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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

The Stock Market Global Central Bank Put Option / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Bob_Kirtley

Highly accommodative monetary policy and the increased responsiveness of central banks globally to economic shocks and other crises has led to a situation where, if such a shock occurs, then central banks ease monetary policy  quickly in response. This action calms markets, resulting in minimized selloffs and contained volatility while driving equities higher.

This phenomenon can be described as the Central Bank Put Option, as the situation effectively means that investors have a put option given to them by the central banks. We will discuss its origin and how it is currently in play, and then cover different strategies that can be used to take advantage of the put. Following this we will also look to analyse whether the Central Bank Put will be in play next year and how it may be traded going forward.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

SPX Repelled at the 200-day MA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX pulled away from the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.17 and mid-Cycle resistance at 2061.53. Currently it is just above its Orthodox Broadening Top trendline at 2045.00 and Intermediate-term support at 2043.17. The 50-day Moving Average at 2011.90 may not hold the falling SPX at this point. A close above it would invite a gap down at the next open, IMO.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Stock Markets - Have Men and Money Schemes Changed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Doug_Wakefield

Week after week as we have come through 2015, there have been warnings from global markets and the global economy that our current juncture was unsustainable and slowing down. Yet the central banking rock stars were regularly plastered across the “tabloids” as having another interventionist solution, while high speed computers and stock buybacks created a world of “never fear reality” presented to the public, thus helping prices soar back up to produce the latest “all time high” of the day.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Is a Major Stock Market Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Dent

I warned in early October that stocks looked like they were setting up for another sharp crash into the height of the “crash season” in mid-October.

Instead, we got rate cuts in China, rumblings of stronger QE in Europe, and a continued rally at home.

In other words – central banks delayed the inevitable. Again.

So let’s look at where the markets are today…

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

SPX Probing at the 200-day Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX ramped above the Broadening Top lower trendline in the final hour of yesterday’s session. The SPX Premarket is up about 5 points as I write, but still beneath its ultimate resistances, the daily mid-Cycle resistance at 2061.97 and the 200-day Moving Average at 2064.38.

Today and tomorrow are both Pivot days. Tomorrow is the stronger one. I had originally surmised that tomorrow would be a low with a ramp into options expiration. The timing of this retracement changes things, with potentially devastating consequences. A decline through options expiration would certainly magnify the volatility during such an event.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Terrorism.... Weakening Economy... Stock Market Finally Bounces.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

It's old. It's boring. It's pathetic. It's inhuman. It's a lot more than all of that, but what's left to say that hasn't already been said. Terrorism is a sad reality in our world, and will likely never go away in our lifetime, or the lifetime of many generations to come. It seems to be in the DNA of humanity. We had a very sad display of terrorism late Friday night in Paris. Too many perished on suicide bombings. A terrible act toward human life, unfortunately. We're in the business of the stock market, and, of course, the initial reaction of the market was to blast lower after hours on Friday. The S&P 500 was down as many as seventeen points, with fair value included. With the market hanging on by a thread at key, 2020 support on the S&P 500, things looked really bad for the bulls. When terrorism happens a day, or so, when the market is closed, often times the futures start coming back up as the world has grown sadly used to this type of behavior.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 16, 2015

Bond Traders have not been this Short Since Early 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

ZeroHedge reports, “Bond traders have not been this speculatively short Treasuries since early 2010. Since The Fed turned uber hawkish at the last FOMC, and convinced the market that it will raise rates in December - despite dismally dropping data everywhere, speculators have drastically increased their short positions across the entire Treasury spectrum. The last time the world was this short Treasuries, the 10Y yield collapsed from 3.94% to 2.39% in just 3 months.”

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 16, 2015

Markets Reacting to Paris Attack 'Rationally': Asness / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Bloomberg

Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management, joined Stephanie Ruhle, David Westin and Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. He discussed market reaction to the Paris terror attacks and the use of long-term investing to overcome risks.

ERIK SCHATZKER: As I mentioned moments ago, Cliff Asness of AQR is here. Cliff, if we could begin with a little bit on the way investors tend to think about events like the terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday, Matt showed us that things haven't really moved that much. And frankly if you look at the historic record, things don't move that much over time after these horrible incidents. So, again, as the investor, as a man who sits on top of $135 billion and, granted, not all of your strategies would speak to this, why is that the case?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 16, 2015

Stock Market Building Selling Pressure / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Savage

Playing devils advocate and assuming the selling pressure is strong enough to overwhelm central bank efforts to prop markets up, I would like to see the 7 year cycle low complete its mission and at least test the 200 week average.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 16, 2015

Is the Stock Market Ready to Rally Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The last time I wrote, I said I was looking for a bottom in the US stock market around the 12th of November. I honestly thought we would pull back harder than we have. As of Friday November 13th, the SPX has tagged the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the September 29-November 3rd rally near 2022, less than a 5% pull back.

