Sunday, August 11, 2019
Social Media Civil War / Politics / Social Media
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The US government has to come up with very very strong legislation for social media, and it has to do that very soon. Because if it doesn’t, it risks those same social media inciting a civil war (that’s no hyperbole, that is real) on American soil.
And beyond as well, but as Donald Trump said about European efforts to curtail Twitter, Facebook et al’s activities, they’re American companies and hence America’s responsibility. Well, cool, but that means you have to do your job, and you ain’t doing it. Those EU efforts by the way were all about financial issues, tax paying etc., not inciting civil wars or being undemocratic. In short, Brussels doesn’t get it yet either.
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Sunday, August 11, 2019
Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.
If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.
But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage and deflation. Here is the 30 year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.
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Sunday, August 11, 2019
Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Submissions
As technology advances and trading innovation continues, many traders want to diversify their investments. The prospect of making more profits have led many into trading markets they never thought possible. Although traders are continually seeking better markets and improved opportunities to explore, not many are in the know of the types of trading instruments available in this digital age. Surprisingly, traders are not the only ones looking to improve their chances of earning more. Even seemingly different markets are now attempting to steal each other's market share. For instance, traders no longer need to buy physical gold or even from a futures contract to participate in the movement of gold prices; instead, they can now buy an exchange traded fund (ETF). With that being said, similar scenarios are now possible with stock, currencies, commodities, and other investments. Hence, traders generally have a wealth of diversified opportunities they can leverage to their individual circumstances.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 10, 2019
US Corporate Debt Is at Risk of a Flash Crash / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
The world is awash in debt.
While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape.
The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more.
But regardless, everyone’s “real” debt is likely much bigger, since the official totals miss a lot of unfunded liabilities and other obligations.
Debt is an asset owned by the lender. It has a price, which—like anything else—can go up or down. The main variable is the lender’s confidence in repayment, which is always uncertain.
Saturday, August 10, 2019
EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: QUANTO
The sceptre of recesion is growing worldwide. German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in almost a decade when it reported numbers in June. We covered it here The result was country’s flattest yield curve since the financial crisis.
Saturday, August 10, 2019
Neoliberalism Has Met Its Match in China / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Ellen_Brown
When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, commentators were asking why. According to official data, the economy was rebounding, unemployment was below 4% and gross domestic product growth was above 3%. If anything, by the Fed’s own reasoning, it should have been raising rates.
Market pundits explained that we’re in a trade war and a currency war. Other central banks were cutting their rates, and the Fed had to follow suit in order to prevent the dollar from becoming overvalued relative to other currencies. The theory is that a cheaper dollar will make American products more attractive in foreign markets, helping our manufacturing and labor bases.
Over the weekend, President Trump followed the rate cuts by threatening to impose, on Sept. 1, a new 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese products. China responded by suspending imports of U.S. agricultural products by state-owned companies and letting the value of the yuan drop. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 770 points, its worst day in 2019. The war was on.
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Saturday, August 10, 2019
Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market and bond yields recovered today from an early morning decline. Meanwhile, financial markets have exhibited some extreme flight-to-quality over the past few days. Today’s headlines:
- Lots of gaps
- Put/Call ratio remains high
- Flight to quality: part 1
- Flight to quality: part 2
- Similarities between today and 2016
- Bullish Percent falling to a new low
- Gold spiked (again)
Saturday, August 10, 2019
The Cold, Hard Math Tells Netflix Stock Could Crash 70% / Companies / Internet
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s official... it’s the beginning of the end for Netflix (NFLX).As you may have heard, the online video company made a troubling announcement...
This quarter, for the first time ever, it lost American subscribers. Hundreds of thousands of them.
The stock plunged more than 11% on the news.
I’ve been “sounding the alarm” on Netflix’s troubled business since last July when its stock was trading above $400.
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Friday, August 09, 2019
Our Custom Index Charts Suggest Stock Markets Are In For A Wild Ride / Stock-Markets / Austrian Economics
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past week, our members have been emailing us and asking us “what’s going to happen next” and “any updates on the move in metals and the US stock markets”. With this incredible downside move prompted by the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failure, it certainly appears that the markets are poised for something big and dramatic.
We dove into our custom indicator charts to try to get a better gauge of the current market environment and to help illustrate that our research team has been all over this move for months. Before we get started, we want to urge our followers to read the following research posts :
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Friday, August 09, 2019
Bitcoin Price Triggers Ahead / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
With the stock market going down, Bitcoin is viewed as a safe haven asset. But is this story really important? We have a different factor to focus on.
Bitcoin goes up, the stock market goes down. This is the kind of story we have seen now. And it is an appealing one. In an article on the CNBC website, we read:
Bitcoin soared 9% on Monday, performing like a safe haven asset as it edged past $11,000 for the first time since around mid-July.
