Saturday, August 01, 2020
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing this multi-part research article, today we are going to explore some more immediate (shorter-term) technical setups. If you missed the first part of this research article, please take a minute to review it before continuing because there is quite a bit of information and related article links that are very important for you to understand this next article. You can view it here.
In the first part of this article, we discussed how our team evaluates a proper market perspective and how we build a consolidated narrative for our subscribers. Some times, it is not easy for us to build a suitable narrative or decide on risk factors as our team may not completely agree with one another. At times like this, we’ll often decide that no action is better than taking any action at all. Generally, though, our team is able to adopt a consensus narrative related to portfolio allocation levels, general market trends and specific target trade setups for the next 5 to 10+ trading days.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Steinbock
As US economy is heading toward its disastrous 2nd quarter results, the Trump administration is considering the expansion of the trade war to finance, which could destabilize the US dollar and derail the post-pandemic global economy.
After its failure in the COVID-19 containment and the expected -53 percent plunge of real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter, President Trump’s re-election campaign is in serious trouble. To deflect the blame, his administration has launched a series of provocative measures against China thereby fueling elevated bilateral tensions.
Worse, the White House is reportedly considering moving from a bilateral trade war to an effort to exclude China from the dollar-denominated international payment network. In Beijing, that would be seen as weaponization of US dollar.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Commercial real estate investors are in an especially precarious position should another financial crisis unfold.
A July 18 Marketwatch article titled "The open secret in commercial real estate is that owners regularly take cash out of properties ..." says:
Borrowers, ahead of this [year's] downturn, pulled more equity out of U.S. commercial buildings than ever before. ...
Debt relief conversations already started in April ... between the hardest-hit commercial property borrowers and their lenders.
Since then, delinquent commercial mortgage-backed securities loans have climbed to nearly 10%, rivaling the worst levels of the global financial crisis [in 2007-2009].
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last week, I put out an article outlining my expectation for a pullback in GLD before we head to the 200+ region. Within the comments section, I outlined my plan as to how I am going to play for a potential pullback. However, that pullback has not yet materialized.
For those that have followed me closely for years, you know that I have been heavily long physical metals and mining stocks since I started accumulating them again in 2015, after calling the top in 2011.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity.
Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but as we will see, there are signs that this may all be about to change, and fast.
We'll start by looking at the year-to-date arithmetic chart for Light Crude on which we can see all of the dramatic developments this year. After deteriorating early in the year, the oil price accelerated to the downside, plunging early in March with a big gap down and then it continued to weaken into mid-April when a sudden huge drop left some contracts not just worthless, but actually having negative worth, meaning that if you took delivery you had to in effect pay someone to take it away, for an amount that exceeded what the oil was actually worth. Clearly, this was a situation that was untenable because so much depends on the oil price, so the Fed and the Military–Industrial complex worked all the levers at their disposal to get the price back up again, which of course included creating trillions of new dollars to throw at the problem, and to throw at the markets generally, especially the "window dressing" FAANG stocks. Up to now this has worked and we have seen a recovery rally of astounding proportions in the stock markets, especially the tech sector, and a respectable recovery in the oil price, and what makes all this even more astounding is that it has happened as the real world economy has been frozen by widespread lockdowns, the main purpose of which is to kill the velocity of money so that the Fed can print trillions and buy up everything without it feeding through immediately into hyperinflation—that will come later.
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We get a lot of questions from individuals every week. Our research posts contain a lot of varied examples of Technical Analysis, Economic Data Points, Advanced Price Theory, and other more obscure analysis techniques. Yet, sometimes our readers want to know more – how do we read the tea leaves to try to adopt a consensus approach to trading, investing, and hedging the global markets at times like these?
The easiest answer is that we are a team of technical researchers and analysts. Every day we are watching our proprietary modeling systems, various market symbols, and technical/price setups that occur throughout the globe. Because we specialize in US stocks, ETFs, and Futures, our concern is how the US market will react to these impulses. Having said that, we explore ideas about how capital will flow from one asset class to another over time as various rotations in the global market take place.
Every week, we communicate different points of view and do so across different time frames which provides you with a full view of long and short term expectations and potential moves for stocks and commodities.
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler : Why didn’t coronavirus sink America into a depression? The answer can be summed up in two words, and it’s not “stimulus checks.”
As you know, lockdowns have wrecked restaurants, hotels, and airlines. But millions of Americans who can do their jobs from a computer haven’t missed a day of work. They’re working from home, which would’ve been impossible not all that long ago.
We have “the cloud” to thank. Most folks are vaguely familiar with the importance of “the cloud.” But it’s no exaggeration to say it’s a top 3 tech breakthrough of the last 20 years, right up there with the smartphone.
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold has jumped above $1,850 amid expectations of new stimulus, worries about the pace of economic recovery, and concerns about rising tensions between the U.S. and China.Houston, we have a problem! Please take a look at the chart below that presents the U.S. initial jobless claims. What do you see?
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
How to Finance an Investment Property / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: Sumeet_Manhas
If you have decided to invest in real estate, then you'll likely need to finance your new investment property.
