Monday, July 20, 2020

US Housing Market Collapse Second Phase Pending / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our research into what we believe is the US pending real estate collapse, we’ll explore more data supporting our expectations.  In the first part of this article, we highlighted the Case-Shiller data showing home price levels had already exceeded 2006-07 levels and how earning levels have collapsed after the COVID-19 virus event.  Our research team believes thee extremely high price levels, combined with the uncertainty of future earnings, unemployment, layoffs, and other economic contractions will result in a late 2020 or early 2021 shift in the residential real estate market. 

We already know that commercial real estate has experienced one of the worst declines in decades.  Delinquencies have skyrocketed and thousands of US businesses have entered bankruptcies.  Main street and consumer services sectors will likely continue to feel the pain related to the post-COVID-19 economy for many months still.  The question before all investors should be “how will the price levels reflect the changes in earning and economic data throughout this transition?”

Monday, July 20, 2020

Capitalising on the AI Mega-trend / Companies / AI

By: N_Walayat

Machine Intelligence has become a broad church that has fragmented or branched off into a myriad of sectors and the number keeps growing each year. Many years ago I broke the machine intelligence mega-trend down into 10 key sectors to invest in.

Monday, July 20, 2020

Getting Started with Machine Learning / InvestorEducation / AI

By: N_Walayat

Of course investing in the AI stocks is just ONE means of profiting from the exponential machine learning mega-trend. Another way that everyone should consider is to LEARN to program and train neural nets which these days is a LOT easier to do than was the case 10 years ago!

No, you don't need to rush out and invest in a $15,000 3990x system with 4 Titan GPU's and 256gb of ram to get started with machine learning.

Monday, July 20, 2020

Why Moores Law is NOT Dead! / Companies / Computing

By: N_Walayat

For as long as I can remember the argument has been that Moores Law (doubling in cpu processing power every 2 years) was always just about to end due to the inability to shrink the cpu dies further and thus an end to exponential increase in processing power that is usually measured in cpu transistor count , I did not agree with this 5 years ago when I first started writing about the exponential AI mega-trend where to date it has not turned out to be true on either transistor count or the COMPUTE power basis which is what people should actually be focused upon, after all that is what one actually utilises COMPUTE POWER.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Help the Economy by Going Outside / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US. The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying.

A lower mortality rate helps, but it’s still too high. The sheer number of sick people is straining hospital capacity some places. Viruses don’t care what anyone thinks; they just spread until something stops them.

The economy can’t recover if people fear infection everywhere they go. We need to balance public health and economic necessity.

Fortunately, scientists are learning how to reduce risk with fewer economic side effects.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Stock Market Fantasy Finance: Follow the Money / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger takes a look at the latest moves in the financial and precious metals markets, and updates his investment strategy moving into late summer.

I've only just returned from the majesty of Georgian Bay, where the first fishing derby of the season had me summarily trounced by my female partner 12 to 5, with most of her catches in the 1- to 2-pound category and mine barely larger than the lure that attracted them.

Adding to this humiliation was that, despite that I have harangued incessantly about the urgency of "setting the hook" once you get a strike, I lost four 1-pound-plus bass within three feet of the dinghy by failing to properly execute that about which I constantly lecture.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Did the Stock Market Bubble Just Pop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Doug_Wakefield

It has been 18 months since I closed Best Minds Inc. Today I am teaching math. I love math because even when opinions appear totally wrong, math is still based on proofs.

So let’s prove that we are in a massive financial bubble that today, may have finally popped, even with all the “help” from central planners of market manipulation.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Quick Souring of the S&P 500 Stock Market Mood / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

We got that extension of Friday's rally on Monday, as I called for. Vaccine hype news. Good for bulls with tight exit orders – I managed to take a 55-points profit off the table. But big tech (think Microsoft, Amazon) suffered with talk of its bubble rising, U.S. – China tensions increased, and California sweepingly rolled back its reopening.

Spooky stuff for stocks, and they tanked. The brightening outlook I discussed after Friday's session, didn't last all that long. But is the selling over now, or we better brace for some more?

Sunday, July 19, 2020

The Six-Year Jobs Recession / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

Most of us work for some form of paycheck, even the self-employed. Few subsist on their own efforts. Even retirees, politicians, and welfare recipients live off someone’s labor, if not their own.

Savings, if you have any, are the result of past labor. That makes a job shortage problematic for everyone, not just the jobless.

The June US employment report showed some welcome improvement. Businesses brought back many workers as parts of the country reopened. That’s great but it was only a start. We need several more months like that, and it’s not at all clear they are coming.

To be fair, there isn’t a lot of clarity when we look back at past data, either.

Saturday, July 18, 2020

Silver Demand Exploding! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver investment demand is exploding in recent months, skyrocketing higher in wildly-unprecedented fashion!  That has catapulted silver sharply higher since mid-March’s COVID-19-lockdown stock panic.  Accelerating even in this usually-weak summer season, the massive capital inflows deluging into silver show no signs of abating.  This is very bullish for silver, yet most traders remain unaware it is happening.

While silver prices are fairly-widely followed, the data revealing the underlying fundamentals driving this metal is sparse.  The best silver global supply-and-demand data is only published once a year by the venerable Silver Institute in its outstanding World Silver Surveys.  The latest covering 2019 was released in April, and is essential reading for all traders interested in silver.  One key trend is very relevant to today.

