2007-2009. For every pull back in "risk on" assets, there have been actions to make sure equity markets went higher or back to previous highs, the lead example worldwide being US equity markets.
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Thursday, May 05, 2016
Stocks Extended Their Short-Term Downtrend But Will They Continue Lower? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, May 05, 2016
The Next 2008 Style Financial Crisis Event Is Lurching Towards Us / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Graham_Summers
As we noted yesterday, the ECB cannot and will not be able to generate GDP growth or inflation.
The EU is simply too leveraged. You cannot have an entire region sporting a Debt to GDP of over 90%… with banks leveraged at 26 to 1 using sovereign debt as collateral on their derivatives trades, and “fix it” using NIRP or QE.
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Thursday, May 05, 2016
Stock Market Holding On By A Thread... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The Nasdaq has long ago broken down below all key, exponential moving averages. Bad action there, but this has been an S&P 500 bull market for the most part the last year plus. The Nasdaq has been performing poorly due to those higher beta, higher P/E stocks the big money wants nothing to do with. Priceline Inc. (PCLN) was down 100+ today on their earnings report. No mercy anywhere if you have higher P/E stocks. The big boys and girls want lower beta. They want lower P/E and they want lower risk.
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Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Dow Stocks Bull Not Ready to Crash Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Have patience. All things are difficult before they become easy.
SaadiOkay, okay, we have heard it before; this market should crash, everything is fake, etc. We are as we have spoken many times over the past two years in a new paradigm. Reality is being recreated; this entire economic recovery is a hoax but despite this, the markets have soared higher. What gives? If you manipulate the data, you can control the outcome, and that’s what has been done throughout this so-called economic recovery phase. Hence, there is no point in looking at the markets through old lenses, because the playing field has changed. The only thing you can focus on now is price and market psychology.
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Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Stocks may "cut loose" after supports are passed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX took all morning to successfully decline through the 4.5-year trendline and retest it. There are two probable paths it may take from here. First, it may complete an impulse at the 50-day Moving Average at 2037.73 and retest the trendline again. Or it may break the 50-day support and 2-hour cycle Bottom at 2026.17 while continuing its decline, as the Wave structure in the chart implies.
Tuesday, May 03, 2016
Stock Market Technical Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Christopher_Quigley
Technical Summary:
Short Term Trend: Neutral With A Bearish Configuration Possibly Developing.
Medium Term Trend: Bullish.
Long Term Trend: Neutral:Both The 100 DMA and the 200 DMA Are Flat.
Slow Stochastics: Overbought: Market Risk Is High.
Fast Stochastics: Neutral But Trending To Oversold.
VIX: Very Low: Market Risk Is High.
McClennan Oscillator: Low But Trending Down. Not Ideal For Shorting The Market.
A/D Line: Bullish.
Tuesday, May 03, 2016
Stock Market Bad News Bought Again...It's All About Rates....Nothing Else... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
After seven straight down days on the Nasdaq, the market was ready for a bit of a bounce. The Nasdaq has been underperforming, mostly due to Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has been sinking like a stone since they had their earnings report and Carl Ichan sold all of his shares. Many other Nasdaq stocks have participated in the bad earnings world as well, which has clearly contributed to the down turn in the Nasdaq versus the rest of the stock market. The S&P 500 is holding up far better than the Nasdaq as the big money continues to rotate into safety and away from froth, and higher P/E and beta stocks. Risk is not what they're after at this moment in time. Safety is the name of their game.
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Tuesday, May 03, 2016
Stock Market Retracement May be Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The retracement rally hit 61.8% of ita recent decline and appears complete. This is a good aggressive short entry here, as well.
Monday, May 02, 2016
Stock Market Bounce Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to be completing its bounce today. Today is a Pi date, so the bounce may be over by the end of the day. Once through the 4.5 year trendline, there may be a panic event in stocks. A panic event may take place in as little as 4.3 days (30.1 hours) That may target May 9 as the next Master Cycle low. This is our preliminary target until we see how the decline develops.
Monday, May 02, 2016
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Two-Month Long Rally - Will It Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, May 02, 2016
Stock Market Correction Underway "Upside Objective Reached" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The beginning of a lengthy correction is most likely underway!
SPX Intermediate trend: Rally top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, April 30, 2016
Consensus Forming: China Heading Back Into Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: John_Rubino
China’s historic post-2009 debt binge flew largely under the radar — fooling most observers into thinking the global economy was recovering rather than just re-leveraging.
Now Beijing is back at it, borrowing over $1 trillion in this year’s first quarter, buying up commodities and creating the illusion of global growth. But this time the scam hasn’t gone unnoticed. Reporters, editors and money managers seem, at last, to be catching on. Some representative headlines:
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Saturday, April 30, 2016
How Much Longer Until Stock Market Bubble Bursts? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Graham_Summers
It’s been a rough week for stocks.
Traders gunned for 2,100 on the S&P 500 time and again. All of those efforts failed to hold. And this was despite the Fed failing to raise rates again.
The market is now rolling over and likely to test the downward trendline established by a series of lower highs in 2015. Currently this level is around 2,030 or so.
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Saturday, April 30, 2016
Stock Market Downtrend Should be Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2092. On Monday the market pulled back to SPX 2072, rallied to 2097 on Tuesday, pulled back to 2082 ahead of the FOMC statement, then rallied to 2100 after it was released. On Thursday the market pulled back to SPX 2086, rallied to 2099, declined to 2052 on Friday and ended the week at 2065. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.80%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: new home sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, the Chicago PMI and Q1 GDP was lower. On the uptick: durable goods, Case-Shiller, pending home sales, the PCE, personal income/spending, and the WLEI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the monthly Payrolls report and the ISMs.
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Stock Market Hits Headwinds On Earnings, Economic Data And Technical's.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market has had a nice run in to the worst possible economic reports, and mostly poor earnings reports. We know why. It's called low rates. Even though we're seeing a slowing down in our own back yard, with a 0.5% reading on GDP, the market has been reluctant to fall. Very frustrating if you're a bear since you seem to be getting exactly what you need, but you haven't been seeing the market fall. Until this week. Finally, some real selling with the Nasdaq down roughly 3%. The S&P 500 down as well, but not as hard, and I'll discuss why that's the case shortly. There are numerous reasons for the fall. We did hit 70 RSI on most of the daily index charts recently, but, more importantly, we also have been showing negative divergences on those same daily index charts, and that can be a lethal combination for the market short- to medium-term.
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Friday, April 29, 2016
Stock Market Strong Elliott Wave Relationship is Developing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
So far, sub-Minute Wave (iii) is more than 3.38 times the size of sub-Minute Wave (i). This suggests a strong Fibonacci relationship in this decline. This is the Wave relationship we are looking for in this decline. I am still looking for Minute Wave [i] to reach the 50-day Moving Average, or possibly exceed it.
At this rate, Minute Wave [i] may be complete today with a bounce on Monday morning. But things may also speed up at any time.
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Friday, April 29, 2016
Stock Market Decline Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX may be in for a short-term bounce as it approaches the 2-hour mid-Cycle support at 2062.81. If so, it may not last. The more important support and potential target for this decline appears to be the 50-day Moving Average at 2028.50.
Friday, April 29, 2016
Ugly Day for Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a very rough day today. The day started out with a nice rally in the morning, they rolled over just after the lunch hour, and got hammered hard into the close, finishing as one of the worst days of the year.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 210.79 at 17,830.76, more than 200 points off the high. The S&P 500 was 19.34 at 2075.81, 24 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was down 52.64 at 4363.99, 93 points off the high.
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