Even if you have financed a personal property before, like your home, you'll discover that funding of an investment property is a bit different. Discussing your plans with a free online mortgage broker can help you better make sense of this process.
Finding the right financing option for you and your property doesn't have to be as overwhelming as it may first appear. There are a lot of things you can do to make the process easier on yourself. If you want to learn more about how to finance an investment property, continue reading.
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Avi_Gilburt
For many years, I have noted to the members of Elliottwavetrader that I have not been a fan of banks. In fact, they are on my list of stocks that I intend on shorting once we move towards the 2023 time frame.
But, while many are focused upon the upside potential in various banks in the coming 2-3 years, I have been quite concerned about the goals of many of these banks, based upon some of the moves they have made over the past few years.
As an example, a few years ago, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) opened its door to public accounts. This was a major shift in Goldman’s business practices, which had many scratching their head. But, I was not scratching my head, as it made perfect sense to me. In fact, I even wrote about Goldman’s “unexpected” move, and why they likely moved down this path.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist. We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes. The NASDAQ (NQ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting and concerns about future earnings/revenues continue to shock investors. It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “Fed Recovery” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price correction we’ve experienced over the past 40+ years.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
With silver breaking out decisively to the upside, bears are running for cover.
We had noted in our July 13th News Alert, “We are paying especially close attention to the bull vs. bear tug-of-war in the silver market around $19/oz. If the bulls yank prices decisively above that level on a strong close, short covering by capitulating bears could help drive a powerful breakout rally.”
That’s exactly what happened. The rally really accelerated once the $20/level was taken out last Monday. The bears have capitulated big time!
Also being forced to re-think their positions are gold-only bulls within the precious metals camp. Although they represent a minority viewpoint, some stubbornly cling to the view that only gold is sound money. They view silver as an industrial metal and tend to shun it as an investment.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) / Politics / Shopping
By: N_Walayat
Anika's first supermarket shop in 4 months due to Covid-19. We're all masked up but most shoppers have still not got the message! And in Another sign that the UK is fast relaxing it's covid-19 infection spread mitigation measures is supermarkets such as Tesco scrapping their one way shop arrow systems. Whilst it remains to be seen if the country is sleep walking towards another second more deadly pandemic peak in a few months time. Nevertheless Tesco and other supermarkets cannot be blamed for taking such actions because most shoppers had already abandoned following the rules many weeks ago, especially following revelations that government ministers and advisors themselves had failed to follow social distancing rules such as Dominick Cummings all without any consequences.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
So you have just clipped your new budgies wings or are contemplating clipping it's wings. However, your wondering how long will it take for the budgie to grow new flight feathers and start flying again is answered in our latest budgie / parakeet care video where we have 2 budgies. the Green budgie has a total of 20 flight feathers clipped whilst the Blue budgie has 12 clipped. So lets find out how long it takes to grow the flight feather back and more importantly how long before they are able to fly again.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: OilPrice_Com
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price made a new all-time nominal high today at $1,945 per ounce. This move should not come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to the current financial landscape. The FED has injected an unprecedented amount of new money/debt into the economy since March in efforts to avoid a collapse from the impact of the Covid-19 virus and subsequent restrictions of business activity globally. Over $6 trillion in stimulus so far is roughly double the entire amount injected during the financial crisis of 2008/09. And they are just getting started.
The Federal Reserve has stated that stimulus efforts will last for years and they have committed to do “whatever it takes” to keep the economy afloat. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has shot from $4 trillion pre-crisis to $7 trillion today. This is the highest level on record by a wide margin and the fastest it has ever increased. And this is before the 2nd round of stimulus, which is currently being negotiated. While there are plenty of dollar bulls amidst a global dollar shortage, they have been incorrect in their bullish outlook thus far. The dollar index has dropped from a high of 103 on March 20th to just 94, a significant drop in just a few months to the lowest level since September of 2018.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
As shown in the graph below, the first half of 2020 produced an unusual change in the relationship between gold prices, stock prices and recessions, something that has only happened twice before in the last fifty years. Each of the two previous times this has occurred after a long run up in stock prices, it has been part of a cyclical change to a cycle favoring gold over stocks for a decade or more thereafter.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
During the bull market years between 2000 and 2011 the US dollar and currencies played a key role in the PM complex bull market. Tonight I would like to go back and visit some of these old charts and see how they pertain to our current bull market.
Lets start with a simple GOLD:USD ratio chart that goes back to the 2011 all time high in gold. The bottom for the ratio came in toward the end of 2015 and has been slowly rising in what we can now call a bullish rising 5 point rising wedge reversal pattern. The 2011 bear market in the ratio ended in June of 2019 when the top rail was broken to the upside. Less than a year later the price action took out the top rail of the blue bullish rising wedge reversal pattern and is starting to impulse higher. This is a very bullish development.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m about to show you the most important table in all of investing. Please look at it closely.
Below, you’ll find the world’s 10 largest publicly traded companies in 2000, 2010, and 2020.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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