Last year global silver demand edged up an ever-so-slight 0.4% to 991.8m ounces worldwide.  Every demand category fell except for two, net physical investment and net investment in exchange-traded funds.  The former rose a respectable 12.3% to 186.1m ounces.  It makes sense investors’ interest in silver should grow with its price climbing 15.3% in 2019.  That translated into far faster growth in silver ETFs.

Saturday, July 18, 2020

Tesco Scraps Covid Safe One Way Arrow Supermarket Shopping System / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

Another sign that the UK is fast relaxing it's covid-19 infection spread mitigation measures is supermarkets such as Tesco scrapping their one way shop arrow systems. Whilst it remains to be seen if the country is sleep walking towards another second more deadly pandemic peak in a few months time. Nevertheless Tesco and other supermarkets cannot be blamed for taking such actions because most shoppers had already abandoned following the rules many weeks ago, especially following revelations that government ministers and advisors themselves had failed to follow social distancing rules such as Dominick Cummings all without any consequences.

Friday, July 17, 2020

The Rise of Online Pawnbroking / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold Rallies Together With U.S. Covid-19 Cases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The number of cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. have been rallying very quickly in last weeks, giving way only to the gold prices, which have surpassed $1,800.

It’s not easy to terminate the viruses, especially that they are not quite alive. Indeed, the pandemic of the coronavirus is still not over, as the chart below shows. The global number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has surpassed 220,000 last week – and the trend is still upward.

Friday, July 17, 2020

In Weaponizing the Dollar Trump’s Lieutenants Flunk Finance 101 / Politics / US Dollar

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In a scoop, Bloomberg reported last week that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and some of President Trump’s top lieutenants are considering fully weaponizing the U.S. dollar to undermine Hong Kong’s financial system. The idea has been hatched to punish China for its recent aggressions in Hong Kong.

Just what does the weaponization of the greenback entail? The U.S. dollar is the international currency. It is the major reserve currency held by central banks, the most prominent currency used to denominate debt, and the unit of account for invoicing goods and services in international trade. The dollar’s stable value means that it is used widely for both international payment and interbank transactions, as well as for official intervention in foreign-exchange markets. In short, the dollar is entrenched at the center of the international financial system. This gives the United States an “exorbitant privilege,” as the Frenchman Valéry Giscard d’ Estaing pointedly put it. For the U.S., the benefits are incalculable.

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold & Silver Measured Moves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The next few weeks are certain to attract much attention to precious metals.  Hardly anyone can argue that Gold has not experienced an incredible upside price rally over the last 12+ months.  Recently, Gold closed above $1800 for the first time since 2011.  Our researchers believe the next target is $1935.  Keep reading to learn why we believe this is the next major price target for Gold.

Gold Weekly Price Analysis

Over the past 18+ months, Gold continues to develop price patterns that seem to be replicating going forward.  This pattern consists of an advance in price followed by consolidation/rotation in price to set up a new momentum base.  The example of this price advance from May 2019 to August 2019 consisted of a $267 upside price advance (just over 20%).  Subsequent advances were similar in size. November 2019 to March 2020 advance rose $248.  March 2020 to April 2020 advance rose $325. 

Friday, July 17, 2020

The Bizarre Mathematics Of How Negative Interest Rates Create Stratospheric Profits / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Dan_Amerman

There is an increasingly good chance that the United States could end up following Europe and Japan, and that the Federal Reserve could use its vast powers of monetary creation to force a move to negative interest rates.

If that deeply unnatural event happens, it will invert and distort the very foundations of investment pricing, in ways that are little understood by most investors today.

It will also - for a time - create an unnatural source of profits that most investors have no idea about, because it has never happened before in the United States (and is still in the early stages in the United Kingdom).

Thursday, July 16, 2020

From a Stocks Bull Market Far, Far Away, Virus Doomsday Scenerio! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It took me some 6 years from late 1987 to Early 1994 before the cookie finally crumbled and I understood the how to invest in stocks that has subsequently been tested in EVERY bear market and market collapse since, an understanding that has proven to be RESILIANT, so unless the worlds is about to end, or the West turns communist and starts seizing or heavily taxing capital, then the contents of this extensive article should shine the way towards profitable investing for decades to come. With the usual disclaimer that investing in the stock market is high risk. And that you are responsible for your investing decisions and any profits or losses that may occur.

Investor psychology tends to be the exact opposite to that which is required for successful investing i.e. Investors tend to fail to buy when they should buy i.e. when stocks are relatively cheap, instead most tend to buy at the worst possible time in terms of the bull / bear market cycles. And even if they do manage to hit the buy button near the right time, soon afterwards tend to become fearful of every dip, bad news event that erodes the few percent of paper profit they may have gained and thus tend to sell out of their investments too early on hopes that they can buy back later at a lower price, which rarely happens, so are left chasing stock prices ever higher as good stocks are good because they tend to go UP in price!

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Fiscal Cliffs and the Self-destructing Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun.

 It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is "not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates." Therefore, the stock market does not have to worry about a contraction in the rate of money printing any time soon. However, equities could soon plunge due to the crash in the amount of fiscal support offered to the economy.

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Silver Is At A Critical Point Based On US Dollar Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how  there were virtually no significant Silver rallies over the last 50 years during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

Betting on a silver rally when the US Dollar index is in decline makes for great odds. There have been two significant Silver rallies in the last 50 years (marked out with rectangles on the chart below). During both of these, the US dollar index was in serious decline.

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Dow Stock Market Crash Watch - Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: readtheticker

Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.

Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch

But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.

Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.

The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.