The price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed as high as $11,860, according to CoinDesk data, hitting a more than 3-week high. Bitcoin’s value now accounts for nearly 70% of the global crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap.
Friday, August 09, 2019
Walmart Is Coming for Amazon / Companies / Retail Sector
By: Robert_Ross
Late last year, the company overtook Apple to became the third-largest online retailer in the US. Only Amazon and eBay are larger.
Walmart is quickly growing its online presence by scooping up smaller online retailers like Jet.com, which sells everything from laptops to sunscreen—often at a healthy discount.
Walmart bought Jet in 2016 for $3.3 billion. Since then, Walmart’s online sales have shot up 78%—from $13.4 billion to $23.8 billion.
And it shows no sign of slowing down. Last quarter, Walmart’s online sales grew 43%.
Thursday, August 08, 2019
We Are So Stupid When It Comes To Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
In 3rd grade, my teacher had a sign up at the front of the class which read: PUT BRAIN IN GEAR BEFORE ENGAGING MOUTH
This made an impression upon me as a 3rd grader. Yet, many adults have yet to learn this lesson.
It seems that every single analyst that you read regarding the gold market parrots the exact same thesis: If the dollar rises gold falls, and if the dollar falls gold rises. This is the first point in which these analysts have not put their brains in gear before engaging their mouth.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Technical Analysis of US Major Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Justin_Weinger
Microsoft (MSFT)
At the present time, Microsoft is one of the best-performing major US stocks, up 59% since January 2019. Even though the tech sector had quite a bumpy ride for the past year and a half, the major software company continued to advance higher, exceeding the $1 trillion market cap valuation.
Thursday, August 08, 2019
Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups For Technical Traders / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil. If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels.
We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move. Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Currency Wars Are Wars That Gold Wins in the End / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
July nonfarm payrolls came in line with expectations, confirming the strength of the U.S. labor market. So far so good. With the markets more focused now on the escalation of the trade war triggered by Trump’s tweet on Thursday., she stock market plunged while gold rallied. Can the upcoming news take gold higher still?
July Payrolls in Line with Expectations
The U.S. created 164,000 jobs in July, following a strong increase of 193,000 in June (after a downward revision). The nonfarm payrolls were in line with expectations and widespread, but with a leading role of education and health services (+66,000) and professional and business services (+38,000). Retail trade, mining, utilities, and information cut jobs.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Silver Setting Up 70s Style Rally In The Midst Of Financial Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
We are currently at an important point of the economic cycle. The end or peak of debt-based assets, and the significant appreciation of real assets like gold and silver.
An example of the last time we were in a similar position is the late 70s. The Dow was at or near peak levels after a multi-decade bull market, while gold and silver was in the midst (or end) of a consolidation (or correction).
The Dow could only start a new bull market after gold and silver had huge blow-off tops.
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Wednesday, August 07, 2019
Are You Still Trying To “Fade” The Bond Market Rally? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
For weeks, if not months, I have been reading one bearish bond article after another. In fact, many of these same writers have been arguing with me for months about the bond rally I expected back in November of 2018. One suggests that this rally is really a “fake,” whereas another has been strongly suggesting that investors fade this rally, with many more supporting their opinions. The problem is that these analysts have been trying to “fade” this rally for the last 10-15% up. Yet, I will gladly bank my “fake” 20% profits on this trade.
As each week goes by, I continue to chuckle about how many people do not understand the context of the markets upon which they opine. Remember how certain analysts and investors were that rates were only headed higher back in November of 2018?
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Wednesday, August 07, 2019
Gold and Silver Boosted by first Fedrate cut since Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: John_Lee
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday (July 31, 2019) for the first time in more than a decade.It was trying to keep America’s record-long economic expansion going by insulating the economy from mounting global threats.
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Wednesday, August 07, 2019
The Fourth Turning Trump Economics / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
In Part One of this article I laid out the unsustainable economic conditions which will drive the next phase of this Fourth Turnings and detailed the economic factors which drove the previous three American Fourth Turnings.
Strauss and Howe, when writing The Fourth Turning in 1997, did not know the exact circumstances and events which would propel the next Turning. But their study of economic and demographic trends along with the attitudes of generations and historical precedents in prior Fourth Turnings, led them to conclude the driving factors of this Crisis would be debt, global disorder and civic decay.
As I watch what is currently happening in this country and around the world, it is evident to me they nailed it. The volcanic eruption in 2008 unleashed a torrent of molten lava, which continues to flow along channels of distress, but is currently threatening to burst free of these channels and wreak worldwide financial and physical devastation. A multitude of possibilities described by Strauss and Howe below are already happening or will happen in the next few years.
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Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Where's the Stock Market bottom? Is this IT? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend. Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT? The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?”
Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for. This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets. Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we've been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders.
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