The chart below explains why I believe we have bottomed or are close to bottoming. The cycles suggest a rally into around November 25 from here. I don't know if this will be a failing rally or a new recovery high is on the way. After Thanksgiving we should have another pull back into early December to satisfy the 7/14 week low.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Stock Market Looking For A (Temporary?) Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Stock Market - Another Brutal Monday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: John_Rubino

One of the challenges of managing money is the (increasingly-frequent) need to translate non-financial tragedies into action to protect clients and, yes, profit from the broader world’s horror.

So while most people react to events in Paris with stunned sympathy and/or impotent rage, the financial community is deciding what to buy and sell. And right now it looks like “sell” is winning.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 14, 2015

S&P 2020 Critical....Is Stocks Bear Market Already Here? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

If we look at this market we can see the S&P 500 has lost all of its moving averages, although the 200- and 50-day exponential moving averages are right above today's close. They are both at 2037, so we can still get back fairly easily with one small rally. The problem is directly below. If we visit the S&P 500 daily chart we can see that on September 17 of this year we touched 2020, and then immediately tailed off and fell hard, all the way down to 1871. From there the market rallied once again, and hit 2020 for four candle sticks before finally breaking out. Once it broke out it back tested again with four candle sticks. A breakout then occurred, thus, 2020 is critically important support. Losing 2020 by a few points is not a breakdown, but you get the idea. You don't want to lose 2020 with force.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Discussion of the Stock Market Wave Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX has stopped declining so far at the hourly Cycle Bottom support. It may now be challenging the Broadening Top trendline at 2045.00 from beneath. This may be a sub-Minute Wave (iv) of a Minute Wave [iii], which suggests a further decline to either the 50-day Moving Average at 2007.51 or to Round Number support at 2000.00.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 13, 2015

Stock Market Make or Break, Is the US Heading Towards Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Puru_Saxena

The global economy is slowing down rapidly and it is conceivable that the developed world may face a recession next year. Already, the Japanese economy is contracting and even Europe is barely growing.  Across the pond, the US is still muddling through but the leading economic indicators and all the major Fed regional activity surveys (Figure 1) are suggesting economic weakness ahead. 

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 13, 2015

Inspiration from the World of Sports for Sucessful Investing / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: John_Mauldin

One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly.

I have never sent his letter to you as an Outside the Box, as the copies I get are clearly watermarked and copyrighted. So I was surprised and delighted to learn that the letter is free when I listened to a speech by Howard in which he encouraged everyone to get it. Unlike another hundred-billion-dollar hedge fund company that shall go unnamed, Oaktree evidently thinks that brilliance should be shared.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 13, 2015

US Stock Market: Anatomy of a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Over the last week we (NFTRH) have used market sentiment indicators and index charts to gauge the prospects of finding a high on the post-September relief ‘bounce’ rally.

During August and September market sentiment had become brutally over bearish and this was very dangerous from the bears’ perspective.  We set upside bounce targets for the SPX at 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2100.  The first three were resistance levels (broken support) and the last was the general measurement of the ‘W’ bottom that formed in August and September.  With the extremes in bearish sentiment, it was not so surprising that SPX climbed all the way to just above 2100.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

My start this morning was delayed due to a late work night and early morning dentist’s appointment. I have more activities planned for the day, so my reportage may be spotty.

However, there is good news for our bearish positions this morning. SPX broke down as anticipated with a 2.5 point gap which suggests that selling pressure overwhelmed the always bullish HFTs this morning.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Stock Market Very Negative Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a volatile session today. They popped at the opening, 3-wave, corrective pullback ensued, then they had a very strong rally midday that led to the session highs just under 4680 Nasdaq 100, and 2987 S&P 500. They came down in a 3-wave decline near the close, and then rolled over into the close to cement the negative close for the day.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Global Stocks Bull Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Donald_W_Dony

Strong bull markets normally have a broad participation or breadth base. When that breadth starts to narrow, the short-term outlook for a continuation of the upward trend comes into question.

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